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Figure B4: The distribution of the change of surface air temperature (°C) simulated near the time of CO, doubling by four coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs in response to a transient CO2 increase. (a) The GFDL results are averaged over years 60-80 and referenced to the 100-year average of a control; (b) the MPI results are averaged over years 56-65 and referenced to the corresponding years of a control; (c) the NCAR results are averaged over years 31-60 and referenced to the corresponding control years; (d) the UKMO results are averaged over years 65.75 und are referenced to the corresponding years of a control. (Manabe et al., 1991: U. Cubasch, G.A. Meehl and J.F.B. Mitchell, all by personal communication.)

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IPCC WG2 Summary for Policymakers References

Etemad, B., J. Luciani, P. Bairoch, and J.C. Toutain, 1991: World Energy Production 1800-1985. Librarie Droz, Geneva, Switzerland, 272 pp.

Fujii, Y., 1990: An Assessment of the Responsibility for the Increase in the CO, Concentration and Inter-generational Carbon Accounts. WP-90-55, IASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 31 pp. Grübler, A. and N. Nakicenovic, 1992: International Burden Sharing in Greenhouse Gas Reduction. Environment Working Paper No. 55, World Bank Environment Department, Washington, DC, 96 pp.

IPCC, 1990a: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Prepared by IPCC Working Group I [J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums (eds.)] and WMO/UNEP. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 365 pp.

IPCC, 1990b: Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment. Prepared by IPCC Working
Group II [W.J. McG. Tegart, G.W. Sheldon, and D.C. Griffiths (eds.)] and WMO/UNEP.
Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, Australia, 275 pp.

IPCC, 1990c: Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies. Prepared by IPCC Working
Group III and WMO/UNEP. Island Press, Covelo, California, 273 pp.
IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to The IPCC Scientific

Assessment. Prepared by IPCC Working Group I [J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander, and S.K.
Varney (eds.)] and WMO/UNEP. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 200 pp.
IPCC, 1994a: Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation
of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. Prepared by Working Groups I and III [J.T.
Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris, and
K. Maskell (eds.)] and WMO/UNEP. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 339 pp.
IPCC, 1994b: IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and

Adaptations. Prepared by IPCC Working Group II [T.R. Carter, M.L. Parry, H. Harasaw, and
S. Nishioka (eds.)] and WMO/UNEP. University College London, UK, and Center for
Global Environmental Research, Japan, 59 pp.

Keeling, C.D., 1994: Global historical CO2 emissions. In: Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on
Global Change [Boden, T.A., D. P. Kaiser, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds.)].
ORNL/CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, TN, pp. 501-

504.

Marland, G., R.J. Andres, and T.A. Boden, 1994: Global, regional, and national CO2 emissions 1950-1991. In: Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change [Boden, T.A., D.P. Kaiser, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds.)]. ORNL/CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, pp. 505-581. Neilson, R.P. and D. Marks, 1994: A global perspective of regional vegetation and hydrologic sensitivities from climatic change. Journal of Vegetation Science, 5, 715–730.

United Nations, 1952: World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. UN, New York, NY.

Notes-Figure 1 pulled from Chapter 1, Table 2 abstracted from data presented in Chapter 13, Figure 3 pulled from Chapter 18, and Figures 5 and 6 pulled from Chapter 19; IPCC (1995) refers

Chapter 7

A Generic Assessment of Response Options

C.J. Jepma, M. Asaduzzaman, I. Mintzer,

R. S. Maya, M. Al-Moneef

Contributors:

J. Byrne, H. Geller, C.A. Hendriks, M. Jefferson, G. Leach, A. Qureshi, W. Sassin, RA. Sedjo, A. van der Veen.

December 1995

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Summary

In this chapter, current response options for dealing with climate change are assessed on the basis of their feasibility, acceptability, cost-effectiveness, and applicability. As much as possible, specific attention has been given to the applicability of these various options in the developing countries and countries in transition. The chapter does not, however, contain an evaluation of the (macro)economic effects that large-scale applications of the various options might have in different regions of the world.

Conceptually a distinction has to be made between mitigation and

adaptation options on the one hand, and indirect options - that is, options that are not designed to have an impact on the greenhouse effect but nevertheless do - on the other. Indeed, many technological developments and various policies have an impact on energy use and thus on the global climate. An effective climate change response strategy should therefore preferably pay attention to possibilities of joining climate response options with responses to other socioeconomic transition phenomena, as in the application of an integrated systems approach.

The various response options can be assessed in fundamentally different ways. At one extreme is the engineering efficiency approach, which focuses only on costs and how these are related to internal and external economies of scale and learning effects. At the other extreme is the welfare economic approach which, in addition, considers such welfare aspects as social, political, or environmental resistance to the option's application. Costs associated with the diffusion of technologies, public education, and lifestyle changes are also taken into account.

A number of CO, mitigation options have been proposed, including:

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Attention has also been focused on reducing emissions of methane.

With respect to energy conservation and efficiency improvement, reductions in energy intensities during recent decades have varied widely across countries

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