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ource: An average of the forecasts from the International Energy Outlook(EIA), World Energy Outlook(IEA), and DRI(only for U.S. and Europe).

MANY FORECASTS, SCENARIOS, AND PROJECTIONS SUGGEST LOWER "BASELINE" EMISSIONS GROWTH IN OECD EUROPE THAN IN OECD NORTH AMERICA OR OECD PACIFIC.

This pattern is consistent with recent emissions experience over the 1990 through 1994 period discussed above. Individual forecasts, scenarios, and projections differ widely.

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Annual Net GHG Emissions through 2100 (net CO2 Methane, N20)

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IPCC SCENARIOS SUGGEST THAT THE CONTRIBUTION OF NON-ANNEX I
COUNTRIES TO GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SURPASS THAT OF
ANNEX I COUNTRIES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT CENTURY

The figure illustrates IS92a, one of the "mid range" scenarios

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Source: Pacific Northwest Laboratories calculation using U.S. EPA, IS92A Data Set. Radiative forcing calculated using MAGICC Model.

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