Summary for Policymakers The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Working Group II contribution to the Second Assessment Report is the product of 9 months of interactions between members of the Working Group II Bureau, Lead Authors from all chapters of the report, outside experts, and the Working Group II Technical Support Unit. Initial Draft and Reviews Following the expert review of the draft chapters of the assessment, the outline for the SPM was developed and approved by the Co-Chairs, the Bureau, and Lead Authors during the Lead Authors' Meeting held during 9-13 January 1995 in Geneva, Switzerland. A first draft of the SPM was completed on 23 January. The draft was circulated, reviewed, and revised twice before distribution to governments for review. Reviewers included the Working Group II Bureau, all Convening Lead Authors, a developing country Principal Lead Author from each chapter, the IPCC Chair and Secretary, and the Co-Chairs and Technical Support Units of IPCC Working Groups I and III. The SPM was circulated to governments, organizations, and external expert reviewers as part of the Government Review of the Working Group's draft contribution to the Second Assessment Report, from 6 March to 28 April 1995. This included mailings from the Technical Support Unit to 141 governments, 61 organizations, and 237 expert reviewers. Comments on chapters and/or the SPM were received from 295 governments, organizations, and expert reviewers. Final Draft and Approval of the SPM The comments on the SPM (and draft chapters) were reviewed at the Lead Authors Meeting held during 5-9 June in Charleston, South Carolina. At this time, Lead Authors recommended revisions to the SPM consistent with those they were making to their chapters. A new draft of the SPM was produced and distributed to Lead Authors at the meeting. Additional comments were submitted in writing by Lead Authors during June and early July. The draft underwent two further internal cycles of review and revision by the Working Group II Bureau, Convening Lead Authors, other Lead Authors who attended the Charleston meeting, the IPCC Chair and Secretary, and the Co-Chairs and Technical Support Units of IPCC Working Groups I and III. The final draft SPM was sent to governments and organizations for approval on 15 September 1995. Governments and organizations submitted written comments on the final draft prior to and at the IPCC Working Group II Plenary meeting in Montreal (October 16-20). These comments were distributed to all meeting participants. The draft SPM was discussed paragraph by paragraph and, after debate and modification, approved verbatim. Lead authors were present to discuss the scientific and technical aspects of the SPM and relevant assessment chapters. 23-558 96-4 Working Group II Second Assessment Report, Table of Contents Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Options Ecophysiological, Ecological, and Soil Processes in Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Climate Change Impacts On Forests Rangelands in a Changing Climate: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation Land Degradation and Desertification Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Regions Non-Tidal Wetlands The Cryosphere: Changes and Their Impacts Oceans Coastal Zones and Small Islands Hydrology and Freshwater Ecology Industry, Energy, and Transportation: Impacts and Adaptation Water Resources Management Wood Production under Changing Climate and Land Use Financial Services Human Population Health II. Assessment of Mitigation Options B. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. III. 26. 27. Energy Primer Energy Supply Mitigation Options Industry Mitigation Options in the Transportation Sector Mitigation Options for Human Settlements Agricultural Options for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Management of Forests for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Technical Appendices Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Annex III Summary for Policymakers: Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change A Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change The charge to Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was to review the state of knowledge concerning the impacts of climate change on physical and ecological systems, human health, and socioeconomic sectors. Working Group II also was charged with reviewing available information on the technical and economic feasibility of a range of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. This assessment provides scientific, technical, and economic information that can be used, inter alia, in evaluating whether the projected range of plausible impacts constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system," as referred to in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and in evaluating adaptation and mitigation options that could be used in progressing towards the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC (see Box 1). 2. Nature of the Issue Human activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases-which tend to warm the atmosphere and, in some regions, aerosols-which tend to cool the atmosphere. These changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols, taken together, are projected to lead to regional and global changes in climate and climate-related parameters such as temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and sea level. Based on the range Box 1. Ultimate Objective of the UNFCCC (Article 2) "...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner." of sensitivities of climate to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations reported by IPCC Working Group I and plausible ranges of emissions (IPCC IS92; see Table 1), climate models, taking into account greenhouse gases and aerosols, project an increase in global mean surface temperature of about 1-3.5°C by 2100, and an associated increase in sea level of about 15-95 cm. The reliability of regional-scale predictions is still low, and the degree to which climate variability may change is uncertain. However, potentially serious changes have been identified, including an increase in some regions in the incidence of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, with resultant consequences for fires, pest outbreaks, Projections of changes in temperature and sea level cited in this report are subject to final approval by IPCC Working Group I in late November 1995. Source: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Section A3, prepared by IPCC Working Group I [J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander, and S.K. Varney (eds.)] and WMO/UNEP. Cambridge University Press, |