heating and cooling than today's new homes. (It should be noted that any homes built under the PATH program during 2000-2004 would qualify for the energy efficient new home tax credit mentioned in Chapter 2, although the tax credit analysis in Chapter 2 did not consider the PATH goals.) Table 25 shows the energy, carbon, and energy bill savings projected to come from meeting the goals of the PATH program. In 2010, annual energy savings relative to the reference case are projected at 140.7 trillion Btu (1 percent), saving Americans $1.4 billion and reducing carbon emissions by 3.1 million metric tons (1 percent). In 2020, the projected savings are 307.8 trillion Btu (2 percent of the reference case projection), $2.9 billion in consumer energy bills, and 6.7 million metric tons of carbon emissions (2 percent).

Table 25. Projected Energy Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions for Successful PATH Program Goals In New Housing, 2005, 2010, and 2020

Source: Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System runs RSPATH.D040799C and BLDEF.D040699A.

Energy Star Products

The Energy Star Products program promotes the use of energy-efficient appliances through labeling efficient products and educating consumers about the benefits of energy efficiency. Current programs cover products such as air conditior:ers, televisions, and office equipment. Many Energy Star programs have the potential to produce carbon emissions reductions in addition to those projected for measures contained in the reference case. Others are already represented in the reference case.

The proposed fiscal year 2000 budget calls for new funding to support the launch of 25 new Energy Star product lines.63 Possible candidates for the Energy Star label include compact fluorescent lamps, ventilation fans, ducts, water coolers, and internal power supplies. Because the products that would be added to the Energy Star lineup have not been identified as yet, the extent of the potential energy savings is not quantifiable. Two examples of recent additions can, however, be used to illustrate possible savings.

The Energy Star TVs and VCRs program was implemented in 1998 to cut the amount of power each device uses while in standby mode. The current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the manufacturers and EPA is to restrict standby power to 3 watts for TVs and 4 watts for VCRs. Currently, EPA reports that TV shipments show a 30-percent compliance rate with the program. EPA plans to strengthen the MOU to a 1 watt restriction within the next several years. The AEO99 reference case explicitly added an estimate for the effect of the current MOU in residential households. Over the next 10 years, it is projected that 168 trillion Btu of electricity will be saved (cumulatively), accumulating $3.9 billion dollars of energy bill savings, and abating 8.9 million metric tons of carbon emissions cumulatively (Table 26). In 2010, the program is projected to save 30 trillion Btu of delivered electricity (0.7 percent of residential electricity use) and to reduce carbon emissions by 1.5 million metric tons (0.4 percent) relative to the reference case projections.

Report to Congress on Federal Climate Change Expenditures,” p. 11.

Personal communication with the Energy Star program manager, April 5, 1999.

i

Table 28. Projected Residential Electricity Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions for the Energy Star TV/VCR Program in the AEO99 Reference Case, 2005, 2010, and 2020

Source: Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System runs BLDDEF.D040699A and RSESTAR.D0407998.

Another Energy Star program just getting started has the goal of improving the energy efficiency of refrigerated vending machines by 25 percent. One recent estimate puts annual electricity consumption by refrigerated vending machines at about 7.5 billion kilowatthours per year.65 If the program goals were met, annual electricity consumption for the machines would be reduced to about 5.6 billion kilowatthours per year, saving about 1.9 billion kilowatthours per year. The energy savings would translate into 0.3 million metric tons of carbon emissions avoided in 2010. Because the typical lifetime of a vending machine is 7 to 10 years, it would take a minimum of 7 to 10 years from the time the efficient vending machines are widely available for the entire 25 percent savings to be possible. Some energy savings could be realized earlier if owners decide to install energy-efficient lighting components when existing machines are refurbished (normally after 3 to 5 years of service). The success of the program may depend ultimately on the willingness of bottlers, who typically own the vending machines, to buy new machines that are more expensive initially but have lower maintenance costs. Any energy bill savings would go to the company that pays the utility bills where the vending machine is located, rather than to the owner.

As the above examples illustrate, many Energy Star programs can produce carbon savings in addition to those projected to result from measures included in EIA's reference case. As with many voluntary programs, however, it is possible that many of the actions are included in the reference case and do not create additional savings.

