This article presents projections of personal income, employment, and population, by States, for 1980 and 1990. These projections, as with all efforts to look into the economic future, are based upon an extension of past relationships. The methodology used for these projections has four characteristics which distinguish the results from those of a simple linear extension of trends at a summary level.

First, the basic projections were made for 173 economic areas into which BEA has divided the country, using criteria that make the areas especially suitable for economic projection and analysis. The projections for areas that cross State lines were disaggregated into the State segments required for reaggregation to State totals.

Second, the economic area projections were made within the framework of projections of the overall U.S. economy. Projections of population, employment, and income were made first for the Nation, then disaggregated geographically.

Third, the projections are based on the assumption that people migrate to areas of economic opportunity and away from declining areas. Accordingly, projections of area income and employment were prepared first, and projections of area income and employment were prepared first, and projections of area population derived from them.

Fourth, projections of income and employment were prepared for each of as many as 39 industries in each of the 173 areas. Various methods were used to make the projections, depending upon the individual industry's role in the area's economy. However, the methods used insure that in each of the 173 areas the industrial composition of projected income and employment constitutes an economy with an internally balanced structure. The fact that the projections were prepared in industrial detail makes it possible for the projected economic path of an area to depart substantially from past trends.

Nature of the projections

These projections are intended to be a best estimate of what can be expected if there are no policy or program changes of unusual nature or magnitude, such as the establishment of a large number of "new towns". The projections are neither a goal for nor a limit upon any given region's future economic activity. They carry no connotation of desirability or undesirability.

Projections of this type can be useful in the assessment of future public and private demands for goods and services. These include, for instance, demands for physical capital related to energy and water resources development and pollution abatement, as well as needs for teachers, policemen, doctors, and workers in other public and private service capabilities.

The projections also permit developing problems such as excessively slow growth or low per capita incomes to be foreseen, so that corrective policies can be adopted.

Furthermore, the projections can provide a framework for program evaluation purposes. If a remedial or developmental program is considered for an area, the projected economic activity in the area can be modified to reflect the expected effects of that program. Comparison of the modified projections with the baseline projections provides a quantitative measure of the effects of the program, positive or negative, in each region affected.

The first part of this article summarizes past and projected changes in State income, employment, and population. Following that, there is a description of the concepts and methods used in making the projections.

CHANGES IN TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME

Personal income in the Nation (expressed in 1967 dollars) is projected to increase from $690 billion in 1969 to $1,663 billion in 1990, a rise of 141 percent. State percentage increases range from a low of 93 percent in South Dakota to a high of 213 percent in Nevada, with the increase in 25 States falling within 10 percentage points of the national average.

The largest absolute increases are projected in California and New York. In New York, the large size of the increase-$94 billion-is mainly a function of the present size of that State's economy, for the projected percentage increase is only 125 percent, compared to 141 percent nationally. California's projected increase of $123 billion reflects not only the large present size of the California economy but also a projected growth of 159 percent-fifth largest in the Nation.

Other large gains, ranging from $46 billion to $56 billion, are projected in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and Texas. The size of these gains is

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mainly a reflection of the size of the economies of these States. At the other end of the scale are increases ranging from $1 billion to $2 billion in Vermont, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. The smallness of these advances mainly reflects the smallness of the States' economies, although there is also the factor that projected growth rates are below average except in Vermont. From 1929 to 1969, there was a pronounced shift in the distribution of personal income from the northern and central areas of the country to the south and west. In 1929, the residents of the New England, Mideast, Great Lakes, and Plains regions together received 73 percent of the Nation's total income; in 1969, their share was 59 percent. The Southeast, Southwest, Rocky Mountain, and Far West regions received 27 percent in 1929 and 41 percent in 1969.

The summary data in table 1 show that the shift was milder in the 195069 span than in 1929–50, and that a further moderatiton is projected for 1969-90.

Table 1.-Regional Shares of Personal Income and of Population

1. Alaska and Hawaii included in southern and western total.

2. Percent changes calculated from data carried to one more decimal than shown.

3. Alaska and Hawaii are excluded from 1929 data. To achieve comparability, they were excluded from 1950 data in calculating percent change for 1929-50 period.