A/AC 237/84 142. The range of reported estimates of total effects in 2000 was wide, reductions of between 4 and 20 per cent from baseline scenarios for CO2 and wider for other gases, reflecting differences in policies, national circumstances and approaches to the estimates. Owing to the heterogeneous character of their information, the secretariat has been unable to present it in tables. 143. In general, most of the Parties focused on measures induced by government policies. To a limited extent, they elaborated on the effects of actions by individuals or organizations that were not induced by policies. One Party, for which energy conservation generated the bulk of estimated CO2 reductions, said that "no distinction can be made between policyinduced and autonomous effects on energy conservation". Consequently, their estimate of t the effects of these policies and measures was the difference between projections with and without energy conservation. 144. When giving their estimates, several Parties did not distinguish between policies and measures implemented or committed to before and after 1990. Some included policies and measures implemented in the 1990s in their baseline, while others included in their effect figures, policies and measures implemented earlier. D. Summary conclusions 145. The 15 Parties made considerable efforts to communicate projections according to the Convention and the guidelines. In most cases where the guidelines used the words "should" and "encouraged", information was provided. However, only nine of the Parties gave estimates of the total effects of policies and measures, often described as very uncertain. Where information was not given, this was often due to lack of adequate methods in the reporting country. 146. The "with measures" projections reveal a different pattern for CO2 emissions than for emissions of other gases. The following analysis compares projected figures for 2000 with the 1990 figures used in developing the projections (three of which included "adjustments") rather than with the 1990 inventory figures, since the projections were derived from the former. 147. For CO2 emissions (excluding land use change and forestry) (table 1), nine Parties projected an increase to the year 2000 in the absence of additional measures. Five Parties projected stabilization or a decrease for 2000. Another Party projected only a decrease for 2005. Seven Parties projected increased "net" CO2 removals from the land use change and forestry sector for 2000; two Parties projected stable removals and one Party, decreasing A/AC:237/81 148. For CH, (table 3), all but two Parties projected decreases, despite the fact that, in relative terms, Parties focused less attention on policies to address CH. No clear picture emerges for N2O (table 4). Few Parties provided projections of other gases (table 5), but for those that did, emissions of PFCs were decreasing, while emissions of HFCs were increasing. If IPCC-1994 GWP values are used to aggregate the emission data for all gases, projected emission levels in 2000 were below 1990 levels for five Parties and above for nine Parties (table 6). One Party projected a decrease to 2005. For three of the Parties whose emissions were projected to grow, the increase was less than 2 per cent. If CO2 removals are included (table 7), then seven Parties project decreases on a CO2, equivalent basis. 149. In due time, it will be possible to assess the achievement of the aim of returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 by comparing the inventory figures for those two years. At present, a comparison of CO2 emission projections for 2000 with inventories for 1990 suggests a somewhat greater need for additional measures than that indicated by the above analysis. 150. The projected emission levels in 2000 should not be seen as absolute predictions. They were developed on the basis of a variety of assumptions and inputs, including with regard to which policies and measures were taken into consideration. Many Parties acknowledged that additional policies and measures would have to be implemented for them to return their emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels. They indicated that policies and measures that would result in additional emission reductions were under preparation or implementation. 3 VII. FINANCE, TECHNOLOGY AND CAPACITY BUILDING 151. In accordance with Article 12.3 and the guidelines, all 14 Annex II Parties that submitted communications reported on actions to meet the obligations contained in Article 4.3, 4.4 and 4.5, although the level and breadth of coverage varied considerably. 152. On the basis of the information provided, it has been difficult to draw clear conclusions about the nature and level of contributions and the assistance provided by Annex II Parties to developing country Parties for the purpose of implementing the Convention. The information was not comparable in terms of figures provided and time-frames of reported expenditures. A distinction was not always drawn between activities undertaken before and after adoption of the Convention. Finally, descriptions of many activities were reported only as "environmental", reflecting the difficulty in isolating climate change mitigation or adaptation activities from broader questions of sustainable development. As a result, it has been difficult to aggregate data or to present summary tables. A/AC.237/81 Page 45 A. Financial mechanism 153. Article 21 designates the GEF as the entity entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism on an interim basis. The guidelines request Annex II Parties to provide information on contributions to the operating entity or entities of the financial mechanism. 