TOBACCO MANUF(21) -48 -77 -2,692 4,863 -2.781 -5,159 -2,879 -5,422 -2,837 -5,437 -2,785 5515 -76 -85 -44 -982 -535 -1,041 -550 -1,348 -768 -1,428 -793 -1,497 -780 -1,493 -763 -1,510 -4,259 -2,672 4,686 -2,883 -5,100 -3,103 -5,287 -3,172 -5,478 -1,920 -3,334 -2,010 -3,579 -2,106 -3,831 -2,211 -4,058 -2,211 -4,094 -2,195 4,169 -24,734 41,753 -27,052 46,942 -29,273 -52,197 -31,646 -57,387 -32,229 60,581 -33,213 63.503 -14,593 -25,221 -15,888 -26,964 -17,156 -28,595 -18,449 -30,152 -18,952 -30,923 -19,435 -31,578 -2,067 -3,591 -2,171 -3,889 -2,288 4,207 -2,418 4,503 -2,438 4586 43 -83 42 -83 -24,828 -42,519 -29,938 44,472 -29,021 46,080 -31,143 47,584 -31,942 48,055 -32,682 -48,439 -4,937 -9,406 -4,592 -9,282 -4,520 -9,391 -4,500 -9,316 4,301 -8,247 -3,819 -7,663 -9,947 -5,757 8,286 4,978 6,902 -80 -11,082 -20,081 -11,299 -21,043 -11,563 -22,011| -11,864 -22,765 -11,507 -22,239 -11,022 -22,087 -676 -1,187 -710 -1,273 -746 -1,362 -784 -1,441 -784 -1,454 -779 -1,483 -1,766 -3,090 -1,839 -3,294 -1,912 -3,498 -1,991 -3,674 -1,972 -3,678 -1.938 -3,725 -4,083 -7,167 -4,294 -7,707 4.507 -8,255 4,733 -8,750 4,731 -8,848 4,699 -9,042 -4,558 -8,636 -4,456 -8,769 4,398 -8,897 4,356 -8,900 -4,020 -8,258 -3,606 -7,837 -23,838 41,507 -24,449 43,655 -25,317 -46,036 -26,251 47,943 -25,974 47,147| -25,359 47,205 -2,422 4,233 -2,513 4,513 -2,603 4,791 -2,701 -5,035 -2,671 -5,043 -2,627 -5,113 -8,985 -15,763 -9,177 -16,533 -9,441 -17,372 -9,722 -18,009 -9,499 -17,598 -9,189 -17,629 -12,431 -21,511 12,759 -22,609 -13,274 -23,874 -13,828 -24,898 -13,804 -24,506 -13,543 -24,463 -19,912 -34,912 -20,727 -37,277 -21,631 -39,726 -22,618 41,894| -22,523 41,982 -22,230 42,586|| -254 453 -261 -480 -270 -509 -281 -533 -279 -528 -272 -533 -155,217 -270,268 -162,051 -286,079 -170,000 -302,464 -178,600 -316,793 -179,034 -316,200 -177,752 -318,459 Mid-Atlantic 4,572 -7,997 -11,971 NJ NY PA East North Central IL IN MI OH -1,622 -2,212 WI -710 West North Central -2,158 -6,333 -9,838 -15,096 -12,086 -17,906 -14,397 -21,233 -1,121 -1,571 -2,025 -3,053 -2,599 -3,999 -3,277 4,891 -3,985 -5,939 4,747 -7,127 -4,956 -8,056 -1,883 -2,624 -3,305 4,965 -3,991 6,153 4,855 -7,180 -5,737 -8,414 -6.658 -9,889 -6,720 -10,934 -1,568 -2,138 -2,667 -3,954 -3,247 4,944 -3,953 -5,835 4,674 -6,881 -5,443 -8,118 -5,579 -9,060 -6,268 -8,562 -10,684 -15,857 -12,841 -19,589 -15,509 -22,842 -18,234 -26,701 -21,125 -31,372 -21,528 -34,859 -1,750 -2,399 -3,011 4,482 -3,688 -5,630 4,507 -6,666 -5,351 -7,887 -6,252 -9.333 -6,420 -10,429 -930 -1,263 -1.573 -2,325 -1,891 -2,875 -2,283 -3,356 -2,682 -3,923 -3,106 4,609 -3,175 -5,129 -1,256 -1,719 -2,141 -3,181 -2,534 -3,875 -3,032 4.455 -3.535 -5,150 -4,067 -6,016 -4,106 -6,641 -2,761 -4,092 -3,326 -5,068 -4,023 -5,924 -4,734 -6.937 -5,491 -8,158 -1,665 -2,441 -1,931 -2,803 -2.207 -3,256 -9,618 -7,574 -11,309 -1,286 -277 4,297 -3.354 4,924 -3,899 -5,679 4,475 -2,699 -2,135 -3,146 -2,508 -3,672 -2,902 4,308 -2,938 4,765 -1,712 -1,348 -1,983 -1,578 -2,308 -1,824 -2,705 -1,837 -2,987 -3,061 -2,418 -3,572 -2,845 4,176 -3,297 -4,902 -3,359 -5,446 -1,852 -1,500 -2,233 -1,801 -2,674 -2,125 -3,187 -2.216 -3,596 -2,516 -1,995 -2,945 -2,351 -3,452 -2.727 -4,060 -2,775 4,509 -958 -803 -1,202 -984 -1,480 -1,179 -1,788 -1,256 -2,049 -6,926 -5,572 -8,258 -6,639 -9,818 -7,784 -11,648 -8,039 -13,067 -1,713 -1,369 -2,020 -1,618 -2,380 -1,884 -2,807 -1,931 -3,133 -1,768 -1,437 -2,135 -1,724 -2.562 -2,032 -3,054 -2,115 -3,446 -1,001 -1.191 -957 -1,416 -1,121 -1,681 -1.154 -1,883 -1,023 -1,291 -1,928 -1.597 -2,443 -1.964 -2,912 -2.342 -3,461 -2,747 4,105 -2,839 4,605 -8.942 -11,857 -18,013 -16,410 -25,203 -21,352 -32,317 -26,466 40,291 31,934 48,720-34,131 -55,868 -566 -733 -1,107 -960 -1,475 -1.209 -1,815 -1,459 -2,195 -1,717 -2,598 -1.792 -2,933 -1,629 -2,188 -3,331 -3,115 4,783 -4,118 -6,254 -5,166 -7,906 -6.302 -9,650 -6,808 -11,144 -973 -1,290 -1,959 -1,783 -2,738 -2,317 -3,506 -2,867 4.365 -3.453 -5,269 -3,691 -6,041 -5,774 -7,646 -11,615 -10.552 -16,208 -13,709 -20,742 -16,974 -25,824 -20,461 -31,203 -21,840 -35,751 -3,160 -4,081 -6,163 -5,339 -8,207 -6,754 -10,145 -8,205 -12,350 -9,718 -14,739 -10,187 -16,706 -936 -1,217 -1,843 -1,608 -2,037 -3,067 -2,473 -3,729 -2,926 4,435 -3,063 -5,016 -1,093 -1,619 -1,287 -1,897 -354 -310 -244 -356 412 -484 -274 -792 449 -6,620 4,463 -7,257 -1,484 -2,221 -1.503 -2,467 -441 -525 413 -621 426 -696 MT -88 -122 -5,577 -7,857 -10,115 -15,292 -13,033 -20,064 -16,303 -24,442 -19,596 -29,381 -22,995 -34,725 -23,820 -39,016 -1.127 -306 465 -367 -911 -711 -561 -390 -1.856 644 -1,211 65,002 -97,537-82,095 -125,879| -101,992 -151,992 -122,352 -182,121 -143,846 -216,132 -149,000-242,918 Mid-Atlantic -31,189 -18,509 34,021 -19,323 -37,120 NJ NY PA East North Central IL IN MI OH WI West North Central IA KS MN -17,856 -539 -569 -1,078 -602 -1,168 492 -277 -282 -570 -287 -604 -278 -595 -264 -8,016 -4,628 -8,700 4,772 -9,462 4,942 -10,108 -4,872 -10,076 4,727 -10,274 -5,286 -3.120 -5,758 -3,241 -6,271 -3,382 -6,7:3 -3,362 6,754 -3,300 -6,902 -1,885 -3.310 -1,938 -3,608 -2,012 -3,936 -2,096 4,220 -2,078 4,236 -2,035 -3.477 -6,062 -3,600 -6,622 -3.756 -7,225 -3,937 -7,764 -3,931 -7,838 -2,332 4,031 -2.455 -4,445 -2.593 4,883 -2,745 -5,287 -2,757 -5,406 -2,868 -5,015 -2,969 -5,481 -3,091 -5,980 -3,235 -6,426 -3,221 -6,483 -1,345 -2,315 -1,436 -2,576 -1,530 -2,850 -1.630 -3,106 -1,654 -3,219 -8,411 -14,620 -8,801 -16,073 -9,252 -17,636 -9,752 -19,048 -2,009 -3,495 -2,092 -3,831 -2,191 4,195 -2,303 4,520 -2,288 4,707 -2,225 -3,867 -2,340 4,266 -2,467 -4,692 -2,608 -5,082 -2,628 -5,203 -2,628 -5,362 -1,206 -2,107 -1,259 -2.315 -1,323 -2,540 -1,392 -2,742 -2,971 -5,150 -3,109 -5,661 -3,271 -3,450 -6,704 -36,488 -62,860 -38,843 -64,000 41,284 64,633 -43,822 -65,193 -1,879 -3,264 -1,965 -3,309 -2,062 -3.339 -2.166 -3,366 -7.341 -12,595 -7,873 -12,882 -8,413 -13,053 -8,970 -13,212 -3,944 -6,797 4,197 -6,872 4,460 -6,883 -4,731 -6,886 4,793 -6,745 4,834 6.631 -23,323 40,203 -24,808 -40,938 -26,349 41,357 -27,955 41,728 -28,276 41,156 -28,510 40,711 -10,719 -18,690 -11,256 -19,432 -11,853 -20,150 -12,474 -20,760 -12,535 -20.573 -12,492 -20,476 -3,218 -5.593 -3.374 -5,628 -3,547 -5,630 -3,728 -5,623 -3,738 -5,462 -3,723 -5,340 -1.536 -2,735 -1,572 -2,961 -1.626 -3,217 -1,682 -3,429 -1,664 -3,422 -1,615 -3,433 -443 -777 -459 -850 481 -928 -504 -998 -504 -1,008 -496 -1,024 -792 -454 -871 -478 -941 -482 -962 -480 -984 -2,727 -1,753 -2,726 -1,855 -2,722 -1,872 -2,657 -2,606 -2,110 -3,444 -2,243 -937 -1,730 -983 -667 -1,165 -1,300 -766 -1,640 -24,802 -43,351 -25,797 44,081 -26,965 44,696 44,052 -27,827 43,264 -21,989 -38,365 -22,923 -38,687 -23,992 -38,840 -25,136 -38,930 -25,086 -37,836 -24,866 -37,028 -980 -1,739 -998 -1,875 -1,030 -2,031 -1,065 -2,159 -1,051 -2,144 -1,017 -2,145 -1,832 -3,247 -1,876 -3,519 -1.943 -3,825 -2,015 -4,080 -1,997 4,072 -1,943 4,091 -1,184 -2,072 -1,241 -2,153 -1,304 -2,229 -1,369 -2,297 -1,372 -2,278 -1,365 -2,267 414 -727 -440 -467 -889 -494 -966 -500 -995 -503 -1,023 -770 -1,345 -801 -1,348 -837 -1,341 -876 -1,332 -872 -1,283 -863 -1,245 -606 -1,198 -607 -1,237 -604 4.333 -3,881 8.031 -2,761 -5,580 -3,174 -6,643 -1,673 -3,338 -9,796 -19,404 -9,758 -19,963| -2,308 4,585 -1,398 -2,790 -1.391 -2,867 -3,462 -6,827 -3,451 -7,027 44,356 64,312 44,756 63,622 -2,168 -3,296 -2,157 -3,245 -9,120 -13,115 -9.255 -13,034 -28,215 -833 -45,169 -28,134 -1,879 -3,442 -2,381 -3,435 -2,412 -3,358 -2,434 -1,893 -1,029 -2,036 -1,031 -2,062 -1,019 -1,443 -818 -1,576 -3,296 -2,096 -844 -1,697 Grand Total -155,668 -271,042|-162,563 -286,991|-170,574 -303,525 -179,237 -318,001 -179,712 -317,515 -178,471 -319,877 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY This study has used the modeling system developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) to estimate the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on individual regions and industrial sectors on the U.S. The version of the modeling system used in this study represents the U.S. economy as 53 economic sectors, including 49 industrial sectors and four government sectors, and four geographic areas. The areas have been formed by combining contiguous Federal census regions into four groups, based on similarity in the shares of specific fossil fuels that are used in electricity generation within the regions. The economic projections developed for the four areas are then disaggregated to produce impact estimates for the ten census regions and individual states. To use the model in analyzing the potential impacts of the commitments offered by the U.S. in the Protocol, input data have been developed describing four types of direct consequences of the commitments. Those consequences are the changes in energy prices, household expenditures, industry behavior, and federal revenue patterns that are expected to result from the commitments. First, increases in the prices of the various types of fuels have been estimated on the basis of the two series of prices for emission permits that have been used in the analysis. The two sets of permit prices are based on different assumptions about such unknowns as the rate at which improved technology will increase energy efficiency, and the price elasticities of demand for specific types of energy. The energy price estimates also take into account differences among the fuel prices paid by industrial, commercial and residential energy users, and interregional differences in the composition of fuel types used in electricity generation. Second, the increases in residential energy prices will cause increases in household expenditures for gasoline, electricity, and heating oil. Their aggregate disposable income, however, will not change. Expenditures on all other consumption categories have therefore been adjusted downward by an amount equivalent to the increases in energy-related expenditures. Third, changes in the behavior of six energy-intensive industries have been projected on the basis of results from a study conducted by the Argonne National Laboratory. Parameters in the REMI model describing regional purchasing patterns have been suitably adjusted to represent changes in importation suggested by this study. Finally, the federal government will obtain large increases in revenues from the auctioning of emission permits. To preserve the size of the total government budget, the real disposable income of consumers has been increased by an amount equivalent to the projected corporate expenditures on emission permits. Such an adjustment could be implemented in practice by increasing the standard deduction in the personal income tax. |