TABLE 2.—Estimates of total1 enrollment in institutions of higher education, Pennsylvania, 1951-70

1 Full-time, part-time, undergraduate, and graduate.

2 Morneweck projection extended from 1968 to 1970 by the Advisory Panel.

Sources: R. B. Thompson, "The Problem of Rising College Enrollments," "The College Blue Book New York, 1957"; "The Enrollment Picture for the Decade Ahead," "Research Studies and Reports Series No. 3," Dr. Carl B. Morneweck, Director of Research, Department of Public Instruction, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, March 1958.

TABLE 3.—Estimates of full-time enrollment in institutions of higher education, Pennsylvania 1951-70

1 Morneweck projection extended from 1968 to 1970 by the advisory panel.

NOTE. In 1959-60, there were 136,000 full-time students in the Commonwealth's collegiate institutions. Sources: "Higher Education in the Commonwealth," report of the Governor's Commission on Higher Education, Harrisburg, 1957; "The Enrollment Picture for the Decade Ahead," Research Studies and Reports Series No. 3, Dr. Carl B. Morneweck, Director of Research, Department of Public Instruction, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, March 1958.

TABLE 4.-Two projections college age populations, southeastern Pennsylvania

"Higher Education and the Future of Youth in the Greater Philadelphia Area," p. xiii. Report of the Governor's Commission on Higher Education, app. 1.

TABLE 4-A.-1960 projections for 18-, 19-, 20-, and 21-year-olds

2 Report of the Governor's Commission on Higher Education, app. 1.

"Higher Education and the Future of Youth in the Greater Philadelphia Area," p. xiii.

Actual numbers of 18-, 19-, 20-year-olds only, decennial census as of Apr. 1, 1960.

4 1960 census for 18-, 19-, 20-year-olds with staff estimate of 21-year-olds.

TABLE 5.-An estimate of graduates from the public, parochial, and private schools in the city of Philadelphia, 1956–75

Source: Estimated from annual statistics of Philadelphia School District and the Diocesan School District.

The above table is reproduced from the report on "Higher Education and the Future of Youth in the Greater Philadelphia Area," p. xv, Nesbitt report.

Projection A for 1956 and 1960 can be compared with the actual number of high school graduates for those years.

1 Includes public and parochial students only. The amount of error is 0.07738. Using this quantification of the error and applying it to the remaining projections the following results:

TABLE 6.-Percent of public elementary school enrollees graduating from high school and estimated trend, Pennsylvania, 1937-70

Percent of public high school graduates entering college and estimated trend,

Source: "The Enrollment Picture for the Decade Ahead," research studies and reports, series No. 3, Dr. Carl B. Morneweck, director of research, Department of Public Instruction, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, March 1958.

TABLE 7-Data on high school graduates in southeastern Pennsylvania

Note that 4 surrounding counties with only of college age population supply approxi mately 50 percent of areas' high school graduates.

See table 4.

1 Approximate. 1970 projections of all collegiate institutions, southeastern Pennsylvania, 60,000 maximum. NOTE. Col. A indicates the number of daytime undergraduates attending these institutions in the academic year 1955-56.

Col. B indicates the current enrollment of full-time day undergraduates.

Col. C indicates the future capacity in 1970 as seen by the individual administrators of each institution. This column should be viewed with considerable caution. Some estimates are based on careful planning and on funds on hand. Others represent ambitious plans for substantial expansion and are contingent upon a variety of factors. Unforeseen contingencies could substantially alter the plans of any institution and these figures are not presented as absolute certainties.

1 The data for 1960-61 are not available for all schools in this survey. In some cases data for 1959-60 were used and in 2 cases the data were from the period 1958-59. This is important for it means that there is a built-in statistical lag in the data 1960-61 which also tends to reduce the amplitude of the trends. * Estimated.

Col. A is the actual number of students from Philadelphia County.

Col. B is the percent of the total enrollment at that institution made up of Philadelphia students.
Col. C is the actual number of students from Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties.
Col. D is the percent of the total enrollment of that institution from those 4 suburban counties.
Col. E is the actual number of students from the 5-county area.
Col. F is the percent of the total enrollment from southeastern Pennsylvania.

Data of this type were available for only 17 of the 24 schools. The absence of similar data for the other schools has the effect of reducing the amplitude of the trend that is obvious in the data.