South Africa: The Struggle for a New Order

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Brookings Institution Press, Dec 1, 2010 - Political Science - 262 pages
The unbanning of the African National Congress and the release of Nelson Mandela in February of 1990 cleared the way for negotiations toward a new, post-apartheid political order in South Africa. But three years later, the main parties have made little progress toward a compromise, while violence escalates in the townships. In this revealing study, Marina Ottaway examines the new conflicts emerging in South Africa, the factors influencing them, and the probable outcome. She shows that the black-on-white conflict that has made the country a pariah in the past has evolved into a much more complex state of affairs and explains that the transition is likely to take an unprecedented form. Beginning with a brief history of the events since Mandela's release, Ottaway provides a vivid account of the evolving conflict over apartheid. She discuses the complexity of conflict resolution in a country where internal and external currents work against each other, and where the struggle for power transcends any strides toward peace. Ottaway thoroughly addresses the issues involved in South Africa's transition from apartheid. She explains that the abolition of the pervasive system has more far-reaching implications than originally thought. South Africa explores the effects that the international climate of the 1990s has had on the county’s transition. Ottaway contends that the international community rejects apartheid but is unsympathetic to black demands for redistribution, and has condemned the white government’s vision of separate development but accepts ethnic nationalism as inevitable. She describes the dramatic effects the new world order has had on South Africa and assesses what those changes will mean to the country’s difficult transition.

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Contents

The Changing Conflict
1
The First Two Years
2
Conflict Resolution and Conflict Generation
9
Negotiating in the Absence of Crisis
12
Models of Transition
14
The Study
17
The Actors
21
The Government Establishment
23
The National Party and Local Government in the 1990s
117
State Power and Peoples Power
121
Negotiating the Postapartheid City
125
Conclusions
130
The Economic Arena
132
The South African Economy
133
The Future of the Economy
134
The Congress of South African Trade Unions
135

The Reformers at the Top
24
The National Party
29
The Bureaucracy
30
The Security Apparatus
32
The Afrikaner Broederhood and the Churches
36
Conclusions
40
The Liberation Establishment
42
The African National Congress
43
The Mass Democratic Movement
55
The Antiapartheid Churches
58
Conclusions
61
The Second Tier
63
The Rejectionist Parties
76
The De Jure Participants
81
Conclusions
83
The Arenas of Struggle
85
Toward a New Constitution
89
The Constitutional Models
90
The Politics of Constitution
104
Conclusions
112
The Local Arena
114
Local Government in South Africa
115
The African National Congress
140
The Government and Economic Reform
143
The Business Community
147
The Transition
153
The Failure of CODES A
157
The Assets
159
The Strategy
163
The Climate Surrounding Negotiations
173
Conclusions
175
Beyond Constitutional Negotiations
179
Integrating Groups Excluded from Negotiations
180
Converting Political Organizations into Parties
190
Tackling Noninstitutional Issues
192
Conclusions
195
Liberation and Reformism
198
The Second Phase
200
The International Context
205
Direct Foreign Influences
209
A Different Transition
212
Notes
215
Index
241
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