Million Solar Roofs

DOE's Million Solar Roofs (MSR) program is an example of a national voluntary program aimed at increasing the penetration of photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies. The MSR program goal is to facilitate the installation of 1 million solar roofs by 2010. Among the activities fostered to accomplish this goal, the program commits its partners to a variety of actions. Some of the actions MSR partners can undertake include:

• Committing to install solar equipment in a certain number of structures

Undertaking activities to reduce barriers to the adoption of solar technologies by identifying financial incentives for solar installations, establishing net metering for photovoltaics, and modifying codes and standards for solar installations

"Program goals and estimate of annual electricity consumption are from "Shaking out Savings." Association of Energy Services Professionals. Strategies, Vol. 10 No. 1 (Winter 1999), p. 7. The consumption and inventory figures in this article are actually closer to figures for canned beverage vending machines found in Arthur D. Little, Inc., Energy Savings Potential for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (June 1996), which estimated annual consumption for canned beverage vendors at about 7 billion kilowatthours in 1994. *See the Million Solar Roof web site, www.eren.doe.gov/millionroofs/.

Table 27 shows the total energy, carbon, and energy bill savings projected to result from successful realization of the MSR program goals. It should be noted that a portion of the committed units are included in the reference case to account for the energy savings associated with installations under the MSR program. Savings included in the reference case are included in the totals shown in Table 27.

Table 27. Projected Energy Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions for Successful Million Solar Roofs Program, 2005, 2010, and 2020

Source: Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System runs RCNOSOL.D040799A and RCMSPV.D040899C.

The impacts of the following programs are difficult to quantify because of the voluntary, informational, and/or crosscutting nature of their activities. A qualitative discussion is presented to describe the types of services and benefits that could come from the programs.

Energy-Efficient Buildings and Energy Smart Schools

Energy Star programs also exist for commercial buildings and newly constructed homes. The Energy Star Buildings and Green Lights Partnership is a voluntary partnership between U.S. organizations, DOE, and EPA to promote energy efficiency in commercial and industrial facility space. Participants receive technical information, customized support services, public relations assistance, and access to a broad range of resources and tools. Program literature states that U.S. organizations could save an estimated $130 billion by 2010 and reduce their buildings' energy use by up to 30 percent. By 2010, EPA expects this partnership to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 24 million metric tons carbon equivalent. As of November 1998, the program reported 3,000 organizations participating in the partnership. The program focuses first on energy-efficient lighting upgrades, typically the most cost-effective improvement for commercial buildings. It has enjoyed some success, with 2.8 billion feet of commercial and industrial floorspace upgraded (primarily lighting upgrades) by the end of 1997. EPA reports $514 million in annual energy cost savings from the completed upgrades. 67 The NEMS commercial module includes the effects of this program in its reference case assumptions.

Energy Smart Schools is a new program announced in October 1998 that would garner some of the benefit of the proposed increase in CCTI funding. The initiative proposes to bring together public and private sector resources to cut schools' energy bills 25 percent by 2010, providing savings to be reinvested in education. Energy Smart Schools is primarily an informational and outreach program. This program cuts across several other DOE programs, helping individual schools access existing programs such as Rebuild America, Energy Star, the Million Solar Roofs initiative, and other national, State, and local programs that provide direct technical assistance, tools, and training to schools. Although the program goal is explicitly stated, the potential effects of any informational program are difficult to quantify. Projecting the effects of this program is complicated by the fact that many of the actual savings would be the direct result of other programs and would be counted by those program sponsors as well.

"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Helping Build a Better Future-ENERGY STAR Buildings and Green Lights 1997 Year in Review (Washington, DC, April 1998).

Federal Energy Management Program

The mission of the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) is to reduce the cost of government by advancing energy efficiency, water conservation, and the use of solar and other renewable technology. This mission has been shaped by several Federal laws and Executive Orders, including the Federal energy reduction goals set forth in the National Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT) and Executive Order 12902 in 1994. EPACT mandates a 20-percent reduction in energy consumption in Federal buildings by fiscal year 2000, when measured against a fiscal year 1985 baseline on a Btu-per-square-foot basis. Executive Order 12902 requires agencies to achieve a 30-percent reduction by fiscal year 2005.

FEMP activities to help agencies meet their energy goals include creation of partnerships, resource leveraging. technology transfer, and training and support. The fiscal year 2000 budget request includes an increase in funding of $8 million (34 percent) over the 1999 FEMP budget. The nature of FEMP as an organization providing services to other Federal agencies makes it difficult to quantify the effects of additional funding. However, an indication of the benefits gained through FEMP funding can be provided by outlining the progress made toward helping Federal agencies meet their energy reduction goals:

• By the end of fiscal year 1998, the Government had decreased energy consumption in buildings by 15.2 percent per square foot since 1985-halfway to its goal of achieving a 30-percent reduction by 2005.

