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Table 7.11 Agricultural Yield Changes Under a 2x Climate (percentage of Gross Agricultural Product).'
Model
UKMO

GISS
Region\Scen 1

2
3
1
2

3 ario

3

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a b

After Rosensweig at d (1993), c also Fischera d (1993(1994?]). Rosendveig and Pany (1994), and Reilly (1994)
The cinete denge scenarios are based on quitbrim 2ą operiments using the General Circulation Modes o
the UK Meteorological Office, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the Geophysical Fhid Dynamics
Laboratory
The scenarios are (1) no adaptation, (2) minor shifts, and (3) major shifts in behaviour.

с

Source:

Tol (1994) (SPELL OUT REGION/SCENARIO ABBREVIATIONS)

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3,000

0.35

4,500

0.65

1,000

0.29

1,500

0.43

Al estimates $ 50%. Source: Tol (1993)

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Option

1.
2.
3.
.

Total

2400 (2400;2400)

Between bracteo: figures for 50% reduction in marginal costs of renewables over all intervals, and for a doubling of marginal cons of foredry over all intervale respectively.

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Table 14.

Comparison of the 19 developinent med encru situations in the mala lub regions.

To per

Aa

Fossil fuels %

CNP
Tr

AI
Ener

Popul (billion GNP ( per Tee per therand
Reglos
Co Oi XC

(Mtoc) tin

cupius) capit LSS War

1
41 19
16

14840 17 373 5.06 0.39 North Ameria 2 22 1S 2 289 26 S738 2009

0.40 Western Europe 1 22

16 20 19 1 496 00 S 901 13 726 3.39 228 JANZ 1 21 S1 12 M 16 SS1 145 3 203 22 279

0.17 East 1 25

8 1 745

3047 7 367 4.22 0.97 Eastera Europe 1 46

19
9 352 125
389 3 101

0.91 ex-L'SSR 20 31 8 1 393 289 2650 9 215

0.52 Norch 1 23

24
14 60.40 1 263

17 BBS
14 163 4.78

0_34 Africa 37 21 71

57 6 300

385 600 0.56
North and
South Africa S DI

3
134 150

1 507 1.02 0.68 sol Sahara 61 Ba 30 9 206

158

0.42 Asia 15

28

78 7 1 475 2 810 1 237 40 0.99 1.19 Cuina 72

S
718 1 139

393 345 0.00 India 28 41

7

337 0.30 Other 19

817

557
681

0.90 Lada America 15 4

956

RAZ 1 880 Brac. 30 S

29 188 150

375 2 495 Medico S S

20

89

170 1920 1.60 0.33 Other 9 $1 74 17 zas

297 1 421 1.09 0.77 Middle Eos 1

1
32

1
233

370 2 150 1.81 0.83 South 17 31 10 74 10 2 624

205 704 0.65 0.93 World 25 36 20

5005 5 292 20 TS 3 916 1.64 Sourca: BP Statistical Review, 1992 and World Resources 1992-93. .To - traditional (woodfuel. crop residues and animal dung): Cocoal; O - Ou: NG natural gas: IF - total fossils: Alalternatives (nuclear. hydro, wind, geothermal, etc.) (all % of total energy); LEner total energy: (M)toe (million) tons of oil equivalent: popul population: GNP - gross national product in 1989.

Westem Europe - OECD Europe (includes Turkey); Eastern Europe - non-OECD Europe (includes Cyprus. Gibraltar and Malta): JANZ - Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

253

[graphic]

Source: Van Ettinger (1994), p.12

Figure 7.1
Schematic overview of available options to counter the
greenhouse effect and their possible feedbacks

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