Scientific Integrity and Public Trust: The Science Behind Federal Policies and Mandates : Case Study 2--climate Models and Projections of Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change : Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment of the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, One Hundred Fourth Congress, First Session, November 16, 1995, Volume 4U.S. Government Printing Office, 1996 - 1190 pages |
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Page 2
... predictions : A loss of one - third of the world's forests . A loss of one - third to one half of the mountain glacier ice . A dramatic increase of tropical diseases , such as malaria and yellow fever . And a dramatic rise in sea levels ...
... predictions : A loss of one - third of the world's forests . A loss of one - third to one half of the mountain glacier ice . A dramatic increase of tropical diseases , such as malaria and yellow fever . And a dramatic rise in sea levels ...
Page 7
... predict climate change , and second , the amount of federal expenditures for the modeling efforts . In general , we found that the models were better today than they were a decade ago at predicting climate change . Despite these im ...
... predict climate change , and second , the amount of federal expenditures for the modeling efforts . In general , we found that the models were better today than they were a decade ago at predicting climate change . Despite these im ...
Page 8
... predict fu- ture climate . The forum participants felt certain some of these predictions were more probable than others . For example , an increase in the global surface temperature from one to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2050 ...
... predict fu- ture climate . The forum participants felt certain some of these predictions were more probable than others . For example , an increase in the global surface temperature from one to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2050 ...
Page 9
... predictions.1 These sophisticated com- puter models consist of complex mathematical equations that represent various ... predict climatic change : at- mospheric , oceanic , and coupled . In general , atmospheric models predict the ...
... predictions.1 These sophisticated com- puter models consist of complex mathematical equations that represent various ... predict climatic change : at- mospheric , oceanic , and coupled . In general , atmospheric models predict the ...
Page 11
... predict . Scientists estimate that cold start error causes models to underestimate temperature changes , resulting in projections of av- erage annual temperatures that differ by as much as 0.7 degrees after 50 years . Months of ...
... predict . Scientists estimate that cold start error causes models to underestimate temperature changes , resulting in projections of av- erage annual temperatures that differ by as much as 0.7 degrees after 50 years . Months of ...
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adaptation aerosols AGBM agencies agriculture analysis anthropogenic areas atmosphere biomass carbon dioxide century climate models climate system CO₂ emissions coastal communications concentrations CONGRESS THE LIBRARY Convention costs Dana Rohrabacher decades developing countries economic ecosystems effects emission reduction energy efficiency environmental estimates expected factors forestry forests fossil fuel future gases Gigagrams Global Change Research global climate models global warming greenhouse effect greenhouse gas emissions impacts implementation improved increase industrial inventory IPCC IPCC Working Group issues land methane mitigation NIERENBERG ocean OECD options Panel Parties period policies and measures population potential predictions production projected radiative forcing range reduce regional response ROHRABACHER SBSTA scenarios Science scientific scientists sea level rise Second Assessment Report secretariat sector simulations sources studies Summary for Policymakers technical technologies temperature uncertainties understanding United USGCRP variability weather
Popular passages
Page 352 - Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Page 313 - Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will take fully into account the fact that economic and social development and eradication of poverty are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties.
Page 346 - the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate...
Page 347 - Nevertheless, the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.
Page 936 - The ultimate objective of the Convention is to achieve the 'stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate...
Page 936 - ... where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost.
Page 347 - Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors. These include the magnitude and patterns of...
Page 344 - Climate change' means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
Page 232 - Department of Defense Department of Energy Department of Health and Human Services...
Page 354 - CO, equilibrium conditions, a substantial fraction (a global average of one-third, varying by region from one-seventh to two-thirds) of the existing forested area of the world will undergo major changes in broad vegetation types — with the greatest changes occurring in high latitudes and the least in the tropics. Climate change is expected to occur at a rapid rate relative to the speed at which forest species grow, reproduce and re-establish themselves.