Box 3. Sensitivity, Adaptability, and Vulnerability

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system will respond to a change in climatic conditions (e.g., the extent of change in ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, including primary productivity, resulting from a given change in temperature or precipitation).

Adaptability refers to the degree to which adjustments are possible in practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes of climate. Adaptation can be spontaneous or planned, and can be carried out in response to or in anticipation of changes in conditions.

Vulnerability defines the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system. It depends not only on a system's sensitivity but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions.

Both the magnitude and the rate of climate change are important in determining the sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability of a system.

managerial, institutional, legal, and regulatory practices, both domestic and international in scope. Incorporating climatechange concerns into resource-use and development decisions and plans for regularly scheduled investments in infrastructure will facilitate adaptation.

Vulnerability increases as adaptive capacity decreases. The vulnerability of human health and socioeconomic systemsand, to a lesser extent, ecological systems-depends upon economic circumstances and institutional infrastructure. This implies that systems typically are more vulnerable in developing countries where economic and institutional circumstances are less favorable. People who live on arid or semi-arid lands, in low-lying coastal areas, in water-limited or flood-prone areas, or on small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Some regions have become more vulnerable to hazards such as storms, floods, and droughts as a result of increasing population density in sensitive areas such as river basins and coastal plains. Human activities, which fragment many landscapes, have increased the vulnerability of lightly managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Fragmentation limits natural adaptation potential and the potential effectiveness of measures to assist adaptation in these systems, such as the provision of migration corridors. A changing climate's near-term effects on ecological and socioeconomic systems most likely will result from changes in the intensity and seasonal and geographic distribution of common weather hazards such as storms, floods, and droughts. In most of these examples, vulnerability can be reduced by strengthening adaptive capacity.

Detection will be difficult, and unexpected changes cannot be ruled out. Unambiguous detection of climate-induced

changes in most ecological and social systems will prove extremely difficult in the coming decades. This is because of the complexity of these systems, their many non-linear feedbacks, and their sensitivity to a large number of climatic and non-climatic factors, all of which are expected to continue to change simultaneously. The development of a baseline projecting future conditions without climate change is crucial, for it is this baseline against which all projected impacts are measured. As future climate extends beyond the boundaries of empirical knowledge (i.e., the documented impacts of climate variation in the past), it becomes more likely that actual outcomes will include surprises and unanticipated rapid changes.

Ecosystems contain the Earth's entire reservoir of genetic and species diversity and provide many goods and services critical to individuals and societies. These goods and services include (i) providing food, fiber, medicines, and energy; (ii) processing and storing carbon and other nutrients; (iii) assimilating wastes, purifying water, regulating water runoff, and controlling floods, soil degradation, and beach erosion; and (iv) providing opportunities for recreation and tourism. These systems and the functions they provide are sensitive to the rate and extent of changes in climate. Figure 1 illustrates that mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation can be correlated with the distribution of the world's major biomes.

The composition and geographic distribution of many ecosystems will shift as individual species respond to changes in climate; there will likely be reductions in biological diversity and in the goods and services that ecosystems provide society. Some ecological systems may not reach a new equilibrium for several centuries after the climate achieves a new balance.

Forests. Models project that a sustained increase of 1°C in global mean temperature is sufficient to cause changes in regional climates that will affect the growth and regeneration capacity of forests in many regions. In several instances this will alter the function and composition of forests significantly. As a consequence of possible changes in temperature and water availability under doubled equivalent-CO, equilibrium conditions, a substantial fraction (a global average of one-third, varying by region from one-seventh to two-thirds) of the existing forested area of the world will undergo major changes in broad vegetation types-with the greatest changes occurring in high latitudes and the least in the tropics. Climate change is expected to occur at a rapid rate relative to the speed at which forest species grow.

