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REVIEW OF
TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS

Energy and Environmental Analysis, IDs (CEA), under contract w Oak Ridge National Laboratory, had developed a forecast of technology penetrations in automobiles for model year 1995 in a study for the DOE conducted in 1989, and summarized in a report to DOE endtled "Domestic Mamfacturer's Fuel Economy Capability to 2000! (Decembar, 1989). The tables showing the aggregate projection for all threo domestic Manufacturers for modal yeus 1995 aré attached, wad these tables received considerable attention in the context of the wen'ongoing debates regarding changes to the CAFE regulations.

EEA had forecast that domestic manufacturers would attain 28.0 MPG in 1995 in the "product plan" case, which is the case to be referenced as no changes to CAFE regulations occurred in the loterviewing years. The forecast was prepared under an assumed fuel price for 1995 of approximately $1.40 per gallon la 1995 dollars, while actual prices we in the $1,15 range. According to the DOT, the mid-year estimate of the domestic manufacturers CAFE is 27.3 MPG, which is 0.5 MPG lower than the CAFE estimate by EEA la 1989.

A detailed review of the technology penetrations estimated for 1995 to those forecast by EEA revealed that EEA's forecasts were generally quite close to the actual 1995 penetrations. Forecast penetration of front wheel drive, 4-speed automatic transmissions, torque converter lock-up, and electronic transmission control are with 2. percent of the 1995 actuals. EEA overestimated the penctradon of overhead cam (OHC) engines and roller cam followers by about 10 percent. However, GM has improved their OHV

engines to such an extent that these engines are essentially equivalent to the OHC engines. EEA underestimated the penetration of multipoint fuel injection by over 30 percent, as tbrotte-body systems have been pbased out by muldpoint almost completely, 4-valve per cylinder engine penetration was accurately estimated by EEA, but the accompanying engino downsizing to maintain constant performance did not occur; instead, there are several models for 4-valve V-8 engines that provide 250 to 300 HP, an event not forecast by EEA

BEA did not forecast any weight reduction in the 1989-1995 time frame, but also did not forecast weight increases that have occurred recently. Most new models have significant improvements to body stiftreu in bending and wrsion, and as a result, weigh 100 to 150 lbs more than their older counterparts. Examples include the Chrysler Cirrus/Stratus, Ford Contour/Mystique and GM LeSabre/Olds 88. Indeed, the only vehicle which showed significant weight reduction in this time frame is the Chrysler Neon

The technology based ostimates of fuel economy benefit are quite close to the actual achieved levels, to within 1.5 percent. The weight increases associated with body stiffness improvements are the major reason for the difference between EFA estimates and actual 1995 CAFE, while performance and sales mix estimation error are smaller reasons. A preliminary estimate suggests that performance increase caused a 0.7 MPG loss rather than 0.6 forecast, while sales mix shifts caused a 1.5 MPPG loss, rather than the 1.4 MPG forecast. The additional 0.3 MPG loss is associated with the changes to body stiffness, for a total reduction of 0.3 MPG.

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Front Wheel Drivo
Drag Reduction
4-speed Automado Trans
Torque Converter

Lock-up
Electronic Transmissdon

Control
Accessory Improvements
Lubricant/Tire

Improvements
Engine Improvements
• Advanced Pusbrod (AOHV
. O'rhd Cam (Over AOHV)
• Roller Cam Followers
· Low Friction

Pistons Rings . Throttle Body FI

Multi-point FI

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(over throttle body)
4 valves per cylinder engine
. 4 cyl replacing 6
.6 cyl replacing 8"
Total F/E Benefit (%)

8.0
8.0

18
12

18 12

1:44 -..0.96

15.66%

Number in parenthesis for advanced pushrod indicates 45 percent of pusbrod engines replaced by OHC engines. NM: Not meaningful

Drag reduction for large/luxiry cars from Co - 0.42 baseline.

1987 distribudon: 20.5% V-8, 29.5% V-6, 50% 4 cylinder.

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