A/AC.237/81 Parties mentioning national targets, five could be characterized as having "stabilization" targets (one on a per capita basis), four as having "reduction targets" and four as having some combination of stabilization and reduction. 39. Six Parties mentioned specifically that, based on policies and measures already undertaken or likely to be adopted, they expected to attain their national targets. Four Parties acknowledged that additional measures would have to be taken if their national targets were to be reached. The other communications were not explicit on this point. Most countries described processes in which inter-ministerial committees would assess results achieved with a view to adjusting and further developing policies. IV. INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS AND 40. Pursuant to Articles 4.1(a) and 12.1(a), all reporting Parties communicated a 1990 national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. As requested by the guidelines, all Parties, using consistent formats, presented emission estimates on a gas-by-gas basis and addressed the three main greenhouse gases, CO2, CH, and N2O. All Parties also addressed the ozone precursors (CO, NO, and NMVOCs) although one Party did not estimate CO and NMVOCs. Nine Parties provided estimates for PFCs, three for HFCs and three for SF. All but one Party provided land use change and forestry CO2 estimates which encompass removals. 41. The guidelines requested Parties to use the IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories ("the IPCC Guidelines") in estimating, reporting and verifying inventory data. All Parties provided a report of their inventory data using the summary table recommended by the IPCC. 42. A. Presentation of results Tables A.1-A.8 summarizing inventory data for CO2, CH1, N2O, international bunkers, other greenhouse gases and ozone precursors appear in the annex to this document. Each table is accompanied by explanatory footnotes and by a brief analytical overview. As a result of the different ways of reporting used by Parties, it has been necessary to present CO2 emission and removal data from land use change and forestry separately. This permits the data to be presented in a consistent and coherent manner. Percentage distributions of CO2, CH, and N2O emissions by source/sink categories are also provided in the form of pie charts. A/AC.237/81 43. Figure A.4 shows the relative contributions of the different greenhouse gases for each Party, and the aggregate for all Parties, based on calculations using GWP values recently approved by the IPCC (IPCC-1994). Such a presentation can be regarded as a technical contribution to the analysis of inventory results and not as prejudging a decision by the COP on the use of GWPs. 44. B. Methodological issues relating to the reporting of inventories 1. Transparency In order to ensure transparency, Parties were requested to provide enough information to allow the reconstruction of their inventories from national activity data, emission factors and other assumptions, as well as to assess the results. However, the IPCC minimum documentation standards to ensure transparency in reporting inventory data were not always followed. Ten Parties provided the IPCC standard data tables, which allowed the comparison of aggregate emission factors and activity data. For some source/sink categories this proved sufficient to ensure transparency. However, for other categories the necessary explanations of methods and data used at the level of detail at which the estimates are calculated (including a description of any intermediary calculation involved) were sometimes missing. In general, the more complex methods were less likely to be fully documented or independently verifiable. Insufficient documentation also made it difficult to understand if miscalculation, double-counting, omission or deviation from the IPCC Guidelines had occurred. 45. A preliminary analysis of inventory data indicates that nine Parties have provided enough information to allow for the reconstruction and the assessment of their inventory data related to energy. Because it was not possible to fully assess all the supporting documentation provided by Parties in the time available, the transparency of data for all source/sink categories will be further examined as part of the in-depth reviews. 46. 2. Methodological issues and approaches In general, valuable information on methods and data was provided. This section focuses only on methodological issues of relevance to the Committee and the COP. The wealth of material generated during the technical analysis of inventories could be compiled for further consideration by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice. 47. Most Parties referred to the IPCC Guidelines when presenting their inventory results to point out that their estimation methods were consistent with, based on, or generally followed, the IPCC Guidelines. Parties also stated that when appropriate to national needs A/AC.237/81 and capabilities, detailed country-specific methods and data were used. Two Parties used the CORINAIR® methodology. One Party only did not document which methods were used. Energy 48. Data for CO2 emissions from fuel combustion were consistent with other authoritative sources of country-specific estimates. This confirms the quality and degree of confidence that can be associated with the CO, inventory data, despite the problems identified during the technical analysis. Most estimates were within 5 per cent of estimates available from IEA.' 49. Parties used two basic approaches to calculate emissions from energy consumption: a top-down approach, as described in the IPCC Guidelines, and a bottom-up sectoral approach. The former was used by eight Parties, the latter by six; for one Party it was unclear which method had been used. For those that used the top-down approach and provided only the IPCC standard data tables, CO2 emission estimates were not appropriately documented. Elements needed to ensure transparency include detailed information on approaches and methods used, sources of data, treatment of feedstocks, percentage of carbon oxidized, heating values and other assumptions. One Party reported CO, estimates calculated using the IPCC recommendations and its own method (the difference was less than one per cent). 