Rainforest

TROPICAL

TEMPERATE

BOB

BOREAL

Desert Semi-Desert

Scrubland

Forest

Thorn Scrub

Grassland

Woodland

Mean Annual Temperature (°C)

Tundra

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)

Figure 1: This figure illustrates that mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation can be correlated with the distribution of the world's major biomes. While the role of these annual means in affecting this distribution is important, it should be noted that the distribution of biomes may also strongly depend on seasonal factors such as the length of the dry season or the lowest absolute minimum temperature, on soil properties such as water. holding capacity, on land-use history such as agriculture or graz. ing, and on disturbance regimes such as the frequency of fire.

species composition, but altered rainfall amount and seasonality and increased evapotranspiration will. Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration may raise the carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of forage for herbivores, thus reducing its food value. Shifts in temperature and precipitation in temperate rangelands may result in altered growing seasons and boundary shifts between grasslands, forests, and shrublands.

Deserts and Desertification. Deserts are likely to become more extreme-in that, with few exceptions, they are projected to become hotter but not significantly wetter. Temperature increases could be a threat to organisms that exist near their heat-tolerance limits. The impacts on water balance, hydrology, and vegetation are uncertain. Desertification, as defined by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, is land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities. Desertification is more likely to become irreversible if the environment becomes drier and the soil becomes further degraded through erosion and compaction. Adaptation to drought and desertification may rely on the development of diversified production systems.

Cryosphere. Models project that between one-third and onehalf of existing mountain glacier mass could disappear over the next 100 years. The reduced extent of glaciers and depth of snow cover also would affect the seasonal distribution of river flow and water supply for hydroelectric generation and agriculture. Anticipated hydrological changes and reductions in the areal extent and depth of permafrost could lead to large-scale damage to infrastructure, an additional flux of CO2 into the atmosphere, and changes in processes that contribute to the flux of methane (CH) into the atmosphere. Reduced sea-ice extent and thickness would increase the seasonal duration of navigation on rivers and in coastal areas that are presently affected by seasonal ice cover, and may increase navigability in the Arctic Ocean. Little change in the extent of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected over the next 50-100 years.

reproduce, and reestablish themselves. For mid-latitude regions, a global average warming of 1-3.5°C over the next 100 years would be equivalent to a poleward shift of the present isotherms by approximately 150-550 km or an altitude shift of about 150-550 m; in low latitudes, temperatures would generally be increased to higher levels than now exist. This compares to past tree species migration rates that are believed to be on the order of 4-200 km per century. Therefore, the species composition of forests is likely to change; entire forest types may disappear, while new assemblages of species, hence new ecosystems, may be established. Figure 2 depicts potential distribution of biomes under current and a doubled equivalent-CO2 climate. Although net primary productivity could increase, the standing biomass of forests may not because of more frequent outbreaks and extended ranges of pests and pathogens, and increasing frequency and intensity of fires. Large amounts of carbon could be released into the atmosphere during transitions from one forest type to another because the rate at which carbon can be lost during times of high forest mortality is greater than the rate at which it can be gained through growth to maturity.

Rangelands. In tropical rangelands, mean temperature increases should not lead to major alterations in productivity and

Mountain Regions. The projected decrease in the extent of mountain glaciers, permafrost, and snow cover caused by a warmer climate will affect hydrologic systems, soil stability, and related socioeconomic systems. The altitudinal distribution of vegetation is projected to shift to higher elevation; some species with climatic ranges limited to mountain tops could become extinct because of disappearance of habitat or reduced migration potential. Mountain resources such as food and fuel for indigenous populations may be disrupted in many developing countries. Recreational industries—of increasing economic importance to many regions-also are likely to be disrupted.

Lakes, Streams, and Wetlands. Inland aquatic ecosystems will be influenced by climate change through altered water temperatures, flow regimes, and water levels. In lakes and streams, warming would have the greatest biological effects at high latitudes, where biological productivity would increase, and at the low-latitude boundaries of cold- and cool-water species ranges, where extinctions would be greatest. Warming

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of larger and deeper temperate zone lakes would increase their productivity; although in some shallow lakes and in streams, warming could increase the likelihood of anoxic conditions. Increases in flow variability, particularly the frequency and duration of large floods and droughts, would tend to reduce water quality and biological productivity and habitat in streams. Water-level declines will be most severe in lakes and streams in dry evaporative drainages and in basins with small catchments. The geographical distribution of wetlands is likely to shift with changes in temperature and precipitation. There will be an impact of climate change on greenhouse gas release from non-tidal wetlands, but there is uncertainty regarding the exact effects from site to site.

