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I want to express my appreciation for your participation in the Committee's recent hearing on Global Change modelling. Your testimony was of great value to me and to the Committee.

Enclosed, you will find some additional questions which are intended to clarify certain points raised in the hearing and develop additional information for the Committee's use. Your written responses will be included as part of the hearing record. I ask that you provide your responses by February 15. You may contact Dr. William S. Smith of my staff at 202/225-4439 if you have any questions regarding this request.

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ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS FOR THE RECORD

FOR MR. GUERRERO

1. Dr. Michaels suggested in his testimony that climate modelers have not been straightforward in disclosing the uncertainties in their models. Did the GAO find any indication that modelers have failed to appropriately disclose model uncertainties and potential weaknesses?

2. In your opinion, did the USGRP Modeling Forum fairly consider and discuss the views and criticisms of "skeptics" such as Dr. Michaels and Dr. Lindzen who participated in the forum?

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The Honorable George E. Brown, Jr.
Ranking Minority Member

Committee on Science

House of Representatives

Dear Mr. Brown:

I have enclosed our response to the two additional questions you posed in your January 18, 1996 letter pertaining to the Committee's November hearing on global climate change models. I appreciate the opportunity to be of assistance on this matter.

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Enclosure

Enclosure

Responses to Questions For the Record

1. Dr. Michaels suggested in his testimony that climate modelers have not been straightforward in disclosing the uncertainties in their models. Did the GAO find any indication that modelers have failed to appropriately disclose model uncertainties and potential weaknesses?

No. During our review of climate change models in the United States, the officials were generally quite candid about the model limitations and areas needing improvement. These shortcomings were also documented in numerous studies which they made available to us. Because of the limitations, the modelers attached levels of certainty, based on their scientific judgment, to various projected outcomes (e.g., global temperature increase and sea level rise) when they published the results of their Modeling Forum. We did not examine models from other countries as part of our review and therefore cannot comment on the extent to which uncertainties have been disclosed from such models.

2. In your opinion, did the USGRP Modeling Forum fairly consider and discuss the views and criticisms of "skeptics" such as Dr. Michaels and Dr. Lindzen who participated in the forum?

The USGCRP purposely invited Dr. Michaels and Dr. Lindzen to the Modeling Forum because they were known to be skeptical concerning global warming and the general interpretation of results from climate change models made by other scientists. GAO staff who were present at the Forum observed an open exchange and consideration of views and ideas from all participants although full agreement was not reached on all issues. As a result, the published account of the Forum could be best described as representing the consensus view of the majority of the scientists present.

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I want to express my appreciation for your participation in the Committee's recent bearing on Global Change modelling. Your testimony was of great value to me and to the Committee.

Enclosed, you will find some additional questions which are intended to clarify certain points raised in the hearing and develop additional information for the Committee's use. Your written responses will be included as part of the hearing record. I ask that you provide your responses by February 15. You may contact Dr. William S. Smith of my staff at 202/225-4439 if you have any questions regarding this request.

Once again, thank you for your assistance.

Sincerely,

GEORGE B. FROWN, JR.
Ranking Democratic Member

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