A/AC.237/81 emissions. In some cases, financial incentives have been introduced by Parties to promote the development of sewage treatment facilities and support projects to use biogas. 108. Some countries have adopted voluntary agreements to promote recovery of energy from wastes. These measures related mostly to increased recovery of landfill methane for energy production. One country specifically mentioned plans to launch large-scale programmes to reduce CH, emissions in this sector. These programmes are expected to make use of voluntary agreements, regulations and research related to landfill use. C. Research and development 109. Virtually all national communications reported on government-funded research and development (R&D) programmes aimed at developing technologies or practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance sinks. In some communications, these programmes were described largely in the chapter on policies and measures while in others they were discussed in a specific chapter on research. For the purposes of the synthesis, these elements are consolidated here. The information provided on these programmes varied widely, ranging from the description of individual research projects to simple outlines of national R&D programmes. Some countries provided information on financial commitments to specific projects and a few provided budget information for entire R&D programmes. 110. With respect to the energy and transformation industries, most Parties reported on R&D efforts in the area of renewable energy sources like solar, wind and biomass. About half of the communications described R&D efforts to improve the efficiency of electricity generation. A few countries highlighted research in nuclear energy. On the energy-use side, virtually all communications described R&D work on technologies to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and energy-using equipment. 111. In transportation, more than half of the communications highlighted R&D on alternative fuels such as biomass-based fuels, natural gas and electric vehicles. Seven countries described R&D under way on transportation infrastructure and management, and a few noted research to improve the fuel economy of passenger vehicles. 112. Few countries reported on R&D related to sink enhancement. More than half of the communications did, however, describe support for R&D of CO2 disposal or CO2 fertilization. In the waste area, about half of the communications described R&D for landfill CH, recovery for energy purposes. Only a few countries mentioned research in the area of recycling. In the agricultural sector, one third of the communications described R&D work to improve management of fertilizers and soils. A few countries mentioned research into the A/AC.237/81 113. Virtually all countries also included a brief discussion of socio-economic research in their communications. For the most part, the research described relates to the identification of emission reductions associated with various policy responses to climate change. A few countries also mentioned research into issues surrounding policy implementation such as the role of behavioural change in energy efficiency programmes. D.. Measures under consideration or requiring international cooperation 114. Twelve Parties referred to the need for a degree of coordination in the implementation of policies and measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions so as to avoid market distortions, particularly with respect to international competitiveness. Two Parties pointed to the potential adverse effects of unilateral measures. CO2 and energy taxes, product eco-labelling and standards (for example, on catalytic converters, large combustion plants and buildings) were the policy tools most frequently mentioned in this regard. These references are also pertinent to the implementation of commitments under Article 4.2(e) and (i). 115. A number of Parties that belong to the European Community suggested that this organization is an effective mechanism for achieving international cooperation and for advancing coordinated efforts towards the implementation of measures. Five Parties referred to a CO2 and energy tax and their preference for its implementation through the European Community. One country referred to a specific exemption of electricity generating industries from a domestic CO2 tax pending international coordination regarding taxation on energy. Four other Parties described measures such as product standards and product labelling which were introduced in the framework of the European Community. E. Summary conclusions⚫ 116. All reporting Parties are implementing policies and measures to mitigate climate change and each Party reported policies and measures targeted at CO, and CH. The majority of Parties are planning or are implementing policies and measures which target all the major emission source categories. Carbon dioxide is the main focus of attention. 117. Some communications followed the guidelines by providing detailed descriptions on a measure-by-measure basis by gas and by sector; others provided only a broad overview of policies and measures. The absence of detailed information, particularly with regard to the status of implementation, the effects of individual measures, monitoring progress, and interactions among measures made aggregation difficult and constrained the results. 118. Inventories of reporting countries show that CO2 from the energy sector is the largest source of greenhouse gases, Energy-related policies and measures received significant A/AC.237/81 emphasis across the communications. These measures were directed at energy production and distribution and at end-use in the residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors. Efforts to improve the efficiency of electricity supply and some fuel conversion were commonly mentioned. Increased energy efficiency is a key element of climate change mitigation strategies. Energy-related R&D was prominent. 119. The residential, commercial and institutional, transport and industry end-use sectors appear to be where the Parties were most active. When taking into account the very limited information on projected effects of measures, the residential, commercial and institutional sector emerges as making a major contribution to expected CO2 emissions limitations. Transportation is a growing source of greenhouse gas emissions. Policy trends indicated in communications show a continuing emphasis on reducing emissions through regulation and on encouraging fuel efficiency improvements for individual vehicles. Voluntary agreements appear to be of increasing interest for transportation measures. 120. All Parties included some sink enhancement measures, with two of these reporting the bulk of their expected reductions from these efforts. 