Energy efficiency efforts have resulted in cumulative savings of $6.3 billion in the Government's energy bill compared to a 1985 baseline.

Carbon emissions from energy used in buildings fell by 2 million metric tons from 1985 to 1996.

Funding increases are aimed at accelerating the use of innovative multi-billion-dollar contracts that leverage privatesector funds for Federal savings; increasing procurement of energy efficiency and renewable energy products; expanding the opportunities for solar power, and addressing Federal energy opportunities arising from utility restructuring and green power, other FEMP activities.

Energy-Efficient Buildings Technologies

68

The CCTI budget proposes an increase of $49 million (51 percent) over the 1999 budget for the DOE Building Technology Program in fiscal year 2000. Included in this request is funding for programs such as Building America, Rebuild America, enhanced appliance standards, and research and development for more efficient building equipment and appliances. Key technologies in the DOE program include low-power sulfur lamps, advanced heat pumps, chillers and commercial refrigeration, fuel cells, insulation, building materials, and advanced windows.

It is difficult to assess the impact that increased funding for research and development might have on future energy consumption. Predicting winners and losers in technological development is far from a science (for example, predicting the outcome of Beta versus VHS for videotape recording). Solar photovoltaics, for example, have had extreme cost declines over the past decades, but their market share remains small. Accordingly, no attempt will be made here to estimate energy savings from a dollar amount spent on technology-related research and development. Successful research and development can, however, play a major role in improving the economics of most of the other programs included in the CCTI proposal. If major short-term progress is made in developing price-competitive energy-efficient alternatives to today's technologies, then all the CCTI programs stand to benefit with increased

#Information on FEMP is available at web site www.eren.doe.gov/femp/.

market penetration. For example, price-competitive superinsulating windows can go a long way toward achieving the goal of reducing energy consumption by 50 percent in new housing, providing an economical way to qualify for the tax credits described in Chapter 2.

Industry

Background

DOE supports a wide variety of research, development, and deployment programs and has recently reported that its programs have reduced current energy consumption by 115 trillion Btu.69 Other benefits from the programs are reduced emissions and improved Industrial productivity. DOE's CCTI program for industry would expand efforts to develop innovative technologies and production methods, with specific emphasis on the Industries of the Future program and combined heat and power (CHP) programs. The proposed budget is $172 million, an increase of $15 million over 1999.

One indication of the possible impacts of these programs is provided by the AEO99 projections. A frozen technology case for the industrial sector projects 630 trillion Btu (2 percent) more delivered energy consumption in 2010 than in the reference case,70 and a portion of the difference is due to inclusion of the energy effects of the DOE programs.

This analysis does not attempt to quantify the energy or emissions impacts of DOE research, development, and deployment programs; however, the AEO99 reference case projections embody trends in energy efficiency improvements resulting, in part, from past and ongoing programs. In most cases it is difficult to aistinguish the efficiency improvement effects of the industry programs from those resulting from economic forces and autonomous technological progress, not necessarily because the effects are inconsequential but rather because the industrial sector is a dynamic, Internationally competitive arena where increased productivity is essential to corporate survival. In this setting, some portion of the technological progress concurrent with public policy initiatives would have occurred in their absence. The aggregate impacts of government programs are included in the reference case, however, as appropriate. For example, EIA has previously assumed that the programs included in the Climate Change Action Program could reduce annual electricity consumption by 41 billion kilowatthours and annual fossil fuel consumption by 90 trillion Btu in 2010.

Industries of the Future

The Industries of the Future program works with the most energy-intensive industries to develop technologies to increase efficiency, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and improve industrial competitiveness." The Industries currently included in the program are aluminum, steel, metal casting, glass, mining, agriculture, chemicals, forest products, and petroleum. Industries of the Future includes specific programs that fund collaborative research and development, as well as the development of industry vision statements for future technology trends. The programs are targeted to a number of industries. The aluminum industry is developing an advanced aluminum reduction cell

U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Industrial Technologies, Summary of Program Results, DOE/EE-0184 (Washington, DC, January 1999), p. 9.

"Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1999, DOE/EIA-0383(99) (Washington, DC. December 1998). Table F3. "For a more detailed description of the Industries of the Future program, see U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Industrial Technologies, Summary of Program Results, DOE/EE-0184 (Washington, DC, January 1999). p. 9.