Coastal Systems. Coastal systems are economically and ecologically important and are expected to vary widely in their response to changes in climate and sea level. Climate change and a rise in sea level or changes in storms or storm surges could result in the erosion of shores and associated habitat, increased salinity of estuaries and freshwater aquifers, altered tidal ranges in rivers and bays, changes in sediment and nutrient transport, a change in the pattern of chemical and microbiological contamination in coastal areas, and increased coastal flooding. Some coastal ecosystems are particularly at risk, including saltwater marshes, mangrove ecosystems, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, coral atolls, and river deltas. Changes in these ecosystems would have major negative effects on tourism, freshwater supplies, fisheries, and biodiversity. Such impacts would add to modifications in the functioning of coastal oceans and inland waters that already have resulted from pollution, physical modification, and material inputs due to human activities.

Oceans. Climate change will lead to changes in sea level, increasing it on average, and also could lead to altered ocean circulation, vertical mixing, wave climate, and reductions in sea-ice cover. As a result, nutrient availability, biological productivity, the structure and functions of marine ecosystems, and heat and carbon storage capacity may be affected, with important feedbacks to the climate system. These changes would have implications for coastal regions, fisheries, tourism and recreation, transport, off-shore structures, and communication. Paleoclimatic data and model experiments suggest that abrupt climatic changes can occur if freshwater influx from the movement and melting of sea ice or ice sheets significantly weakens global thermohaline circulation.

of runoff and the intensity of floods and droughts; however, at present, specific regional effects are uncertain. Relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation, together with the non-linear effects on evapotranspiration and soil moisture, can result in relatively large changes in runoff, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. High-latitude regions may experience increased runoff due to increased precipitation, whereas runoff may decrease at lower latitudes due to the combined effects of increased evapotranspiration and decreased precipitation. More intense rainfall would tend to increase runoff and the risk of flooding, although this would depend not only on the change in rainfall but also on catchment physical and biological characteristics. A warmer climate could decrease the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, leading to reductions in spring runoff and increases in winter runoff.

The quantity and quality of water supplies already are serious problems today in many regions, including some low-lying coastal areas, deltas, and small islands, making countries in these regions particularly vulnerable to any additional reduction in indigenous water supplies. Water availability currently falls below 1,000 m3 per person per year-a common benchmark for water scarcity-in a number of countries (e.g.. Kuwait, Jordan, Israel, Rwanda, Somalia, Algeria, Kenya) or is expected to fall below this benchmark in the next 2 to 3 decades (e.g., Libya, Egypt, South Africa, Iran, Ethiopia). In addition, a number of countries in conflict-prone areas are highly dependent on water originating outside their borders (e.g., Cambodia, Syria, Sudan, Egypt, Iraq).

The impacts of climate change will depend on the baseline condition of the water supply system and the ability of water resource managers to respond not only to climate change but also to population growth and changes in demands, technology, and economic, social, and legislative conditions. In some cases-particularly in wealthier countries with integrated water-management systems-improved management may protect water users from climate change at minimal cost; in many others, however, there could be substantial economic, social, and environmental costs, particularly in regions that already are water-limited and where there is a considerable competition among users. Experts disagree over whether water supply systems will evolve substantially enough in the future to compensate for the anticipated negative impacts of climate change on water resources and for potential increases in demand.

Options for dealing with the possible impacts of a changed climate and increased uncertainty about future supply and demand for freshwater include more efficient management of existing supplies and infrastructure; institutional arrangements to limit future demands/promote conservation; improved monitoring and forecasting systems for floods/droughts; rehabilitation of watersheds, especially in the tropics; and construction of new reservoir capacity to capture and store excess flows produced by altered patterns of snowmelt and storms.

