1999 Annual Performance Goals Reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 40 million metric ton carbon equivalent (MMTCE) per year through partnerships with businesses, schools, state and local governments, and other organizations. Improve national air quality through reductions in criteria air pollutants, including annual reductions of over 90,000 tons of nitrogen oxides (NOx), a major contributor to ground-level ozone. Reduce U.S. energy consumption by over 45 billion kilowatt hours per year, including annual energy bill savings to consumers and businesses of over $3 billion. Encourage more widespread adoption of low greenhouse gas emitting technologies. Work with representatives of companies and industries interested in developing roadmaps of actions in the public and private sectors that can lead to improvements in energy use and reductions in GHG emissions. Conduct bilateral dialogues with 10-12 key developing countries to bring them toward meaningful participation under the Kyoto protocol. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions internationally. Advance the understanding and communicate the risks of climate change by working with state constituencies to assess economic and environmental impacts, develop strategies for reducing vulnerabilities, build the infrastructure to overcome existing impediments to mitigation, and implement technology-based options. Guide the development of the rules and guidelines to operationalize emissions trading, the Clean Development Mechanism, joint implementation, and early reduction credits. Assess greenhouse gas implications of major sector-based policies (e.g., utility deregulation, subsidy removal, revenue recycling, land use policy). Assess economic and technological advances to evaluate and establish domestic policies and measures to meet U.S. obligations under the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the December 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Demonstrate that an American family car can attain over 60 miles per gallon (MPG) on the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) without loss in utility, safely, and emissions control performance. Begin process to optimize prototype vehicle and to apply knowledge gained through PNGV program to trucks. Research Develop reports on problem formulation for ecosystem services sector assessment and on the use of climate change indicators. 1997 Submission of the United States of America Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The results of this integrated analysis combined with a review of actual emission trends to date suggest that CCAP programs can be effective in reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. CCAP actions reduce 4 percent of baseline emissions in 2000, 8 percent in 2010, and 10 percent in 2020. However, despite these substantial contributions, emissions will significantly exceed their 1990 levels in the year 2000. U.S. net greenhouse gas emissions in The updated "point estimate" for Under current funding levels, Due to estimated energy savings ini- If funding were higher, as originally The emission projections presented here include the full effect of the "foundation" actions contained in the earlier 1993 CCAP. The three foundation actions scored are: Climate Challenge, Climate Wise Companies, and State and Local Outreach. Emission reduction estimates are sensitive to the order in which foundation actions and other CCAP programs are counted. If reductions resulting from the activities of program participants that can be reflected in other actions or in the baseline are excluded, the estimated "incremental" emission reductions associated with the foundations are estimated to provide emission reductions of 11 MMTCE in 2000, 10 MMTCE in 2010, and 12 MMTCE by 2020. However, the full emission reduction contribution of these programs, which includes all reductions achieved through the activities of program participants, is substantially larger. Assessing Current Estimates of As in the 1993 CCAP, an analytical team was established composed of members from all relevant federal agencies. The team was charged with reevaluating all 1993 CCAP actions and to include new actions as appropriate. A set of inputs was developed so that the modeling effort could be undertaken to account for potential overlap and synergistic effects among actions. Two modeling scenarios were created: a Baseline scenario and an Action Plan scenario. The Baseline scenario reflects expectations of private and public-sector behavior based on legislation and federal programs already in effect. The Action Plan scenario combines all the policies contained in the baseline with the actions contained in the 1993 CCAP, as well as new actions developed since the publication of the original CCAP. The projections contained in this section are derived from a set of specific assumptions about markets, technologies, and resources, such as growth rates in the gross domestic product (GDP) and world oil prices. Four main types of assumptions underlie the projections: Economic factors, including CDP ■ Energy resources, including proven Technology factors, which include The Integrated Dynamic Energy Analysis Simulation (IDEAS) model was used as a tool for the integrated analysis of the energyrelated actions. Table 4-3 presents a partial list of some of the key factors, containing both input assumptions and model results. This model has elements of both top-down and bottom-up modeling. The macroeconomic effects are combined with microeconomic, technology-specific representations energy-service methods that link energy supply and demand through equilibrium market prices. Other sectors and gases were estimated independently. Comparison of 1993 CCAP and 1997 CAR Greenhouse Gas Emissions of A comparison of the 1993 CCAP and the 1997 CAR reveals significant differences between the two sets of projections. These differences are caused by many factors, including the adoption of international accounting standards, the inclusion of newly identified greenhouse gases, updated global warming potential factors used to determine carbon-equivalent emissions, revised estimates of historical emissions, changes in baseline assumptions of emis 4 Mitigating Climate Change☐ 113 |