50. The treatment of feedstocks was not always documented which made it difficult to assess whether double-counting between the energy, industrial processes and waste categories had occurred. At least one Party departed from the IPCC Guidelines by including CO2 emissions from biomass fuel combustion in its energy total. This Party explained that it had done so because the biomass material it used was mainly imported. Land use change and forestry 51. The methods used to estimate emissions and removals from "managed forests" (described by the IPCC as the main category where removals would occur) built on the IPCC default methods. There were two general approaches that should yield similar results: Six Parties measured actual biomass increment and harvest, thereby estimating emissions and removals separately (essentially the IPCC default method) CORINAIR is the component dealing with air emissions inventories of the European Economic Community Programme CORINE (Coordination d'Information Environnementale). 7 OECD/IEA, Climate Change Policy Initiatives, 1994 Update, vol. 1: OECD countries, OECD, Pāris, 1994, p. 25. A/AC:237/81 Two Parties calculated the difference in total stock between two different points in time, thereby making it technically unfeasible to estimate emissions separately from removals The other Parties either used quantitative models or did not document their methods. 52. An initial assessment indicates that only five Parties provided the information needed to reconstruct their estimates from this category. There was some confusion on the meaning of listing emissions separately from removals. This needs clarification. Waste 53. At least three Parties deviated from the IPCC Guidelines by including CO2 from organic waste combustion or aerobic decomposition of organic carbon in their totals. Other gases 54. The information provided on PFCs and HFCs was not always given per type of gas; this would be useful in the light of their different GWPs. 3. Level of uncertainty 55. Parties were requested to discuss the level of uncertainty associated with quantitative inventory data, at least qualitatively. Eleven did so by providing information on uncertainty either on a gas-by-gas basis or at the source/sink category level, with four Parties doing so quantitatively. The information provided on the level of confidence by gas may be summarized as follows: CO2: high, except for land use change (low) and forestry (medium) CH: medium N2O: low to medium NO,: high to medium CO and NMVOC: medium to low Six Parties also provided a self-assessment of the completeness and quality of their A/AC.237/81 56. 4. Inconsistencies/comparability problems When comparing and aggregating results across Parties, the following should be taken into account. Some Parties departed from the guidelines, used different assumptions, defined source/sink categories differently, omitted gases and/or categories included by other Parties or included offshore territories. Three Parties reported their inventory for a fiscal year rather than the 1990 calendar year, with one doing so only for the energy category. More work is needed to assess these elements and determine how the comparability of future inventories can be enhanced. 57. In addition to providing actual emission estimates, one Party also adjusted its CO2 emission estimate upward to take account of warmer climatic conditions and presented this adjusted figure as the working figure. Five Parties noted that 1990 had not been a normal climatic year but did not adjust their data, although one presented an adjusted emission estimate for information purposes. Another Party adjusted its emission estimates upward to take account of electricity imports. The use of such adjustments raises questions of consistency that require guidance. In the relevant tables in this report, the secretariat has dealt with such cases by presenting the unadjusted inventory figures and addressing the adjustments in a footnote. 5. Additional information provided by Parties 58. The guidelines mention the possibility of presenting inventory information for years subsequent to 1990. Six Parties provided such information for CO2 emissions, five for CH, and four for N2O. Most provided data for 1991 and 1992, and two Parties also provided some data for 1993. No clear trend in emissions is evident. In most cases, emissions in 1992 and 1993 were not significantly different from emissions in 1990. 59. With regard to the other optional provisions of the guidelines: (a) Eleven Parties presented information based on the use of GWPS for a time-horizon of 100 years, mainly for CH, and N2O with values given by the IPCC in 1992. IPCC-1990, IPCC-1994 and national GWP values were also used; (b) Six Parties provided information on historical trends, mainly for CO2; (c) Three Parties provided information on a per capita basis, one of which included estimates on a per GDP basis; and (d) One Party provided estimates for SO, and CFCs and related compounds. |