154. Eleven of the Parties that contributed to the pilot phase of the GEF reported on these contributions. Two Parties did not mention their contributions although they were contributors. One Party indicated that it did not contribute to the pilot phase. The figures reported in the national communications are not presented here because of ambiguities in time periods and because it was not always specified whether figures included core and/or cofinancing and parallel contributions. In general, however, the figures reported for each country appear consistent with the figures published by the GEF secretariat (see table 8). Contributions from the reporting Parties constitute 68 per cent of total pilot phase funding. Contributions reported by the GEF in SDR have been converted into US dollars, A/AC.237/81 155. With regard to replenishment of the GEF (1994-1997), 12 of the Parties indicated they had made, or would make, contributions or pledges. Two Parties did not address this matter, but the GEF secretariat has confirmed that they have pledge or made contributions. Figures in table 8 are pledges or contributions as reported by GEF. The funding from the reporting Parties constitutes 82 per cent of the total for the replenished GEF. 156. It is important to note that only part of the GEF, resources fund climate change activities. During the pilot phase, this amounted to 38 per cent or $281.8 million. There has, as yet, been no specific allocation of funds for climate change or other focal areas in the current phase of the GEF. The initial planning of resource use for 1995 makes some funding allocations that incorporate climate change activities without separating these from activities in other focal areas. In this context, Article 11.3 (d) provides that the COP and the entity or entities entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism shall agree upon arrangements to determine in a predictable and identifiable manner the amount of funding necessary and available for the implementation of the Convention and the conditions under which that amount shall be periodically reviewed. 157. The guidelines request Parties to report on actions to meet the obligation contained in Article 4.3 to "provide new and additional financial resources" to meet the costs specified in that article. Approximately two thirds of the Parties mentioned "new and additional", "additional" or "expanded" resources. About half of these indicated that their contributions to the GEF were new and additional and should be seen as fulfilling this commitment. 158. The Instrument for the Establishment of the Restructured GEF ("the GEF Instrument") defines the facility as "a mechanism for international cooperation for the purpose of providing new and additional grant and concessional funding" (emphasis added). By agreement of those participating in the GEF, financing through the mechanism is to be new and additional. 159. It is difficult to draw conclusions from the communications with regard to "new and additional". There is no way to confirm that resources described as such are in fact "new and additional" and no agreed benchmark against which such verification could take place (that is, new as of when or additional to what). Moreover, the fact that a number of Parties did not refer to "new and additional resources" in their communications does not mean that A/AC.237/81 160. A report prepared for the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) in February 1994' may shed some light on the general issue of "additionality". It summarized the current flows in official development assistance (ODA) from members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD. Aggregate ODA increased in 1992 by 6.6 per cent in nominal terms, representing a small increase in real terms. Contributions by DAC countries to multilateral agencies rose by 19 per cent, mainly owing to higher contributions to the International Development Association and the regional development banks. Bilateral aid, by contrast, declined by 7 per cent in real terms in 1992. Preliminary analyses for 1993 indicate that ODA from DAC members declined from $60.8 billion in 1992 to $56.0 billion in 1993, a 6 per cent decline in real terms. Proportionately, donors' contributions to multilateral institutions fell more sharply than their bilateral programmes. The decrease in bilateral ODA was due to a decline in loans, while bilateral grants remained at the 1992 level.10 B. Financial resources through bilateral, regional and other multilateral channels Miner 161. In addition to the financial mechanism, bilateral, regional and other multilateral channels may be used to transfer resources from Annex II Parties to developing country Parties for the implementation of the Convention (Article 11.5). The guidelines request Annex II Parties to report on these financial flows, specifying whether such resources are related to mitigation or adaptation. Bilateral channels 162. All but one of the communications reported on bilateral activities, and about two thirds had a specific section on the subject. The themes most commonly mentioned were energy, capacity building, transfer of technology, adaptation, forestry and research. In this context, the following sectors were mentioned frequently: (a) Twelve Parties described bilateral activities in renewable energy (for example, hydro, biomass, photovoltaic/solar systems and wind) and generation with low carbon fuels; *Financial resources and mechanisms for sustainable development: overview of current issues and developments", E/CN.17/ISWG.11/1994/2, 22 February 1994. Trends in volume and allocations of Official Development Assistance, OECD/DAC Chairman's Report, October 1994, p. 78. |