ARRESTS By Treatment Module Within each module, clients who completed treatment had significantly lower arrest rates than clients in the comparison group.12 FIGURE 1 Arrests per 100 clients in the three years subsequent to treatment For those that successfully completed outpatient treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent arrest is 43 per hundred clients, a rate 35% lower than the subsequent arrest rate (66 per hundred) of a matched group of clients with untreated alcohol and drug problems. For those that successfully completed residential treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent arrest is 59 per hundred clients, a rate 38% lower than the subsequent arrest rate (95 per hundred) of a matched group of clients with untreated alcohol and drug problems. For untreated residential clients one can expect an average of about one arrest per person over a three year period. For those that successfully completed methadone treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent arrest is 68 per hundred clients, a rate 21% lower 12 This analysis (and subsequent ones in this section) differs from that of Table 1 in that it compares the mean number of arrests between the groups and within each module. Tests for statistical significance were based on ANOVA F-ratios. Any differences in prior arrests or convictions between the groups within modules were controlled for in the ANOVA model. Effect of treatment completion vs. non-completion on subsequent arrests: F-6.13, p=.01. than the subsequent arrest rate (86 per hundred) of a matched group of those with untreated alcohol and drug problems. Since it can be estimated that in Oregon there are twelve unreported crimes for every arrest, 13 the following may be suggested: For outpatient treatment clients, completion of treatment in 1991 was associated with 276 fewer crimes per hundred drug and alcohol clients or about 17,319 fewer crimes over the subsequent three year period.14 For residential treatment clients, completion of treatment in 1991 was associated with 432 fewer crimes per hundred drug and alcohol clients or about 11,452 fewer crimes over the subsequent three year period. For methadone treatment clients, completion of treatment in 1991 was associated with 216 fewer crimes per hundred drug and alcohol clients or about 318 fewer crimes over the subsequent three year period. In summary, it may be concluded that the completion of treatment by the FY 1991-1992 clients resulted in an estimated 29,089 fewer crimes over a three year period.15 In addition, there continued to be treatment completion cohorts (i.e., 1992-1993, 1994-1995) who would have contributed further to the numbers of avoided crimes during that three year period. 13 The Bureau of Justice Assistance reported in 1991 that only 38% of all crimes are reported to police (National Crime Victimization Survey Report, 1991, p. 102). According to the BJA Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 1991 (p. 462), only 21.6% of offenses reported to police result in an arrest. This means that only about 8% of crimes result in arrest or about one in twelve. Of course, that rate varies by type of crime, with some crimes (e.g., murder) having a higher percentage of arrest and others (e.g., rape) having an even lower percentage of arrest. 14The total number of avoided crimes was calculated for each module by multiplying the number of avoided crimes per person by the total number of clients who completed treatment in that module in 1991. 15 This does not include traffic offenses (except DUII and motor vehicle theft) or other minor offenses. FEMALE CLIENTS The effect of treatment completion on the arrest rate of females is particularly dramatic for outpatient and residential clients. FIGURE 2 Arrests per 100 female clients in the three years subsequent to For those female clients that successfully completed outpatient treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent arrest is 27 per hundred clients, a rate 59% lower than the subsequent arrest rate (66 per hundred) of a matched group of clients with untreated alcohol and drug problems. For those that successfully completed residential treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent arrest is 23 per hundred clients, a rate 69% lower than the subsequent arrest rate (74 per hundred) of a matched group of clients with untreated alcohol and drug problems. For those that successfully completed methadone treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent arrest is 84 per hundred clients, a rate 20% lower than the subsequent arrest rate (105 per hundred) of a matched group of those with untreated alcohol and drug problems. 16 Effect of treatment completion vs. non-completion on subsequent arrests: F-3.3, p=.06.. CONVICTIONS By Treatment Module There is also a significantly lower conviction rate for those who completed treatment. FIGURE 3 Convictions per 100 clients in the three years subsequent to treatment By treatment modality17 For those that successfully completed outpatient treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent conviction is 16 per hundred clients, a rate 45% lower than the subsequent arrest rate (29 per hundred) of a matched group of clients with untreated alcohol and drug problems. For those that successfully completed residential treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent conviction is 28 per hundred clients, a rate 36% lower than the subsequent conviction rate (44 per hundred) of a matched group of clients with untreated alcohol and drug problems. For those that successfully completed methadone treatment (discharged in 1991-1992) the rate of subsequent conviction is 22 per hundred clients, a rate 31% lower than the subsequent conviction rate (32 per hundred) of a matched group of those with untreated alcohol and drug problems. 17 Effect of treatment completion vs. non-completion on subsequent convictions: F=5.2, p=.02. INCARCERATION The following represents only those clients incarcerated in the state prison system in the three year period subsequent to treatment. While Department of Corrections data on state prison incarceration were available to us, data on local jail time for specific clients (actual time served) are difficult to acquire and are not included. This, therefore, is a conservative estimate of the reduction of incarceration time for those who completed treatment since it does not include local jail time. Because the data previously presented show reduced arrests and convictions for treatment completers compared to non-completers, we would anticipate that those who completed treatment would also have reduced local jail time. FIGURE 4 Incarceration episodes per 100 clients in the three years subsequent to treatment18 Treatment completion is associated with substantially fewer incarcerations in the state prison system and fewer days incarcerated. For those that successfully completed outpatient treatment (discharged in 1991-1992), the rate of subsequent incarceration episodes is 6 per hundred clients, a rate 50% lower than the subsequent incarceration rate (12 per hundred) of a matched group of clients with untreated alcohol and drug problems. For those that successfully completed residential treatment (discharged in 18Effect of treatment completion vs. non-completion on subsequent incarcerations: F=8.7, p=.003. |