121. Communications highlighted the significance of international cooperation for climate change policies and measures, particularly when they could potentially affect trade flows. 122. VI. PROJECTIONS AND EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND MEASURES Pursuant to Article 4.2 and the guidelines, all Parties provided projections for anthropogenic emissions. In most cases, projections were provided for the three major gases as well as removals by sinks. In some, projections were also provided for other gases and precursors. One Party provided figures for 2005 rather than for 2000. 123. Several Parties stated that their "with measures" projections, incorporating current policies and measures, did not necessarily reflect what they expected their emission levels to be in 2000 since they intended to develop and implement further measures. The projections provide information on progress made towards the aim specified in Article 4.2 but should be seen in the context of statements on national targets, monitoring of progress and further development of policies and measures. 124. The sections of the communications dealing with projections and effects of policies and measures were very heterogeneous. In an effort to present the information as concisely as possible and in accordance with decision 10/1, the data are set out in tables 1-7. However, it is important to emphasize that projections from one country are not A/AC.237/81 comparable with those from another because of differences in modelling approaches, key input assumptions, sources projected, the representation of policies and measures, the uncertainties of projections due to national circumstances and adjustments in some of the 1990 levels for temperature anomalies or electricity trade. As one communication noted: "... the most useful way to interpret the numerical values quoted in this chapter is to obtain an appreciation of the order of magnitude of the issues. That is, to draw out their qualitative inferences rather than to apply a rigorous mathematical analysis" (emphasis added). A. Approaches used and methodological issues 125. Parties used different approaches to estimate their projected emissions, reflecting variations in economic structure, experience and data availability. "Top-down" economic models played a dominant role for CO2 projections. Some countries based their projections on sectoral models, typically for the energy and transport sectors. Some Parties combined "top down" models with more technologically explicit "bottom-up" approaches. It is well known that the use of different models can generate significantly different outcomes. Projections of emissions of non-CO2 gases and of removals by sinks were, in general, based on more disaggregated approaches. Most Parties provided enough information to allow a third party to obtain a qualitative understanding of the approaches used. 126. It was often unclear how relevant policies and measures were reflected in the projections. In general, the approaches used did not allow complete representation of all policies and measures to the level of detail in which they had been implemented. In part, this is because there is insufficient information on the effects of some policies and measures. In addition, the level of aggregation in some types of models was high. Several Parties noted that such aggregation made it difficult to account for any overlap and synergies between different policies and measures. 127. Important assumptions in developing projections related to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, energy prices and structural changes in energy demand and supply. Eleven Parties gave information on their assumed GDP growth rates for 1991-2000. These ranged from 0.8 to 3.8 per cent per annum, which is in line with projections from OECD3 (1.9-3.0 per cent for 1991-2000) and World Energy Council (2.4 per cent for 1990-2000). Twelve countries reported their assumptions for real energy prices on world or regional markets: all 12 for oil, prices, four for coal and/or gas. With respect to world oil prices, three countries assumed "low" prices in 2000 ($17-20 per barrel), five assumed "moderate" prices ($22-24) See OECD, Economic Outlook, OECD, Paris, 1993; and Energy for Tomorrow's World, World Energy Council, Kogan Page, A/AC.237/81 and four assumed "high" prices ($27-30). These figures are in line with the IEA World Energy Outlook ($27.3 for the reference case and $20 as an alternative assumption). 128. Various types of uncertainties related to natural variations and policy choices were reported by several countries. A few Parties provided sensitivity analyses of variations in some key inputs. Some also raised issues such as temperature variations, electricity trade, choices of fuels (especially for electricity production), precipitation (for hydro power availability), changes in behaviour, uncertainties in emissions factors (inventories) and in the effects of policies and measures. 129. Several Parties noted that 1990 was warmer than normal. One Party adjusted its inventory and the starting point for the projections. Another Party adjusted only the starting point for its projections in the same way, and two gave quantitative indications of what such an adjustment would have meant for them. 130. Several Parties mentioned electricity trade in relation to projections. One country accounted for its net imports of electricity in 1990 by simulating production of that electricity from available plants within its own borders; another stated that it had accounted for net electricity imports in its 2000 projection without attaching emissions to it, and yet another stated that emissions generated for exported or imported electricity were not taken into account. 131. The Parties that used adjustments did so transparently and expressed the view that, as conditions in projected years were assumed to be average, the adjustments made it easier to demonstrate how policies and measures influenced emissions. B. Projected anthropogenic emissions and removals in 2000 132. All Parties provided information that constituted, or could be interpreted as, "with measures" projections for CO2 emissions. Most Parties incorporated in their 2000 figures, to the extent possible, the effects of policies and measures that were implemented or committed to when the communication was produced, often assuming that current funding levels would be continued. Some assumed only partial implementation of action plans/mitigation programmes, while others assumed full implementation and funding of planned activities. One Party included fewer policies and measures in its projections than had already been implemented. In some cases, projections were made for only a part of the economy. Some Parties did not include a "with measures" projection, but provided a "without measures" or "reference" projection and estimated the effects of policies and measures on emissions |