implemented when they are designed to address other environmental concerns (e.g. air pollution, and soil erosion). These policies include: (i) voluntary programs and negotiated agreements with industry; (ii) utility demand-side management programs; (iii) tradable emissions permits; (iv) energy pricing strategies-for example, carbon or energy taxes, and reduced energy subsidies; (v) renewable energy incentives during market build-up; (vi) incentives such as provisions for accelerated depreciation and reduced costs for consumers; (vii) reducing or removing other subsidies, for example agricultural and transport subsidies, which increase greenhouse gas emissions; (viii) regulatory programs including minimum energy-efficiency standards, such as for appliances and fuel economy; (ix) stimulating research, development, and demonstration to make new technologies available. PART IV: Conclusion Policymakers are faced with responding to the risks posed by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the face of significant scientific uncertainties. They should note though, that uncertainties go in two directions, i.e., the models may be either over-estimating or underestimating the impact of human activities on the Earth's climate. In addition, policymakers should consider these uncertainties in the context of information indicating that climate-induced environmental changes cannot be reversed quickly, if at all, due to the long time scales (decades to millennia) associated with the climate system. Decisions taken during the next few years may limit the range of possible policy options in the future because high near-term emissions would require deeper reductions in the future to meet any given target concentration. Delaying action might reduce the overall costs of mitigation because of potential technological advances but could increase both the rate and the eventual magnitude of climate change, and hence the adaptation and damage costs. Policymakers will have to decide to what degree they want to take precautionary measures by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing the resilience of vulnerable systems by means of adaptation. Uncertainty does not mean that a nation or the world community cannot position itself better to cope with the broad range of possible climate changes or protect against potentially costly future outcomes. Delaying such measures may leave a nation or the world poorly prepared to deal with adverse changes and may increase the possibility of irreversible or very costly consequences. While human-induced climate change is a serious environmental issue, it is also clear that improved scientific knowledge and technological advances, coupled with strong policy measures, can allow society to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective manner. However, to achieve this goal will require that a priority be placed on research and development in a number of areas: (i) an improved understanding of how human activities change climate at the regional scale; (ii) an improved understanding of how human health, ecological and socio-economic systems respond to changes in climate; (iii) the development of cost-effective adaptation strategies; and (iv) the development of improved energy efficiency technologies and low greenhouse gas emission energy supply technologies. A coordinated effort to address the climate change issue by the scientific community, industry, business, environmental organizations and governments, all working towards the common goal of the cost-effective protection of human health and our vital economic and ecological systems, is within our grasp. Annex I Background Information on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its purpose is to assess scientific and technical information about climate change. Previous Reports In the 7 years since its inception, the IPCC has prepared a series of reports and methodologies, including: The 1990 comprehensive three-volume assessment of climate change, which evaluated anthropogenic alteration of the climate system, potential impacts, and available response measures (IPCC, 1990). This report became a standard reference, widely used by policymakers, scientists, and other experts. A supplementary review of literature related to climate change, impacts, and response measures prepared for the U.N. Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (IPCC, 1992). A special report on radiative forcing of climate and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, produced for the first meeting of the Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (IPCC, 1994a). The IPCC methodology for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation measures (IPCC, 1994b). The IPCC, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and International Energy Agency (IEA) methodology for conducting and reporting on national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 1995). These publications have established a common body of scientific information that has been used by governments in international negotiations and national decisionmaking. New Reports At the request of governments, the IPCC is currently preparing its Second Assessment Report (SAR), which will provide a comprehensive assessment of new and recent literature. To be completed at the end of 1995, the SAR will be published in three volumes, plus a special report. The common title for all of the volumes is Climate Change 1995: The IPCC Second Assessment Report. Titles of the separate volumes (to be contributed by Working Groups I through III) and the special report follow: Volume 1: The Science of Climate Change Volume 2: Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Volume 3: Economics and Social Dimensions The IPCC Synthesis Report: An Assessment of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Summaries for Policymakers. The scientific and technical chapters of the SAR will contain detailed reviews of critical issues such as detection of climate change; assessment of model results; effects of aerosols on radiative forcing; potential impacts for many ecological systems, human activities, and human infrastructure; technical evaluations of measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and analysis of the potential economic consequences and the applicability of such decisionmaking tools as cost-benefit analysis. Each volume of the SAR will include a "Summary for Policymakers" that extracts critical information from the underlying technical reports of interest to the policy community. In addition, the Special Report on Article 2 of the Convention will synthesize material contained in the three volumes of the full report that is particularly relevant to governments' interpretation of the UNFCCC objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Of specific concern are the relationships between emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, changes in concentrations and their effects on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and potential impacts of different levels of climate change on natural ecosystems, food security, and sustainable economic development. Structure and Process The IPCC operates at two overlapping but distinct levels as a formal intergovernmental body and as a scientific and technical assessment body. Government representatives meet in formal plenary sessions to approve the topics for assessment and the overall workplans for preparation of the reports. They also review and accept the detailed scientific and technical reports, as well as approve on a line-by-line basis the Summaries for Policymakers that highlight the policy implications of the detailed reports. Scientific and technical experts from each chapter writing team participate in the final approval process to maintain consistency between the Summary and the underlying chapters of the assessment. It is through this intergovernmental review and approval mechanism that the work of the IPCC is connected to international and national policy concerns. The detailed scientific and technical reports themselves are prepared through the enthusiasm and cooperation of scientists and technical experts from around the world. Hundreds of experts are involved in preparing the different chapters of the reports; literally thousands are involved in providing expert peer review. These experts come from many countries and are trained in disciplines ranging from atmospheric chemistry to economics. They include university professors, researchers working in private industry and at national laboratories, and scientific experts affiliated with nongovernmental organizations. The teams of experts that draft the individual sections of the reports are structured to include the broadest possible range of scientific opinion. IPCC reports are considered by virtually the entire scientific community to be balanced, unbiased assessments of the full range of scientific information on critical climate change issues. This is because the process of preparing the reports involves reviewing the most up-to-date scientific information, reconciling competing views where possible, and characterizing the disagreements when consensus is not achievable. IPCC reports have served another purpose as well: They have identified climate change issues that deserve the priority attention of the research community in the future. The IPCC is divided into three working groups. Working Group I analyzes the functioning of the climate system and potential changes to it resulting from human activities; Working Group II assesses potential impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, and measures that could be adopted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and Working Group III focuses on evaluating the economic implications of climate change. This task involves assessing potential economic damages and the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to decisionmaking. Annex II Preparation Process of the Second Assessment Report for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Main Assessment Report The charge to IPCC's Working Group II is to review what is known, unknown, uncertain, and controversial about the potential impacts of climate change. These include impacts on natural and managed ecosystems, as well as socioeconomic sectors such as human settlements, industry, transportation, health, water supplies, and financial services. WG II is also charged with reviewing information on the technical and economic feasibility of potential options for adapting to or mitigating climate change. The Drafting and Review Process The chapters of the Working Group II contribution to the Second Assessment Report have been prepared by scientists and technical experts from around the world, trained in disciplines ranging from atmospheric chemistry to economics. They include university professors, researchers working in private industry and at national laboratories, and scientific experts from nongovernmental organizations, with chapter writing teams purposefully assembled to represent the broadest possible range of scientific opinion. Each chapter has been prepared by a writing team which consists of one or two Convening Lead Authors (CLAs) and from 2 to 38 other authors (an average of 19 additional authors per chapter), including at least one author from the developing world. Overall, more than 600 authors-representing nearly 60 countries and a number of national and international organizations have been involved in preparing the Working Group II report. The drafting process began in June 1993 at an IPCC plenary meeting, where the basic report structure was approved. Lead authors met 3 months later to finalize the chapter outlines. "Zero-order" drafts were circulated in advance of the second lead authors' meeting in June 1994, and approximately 150 authors used this occasion to provide an internal review of the drafts. First-draft chapters were then circulated to nearly 800 expert reviewers and a variety of stakeholder groups including industry and non-governmental organizations, during the last quarter of 1994. The chapters were substantially revised at the third lead authors' meeting in January 1995. Second drafts underwent reviews by national governments and stakeholder groups, then were revised and reviewed a final time, before acceptance at the Working Group II plenary (Montreal, Canada, 16-20 October 1995). Organization of the Report Working Group II's volume consists of 25 chapters, an ecological primer and an energy primer, three technical appendices, and a summary for policymakers. These chapters cover potential impacts of climate change, adaptations, and mitigation measures in a variety of physical, ecological, and socioeconomic sectors. The Table of Contents and is reproduced at the end of this Annex. |