Q23. On page 14 of your written testimony you state the following: A23. “Climate change is likely to extend the geographic ranges and increase the rates of transmission of disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes, which can increase the populations exposed to diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever. Globally, the population exposed to malaria could increase by one-third. There could be 50-80 million additional malaria cases per year, assuming no change in public health protection.” Please document these statements. Chapter 18 ("Human Population Health") of the 1995 IPCC document Climate Change 1995 - Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate change: Scientific-Technical Analyses provides an up-to-date summary of what is known on the potential human health impacts of climate change. The overall conclusion of this chapter is that most of the impacts would be adverse. Some would occur via direct pathways (e.g., deaths from heat waves and extreme weather events), while others would occur indirectly (e.g., due to changes in the range of vectorborne diseases. Populations with different levels of natural, technical, and social resources would differ in their vulnerability to climate-induced health impacts. Crowding, food insecurity, local environmental degradation, and disturbed ecosystems already exist in many developing countries and would all increase vulnerability. A copy of this chapter of the document was attached in response to Q21 above. Q24. On page 14 of your written testimony you state the following: “Climate change can reduce air quality and increase levels of air borne pollen and spores, which exacerbate respiratory disease, asthma, and allergic disorders." Please document these statements. A24. Research has shown that ground level ozone, the primary constituent of smog, is affected by weather and climate, and that there is a strong positive relationship between ozone concentrations and temperatures (see The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, IPCC, 1998, pages 310-311, attached). The potential effects of climate change on the production of plant allergens are also discussed in that report. Other sources on the relationship between weather and air quality include: Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution, (National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC. Dec 1991); National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1995 (EPA 454/R-96-005); The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Report to Congress, Appendix F: Air Quality (EPA-230-05-89 tropospheric ozone concentrations" (paper presented at the American Waste Management Association Specialty Conference: Tropospheric Ozone and the Environment II, November 1991); “Photochemical modeling analysis under global warming conditions" (AWMA paper No. 95-WP74B.02, presented at the AWMA annual meeting, San Antonio, 1995); “The effects of climate change” in Global Climate Change Linkages: Acid Rain, Air Quality, and Stratospheric Ozone (ed. J. C. White. New York: Elsevier. 1989); and “Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change," Atmospheric Environment 23:519-532. Impacts on Water Resources Q25. On page 14 of your written testimony you also state the following: "Water Resources: Among the most fundamental effects of climate change is an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Changes in precipitation, and increased evaporation and transpiration due to higher temperatures, can be expected to reduce water runoff, affecting the quantity and quality of water supplies for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation, hydropower generation, navigation, stream ecosystems and water based recreation. These effects will vary region by region. Increased variability in the hydrologic cycle is expected to result in more severe droughts and/or floods in some places. Impacts and mitigation expenses for such events are significant; damage estimates from the Mississippi flood of 1993 range from $10 billion to $20 billion. Areas of greatest vulnerability are those where water supplies and quality are already problems, such as arid and semi-arid regions of the world and some low lying coastal areas, deltas and small islands. Climate change would likely add to the stress in several U.S. river basins, such as the Great Basin, California, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas Gulf, Rio Grande, and Lower Colorado. • The Colorado River Basin would suffer decreased summer runoff, coinciding with peak demand for irrigation, unless precipitation also increases substantially. Reductions in runoff of up to 25 percent in the basin are projected under some scenarios. Water scarcity in Middle Eastern and African countries also is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Countries that are highly dependent on water originating in areas outside their borders include Syria, Sudan, Egypt and Iraq." A25. Chapter 14 of the document Climate Change 1995 – Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses provides a recent evaluation of potential climate change impacts to water resources. Its principal conclusions are that: • Most regional water resources systems in the 21st century, particularly in developing countries, will become increasingly stressed due to higher demand to meet the needs of growing populations and economies and protect ecosystems. Arid and semi-arid watersheds and river basins are the most sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. Water demand for irrigated agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, • Current models cannot provide watershed-specific information to allow robust estimates regarding changes in water availability. The primary components for increasing flexibility of water resources systems to meet increasing uncertainties due to climate change are water demand management and institutional adaptation. • Increased streamflow regulation and water management regimes may be necessary to enable water systems to meet their goals. Isolated single reservoirs are less adaptable to climate change than integrated multiple-reservoir systems. A copy of this chapter of the document is attached. 14 Water Resources Management ZDZISŁAW KACZMAREK, POLAND Principal Lead Authors: N.W. Arnell, UK; E.Z. Stakhiv, USA Lead Authors: K. Hanaki, Japan; G.M. Mailu, Kenya; L. Somlyódy, Hungary; K. Strzepek, USA Contributing Authors: A.J. Askew, Switzerland; F. Bultot, Belgium; J.Kindler, USA; Z. Kundzewicz, |