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Current Population Reports

Population Characteristics

Series P-20, No. 379

Issued May 1983

The average number of lifetime births expected by women 18 to 24 years old in 1982 was 1,994 per 1,000 women. This rate has remained stable since 1976 when the figure was 2,030 lifetime births per 1,000 women. If these women realize their expectations, their completed fertility will be below the level needed for the natural replacement of their generation (2.1 births per woman). Statistics on the actual and expected childbearing experience of American women presented in this advance report are based on data collected in the June 1982 Current Population Survey (CPS).

A longer perspective on the decline in anticipated fertility is provided by a time series showing birth expectations of currently married women 18 to 24 years old. The lifetime birth expectations for this group of women decreased sharply from an average of 2.9 per married woman in 1967 to 2.4 in 1971. A more moderate decline has since occurred, reaching an average of 2.1 births per woman in 1982. Single women 18 to 24 years old in 1982 expected to have about 1.9 births per woman at the end of their childbearing years.

Expected lifetime fertility in June 1982 for all women 18 to 34 years old by selected socioeconomic characteristics is shown in table 1. Women who were not high school graduates at the time of the survey reported a higher average number of expected lifetime births (2.3 births) than did women with 4 or more years of college (1.8 births). Among these college-educated women, birth expectations were higher for those who completed exactly 4 years of college (1.9 births) than for those who had 5 or more years of co lege (1.7 births). In addition, 19 percent of these highly educated women expected not to have any children. Of all women 18 to 34 years old, 12 percent expected to be chudless. The percentage of lifetime fertility already comDieted (obtained from table 1 by dividing the column of births to date by the column of lifetime births expected) is a measure of a woman's progress in fulfilling her stated family size expectations. For example, table 1 shows that non-high school graduates, along with higher expectations, also have arready borne a higher proportion of their expected lifetime fertility (73 percent) than women who completed 4 or more years of college (35 percent).

National fertility rates for 1982 estimated from the June 1982 CPS are shown in table 2. The national fertility rate is defined as the number of women who had a birth during the 12-month period preceding the survey per 1,000 women 18 to 44 years old in June 1982. The rate in 1982 was 70.5 births per 1,000 women which was not significantly different from 71.1 per 1,000 women in 1980. Of the estimated 3,433,000 women 18 to 44 years old who had borne a child in the year preceding the June 1982 survey,' 37 percent (1,263,000 women) had a first birth, resulting in a first birth rate of 25.9 per 1,000 women.

Table A reveals that while the overall level of fertility did not change significantly between 1980 and 1982, there was some evidence of a decline in the fertility rate for women 18 to 24 years old from 96.6 to 88.3 per 1,000 during this period. This apparent decline was offset by an increase in the

fertility rate for women 30 to 34 years old from 60.0 to 73.5 per 1,000. The increase in the fertility rate of women in their early thirties that began in the mid-1970's has apparently continued into the 1980's, reflecting a change toward later childbearing.2

The figure presents a profile of women who had a child in the last year by selected characteristics for women under 30 years old and those 30 years old and over. Among 30-to-44year-olds who had recently given birth, 51 percent had completed 1 or more years of college, 41 percent were employed, and 31 percent of those employed were in professional occupations. Additionally, nearly 43 percent of women with a recent birth were in families with annual incomes of $25,000 and above.

A very different profile emerges among women under age 30 who had a birth in the year preceding the survey. Compared with women 30 to 44 years old, only 26 percent had completed 1 or more years of college, 34 percent were employed, and 14 percent of those employed were in a professional occupation. Only 21 percent lived in families with an annual income exceeding $25,000. In addition, 16 percent of the births to women 18 to 29 years old were to single women, compared with only 3 percent for women 30 years and over. This suggests that children born to women 30

2 See National Center for Health Statistics, "Advanc Final Natality Statistics, 1980," Monthly Vital St

years and older may experience a significantly different home environment than children born to younger women.

Among all women 18 to 44 years old in 1982 who had a child in the preceding year, 36 percent were employed as of June 1982, representing a slight increase since 1980 (32 percent). There is also evidence of an increase between 1980 and 1982 in the fertility rate among employed women (41.9 in 1982 versus 37.4 in 1980). Not unexpectedly, the fertility rate for women not in the labor force in both 1982 (124.7 per 1,000) and in 1980 (130.1 per 1,000) was still several times higher than that of employed women. This high

fertility rate among women not in the labor force reflects, in part, the recent childbearing of women who have temporarily dropped out of the labor force to have a child.

Regional variations in fertility are shown in table B which presents data on the percent childless and births in the last year per 1,000 women 18 to 44 years old. A high fertility rate in 1982 was found among women residing in the Mountain Division (90.7 per 1,000) which is 29 percent above the national rate (70.5 per 1,000), while lower rates are found in the New England (61.6 per 1,000) and Middle Atlantic (60.6 per 1,000) Divisions. Additionally, a much higher

proportion of women in New England are childless (43 percent), than in the Mountain Division (36 percent).

Reliability of estimated statistics. The statistics presented in this report are based on sample data from the June 1982 Current Population Survey. The estimates are subject to variability because of sampling error as well as other sources of error. Additional information on fertility and birth expectations, as well as detailed statements on sampling variability and limitations of the data, will appear in a subsequent detailed report on the June 1982 fertility survey.