Agriculture. Crop yields and changes in productivity due to climate change will vary considerably across regions and among localities, thus changing the patterns of production. Productivity is projected to increase in some areas and decrease in others, especially the tropics and subtropics (Table 2). However, existing studies show that on the whole global agricultural production could be maintained relative to baseline production in the face of climate change modeled by general circulation models (GCMs) at doubled equivalent-CO2 equilibrium conditions, but that regional effects would vary widely. This conclusion takes into account the beneficial effects of CO, fertilization, but does not allow for changes in agricultural pests and the possible effects of changing climatic variability.

term. The exact timing and extent of this pattern is uncertain. Climate and land-use impacts on the production of temperate forest products are expected to be relatively small. In tropical regions, the availability of forest products is projected to decline by about half for non-climatic reasons related to human activities.

Fisheries. Climate-change effects interact with those of pervasive overfishing, diminishing nursery areas, and extensive inshore and coastal pollution. Globally, marine fisheries production is expected to remain about the same; high-latitude freshwater and aquaculture production are likely to increase, assuming that natural climate variability and the structure and strength of ocean currents remain about the same. The principal impacts will be felt at the national and local levels as species mix and centers of production shift. The positive effects of climate change-such as longer growing seasons, lower natural winter mortality, and faster growth rates in higher latitudes-may be offset by negative factors such as changes in established reproductive patterns, migration routes, and ecosystem relationships.

Adaptation-such as changes in crops and crop varieties, improved water-management and irrigation systems, and changes in planting schedules and tillage practices-will be important in limiting negative effects and taking advantage of beneficial changes in climate. The extent of adaptation depends on the affordability of such measures, particularly in develop ing countries; access to know-how and technology; the rate of climate change; and biophysical constraints such as water availability, soil characteristics, and crop genetics. The incremental costs of adaptation strategies could create a serious burden for developing countries; some adaptation strategies may result in cost savings for some countries. There are significant uncertainties about the capacity of different regions to adapt successfully to projected climate change.

Livestock production may be affected by changes in grain prices and rangeland and pasture productivity. In general, analyses indicate that intensively managed livestock systems have more potential for adaptation than crop systems. This may not be the case in pastoral systems, where the rate of technology adoption is slow and changes in technology are viewed as risky.

Forest Products. Global wood supplies during the next century may become increasingly inadequate to meet projected consumption due to both climatic and non-climatic factors. Boreal forests are likely to undergo irregular and large-scale losses of living trees because of the impacts of projected climate change. Such losses could initially generate additional wood supply from salvage harvests, but could severely reduce standing stocks and wood-product availability over the long

Human Infrastructure

Climate change and resulting sea-level rise can have a number of negative impacts on energy, industry, and transportation infrastructure; human settlements; the property insurance industry; tourism; and cultural systems and values.

In general, the sensitivity of the energy, industry, and transportation sectors is relatively low compared to that of agricultural or natural ecosystems, and the capacity for adaptation through management and normal replacement of capital is expected to be high. However, infrastructure and activities in these sectors would be susceptible to sudden changes, surprises, and increased frequency or intensity of extreme events. The subsectors and activities most sensitive to climate change include agroindustry, energy demand, production of renewable energy such as hydroelectricity and biomass, construction, some transportation activities, existing flood mitigation structures, and transportation infrastructure located in many areas, including vulnerable coastal zones and permafrost regions.

Climate change clearly will increase the vulnerability of some coastal populations to flooding and erosional land loss. Estimates put about 46 million people per year currently at risk of flooding due to storm surges. This estimate results from multiplying the total number of people currently living in areas potentially affected by ocean flooding by the probability of flooding at these locations in any year, given the present protection levels and population density. In the absence of adaptation measures, a 50-cm sea-level rise would increase this number to about 92 million; a 1-m sealevel rise would raise it to 118 million. If one incorporates anticipated population growth, the estimates increase substantially. Some small island nations and other countries will confront greater vulnerability because their existing sea and