Figure A.4. Relative contribution of different greenhouse gases by Party Excludes land use change and forestry. Other includes PFCs, HFCs, and SF. IPCC-1994 GWP values with a time-horizon of 100 years, previously unavailable, were used by the secretariat for comparative purposes. New Zealand reported emissions for PFCs of 0.1 Gg. The secretariat has assumed that approximately 5 per cent of these emissions are from C,F, and the remaining 95 per cent from CF.. Comments CO, was the most significant anthropogenic greenhouse gas For 13 Parties, CO, contributed more than 70 per cent of of CH was larger than that of CO2. In another case, the importance of other gases was higher than for any other Party because of aluminium smelting. Page 73 English A/AC.237/81 g:\review\usalusarep2.fin Draft 26 January 1996 UNITED STATES Report on the in-depth review of the national communication of the United States of America Review team: Rodito Buan, Philippines Trevor Morgan. International Energy Agency Peer Stiansen, UNFCCC secretariat, Coordinator Under Articles 4 and 12 of the Convention, Parties are required n prepare national communications on their implementation of the Convention. Guidelines for the preparation of national communications and the process for their review were agreed on by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change, by its decisions 9/2 and 10/1, and by the Conference of the Parties, at its first session, by its decisions 2/CP.1 and 3/CP.1 (see FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1). In accordance with these decisions, a compilation and synthesis of the first 15 national communications from Annex I Parties was prepared (A/AC.237/81). When reviewing the implementation of the Convention by Parties, the subsidiary bodies and the Conference of the Parties will have this report available to them in English as well as the summary of the report in the six official languages of the United Nations. (These bodies will also have before them the cxecutive summary of the first national communication of the United States of America and country-specific information drawn from a compilation and synthesis report covering all countries that have submitted national commumications.) 3. Summary 1. The in-depth review was carried out between April and August 1995 and included a visit by the team from 22 to 26 May 1995. The team included experts from the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Sweden and the International Energy Agency. 2. The team found the national communication of the United States of America to be generally transparent, well-documented and presented in accordance with the reporting guidelines established for Annex I Parties and recognized that the author country had put major resources into the preparation of the background material for the various sections. 3. The United States of America, having the world's largest economy, is responsible for slightly less than one fourth of global carhon dioxide (CO) emissions (4520 Mt 080 Gg in 1990) and has the highest emissions of CO, per capita (20 tons compared to an average of 12 tons in countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), among the Partics that have submitted their communications. Another key factor identified by the team was the fact that low energy prices in the United States are likely to have created significant untapped potential for cost effective limited incentives for energy efficiency improvements and greenhouse gas emission reductions. 4. The team noted that greenhouse gas emission and removal estimates are highly uncertain in several sectors where the United States hopes to achieve significant reductions in net emissions, but acknowledged that the United States is putting a great deal of effort into reducing these uncertainties. In particular, the team noted the uncertainty surrounding United States estimates of removals of carbon resulting from anthropogenic activity and believes there is a need to develop common international definitions of "forest land" and "managed forest". 5. The United States Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) builds and expands upon existing legislation and is primarily made up of a variety of mechanisms to promote and facilitatc voluntary actions to deal with emissions of CO2, methane (CH), nitrous oxide (NO), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) and perfluorocarbons (PFC) as well as CO, removals by sinks. Efforts to mitigate climate change in the United States have been hampered by the fact that the United States Congress only approved per coal less than 50 per cent of the funding required to implement the CCAP in its fust year and that it appears likely that the second year of the CCAP will also receive only partial funding an even lower share. Moreover, funding to implement important prc-CCAP programmes, for example under die 1992 Energy Policy Act, has also been cut back by more than 40 per cent and the methane landfill regulation is yet to be issued. The United States is now undertaking, with the participation of industry and environmental stakeholders, an official review on the status of implementation of the CCAP that will be made public in October 1995 early 1996. 6. The team concluded that the innovative nature of a number of these measures warrant their consideration by other countries as one element of a climate change response strategy. In particular, other countries can benefit from the work the United States has done to create milestones for each CCAP initiative and to develop systems to monitor their implementation and affectiveness. Even so, the team noted that the government is aware of the potential for double-counting the emission reductions associated with different voluntary programmes and the difficulty of separating emission reductions achieved through voluntary initiatives from the baseline emissions projection and that it has addressed this in its assessment. 7. While most of the United States voluntary programmes have met or exceeded their initial implementation milestones, it seems unlikely that more ambitious future milestones will be met unless these programines are fully funded or modified to account for reduced levels of funding. Major budget cuts for the institutions operating them, notably the Department of Energy (DOH) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), also represent challenges for the continuing of the programmes. 8. While the industry response to call for voluntary actions has been positive, many of the measures outlined in the CCAP are still at an early stage of development. This means that industry has, at this time, often made only very general commitments to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. More specific commitments, and their implementation, are exposted in the years ahead. 9. The team also noted the importance of state and local governments in the implementation of the UNFCCC. In particular, deregulation of utilities and electricity markets envisaged to take place over the next decades, may have several cffccts on cmissions, although the total effect is not clear. Furthermore, these governments also have responsibilitics for, inter alia, building standards, highway planning and speed limits. 10. While the team noted that the projections contained in the national communication were methodologically sound and based on reasonable assumptions at the time the CCAP was prepared, key assumptions pertaining to economic growth, energy prices, and funding for (CAP programmes nccd to be revised. As a result, the icam concluded that net greenhouse gas emissions are now less likely to return to 1990 levels than was thie case when the CCAP was released. Now measures to reducc United States greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be based on a voluntary approach, given the current political climate-in the United States. The CCAP had anticipated that energy-related carbon emissions would increase by about 3 pcr cent between 1990 and 2000 under full plan implementation, with this increase offset by reductions in other greeenhouse gases. When the review was carried out, it appeared that CO, and HFC emissions had higher growth potentials. In the course of the review, it was noted that energy-related CO, emissions had likely increased in 1994, because energy demand in that year was 1.5 per cent above the 1993 level. CO, emissions in 1993 were 4.1 per cent above 1990 levels. 11. The team noted that statc and local governments are responsible for most formal education programmes in the United States, and that United States legislation restricts the rule of the federal Government in public education on the climate change issuc. Nonetheless, Despite these limitations, several government agencies undertake public outreach efforts on climate change. The team recognized the crucial contribution of the United States to the scientific |