We assume that the request for documentation refers only to the assertions about climate change. The best documentation for the fact that Florida has low elevations would be the USGS topographic maps, which are available from USGS. The point that higher sea level is expected to result in greater storm surges has been well established since Barth and Titus (1984) (“Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise", Van Nostrand Reinhold). IPCC (1995) indicated that we do not yet know whether hurricane intensity will also strengthen. The 100-1000 foot erosion of Florida beaches is from the seminal paper by Per Bruun (1962) which first introduced what is now called "the Bruun Rule." Note, however, that studies cited in Titus et al, 1991 (Coastal Management, Volume 19, pages 171-204) found that erosion of 50-400 feet would be more typical along sandy beaches. On the other hand, shores could retreat a few miles in some wetland areas of Louisiana and Florida. (For a map of South Florida inundation, see http://www.erols.com/ dickpark/SLAMM.htm.) Q19. On pages 12 and 13 of your written testimony you state the following: "Southwest: Rapid population growth in this arid or semi-arid region make the Southwest extremely vulnerable to water supply problems that are likely to worsen under climate change. The region is naturally subject to large climate fluctuations, which have produced fairly robust adaptation mechanisms in ranching and agriculture. The native flora and fauna are also well adapted to life in this harsh and dry environment. Surface water supplies are insufficient; forcing reliance on groundwater, use of which already exceeds recharge and is leading to subsidence in many areas. Climate change will pose serious challenges and is likely to result in significant impacts to the region's traditional economic sectors as well as tourism, development, and retail sectors that now make up much of the region's economy. Expected conditions include more extremely hot days, fewer cool days, and decreased winter precipitation. Alteration of the region's hydrologic cycle would affect quantity and quality of the water supply, with major implications for continued development in the region. Significant changes in vegetation are also predicted, with Gambel oak, Piñon pine, and Douglas fir largely disappearing from the region. Saguaro would die off in its current range, but might find a new home further east and at higher elevations." Please document these statements. A19. As with the Alaska example (Q16), this example of regional vulnerability to climate change is based on the discussions from a workshop on the impacts of climate change. The Final Workshop Report has not yet been completed. The The Southwest is a semi-arid region currently vulnerable to water supply problems (Sellers and Hill 1974; Stromberg et al. 1996; Glennon and Maddock 1994). Population growth will further stress the limited water situation (Lord et al. 1991). Climate change is expected to worsen the situation in the region (Gleick et al. 1995; Morrison et al. 1996). Climate change and droughts will impact the region's economic sectors (Brown 1996; FAO 1996; Fohn 1996; NOAA report 1996). Expected conditions for the region include more hot days, and decreased winter precipitation (VEMAP, 1995). Significant changes in vegetation distribution are also likely (Thompson 1988; Thompson et al. 1998). the challenge of 1996. Texas agriculture suffers Brown, L. 1996. Rebuilding world grain stocks Glennon, R.J. and T. Maddock III. 1994. In search of subflow: Arizona's futile effort to separate groundwater from surface water. Arizona Lay Review 36(3):567-610. Lord, W.B. et al. 1991. A study of the water resources of the San Pedro Basin and options for efficient and equitable water management. Tucson, AZ: Water Resources Research Center, The University of Arizona. Morrison, J.I., S.L. Postel, and P.H. Gleick. 1996. The sustainable use of water in the Lower Colorado River Basin. Pacific Institute for Studies in Development Environment and Security, Oakland, CA. NOAA, June 1996. Special climate summary 96/2: Drought in the Southern Plains and the Southwest. June 1996. Sellers, W.D. and R.H. Hill, eds. 1974. Arizona Climate, 1931-1972. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press. Stromberg, J., R. Tiller, and B. Richter. 1996. Effects of groundwater decline on riparian vegetation of semiarid regions: The San Pedro, Arizona. Ecological Applications. Thompson, R.S., 1988, Western North America--vegetation dynamics in the western United States: modes of response to climatic fluctuations. p. 415-458, in B. Huntley and T. Webb III (eds.) Vegetation History, Handbook of Vegetation Science Volume 7: Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 803 p. Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., and Bartlein, P.J., in preparation: Atlas of Vegetation-Climate Relationships in North America. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper. VEMAP Members (J.M. Melillo, J. Borchers, J. Chaney, H. Fisher, S. Fox, A. Haxeltine, A. Janetos, D.W. Kicklighter, T.G.F. Kittel, A.D. McGuire, R. McKeown, R. Neilson, R. Nemani, D.S. Ojima, T. Painter, Y. Pan, W.J. Parton, L. Schimel, S. Sitch, T. Smith, I. Woodward). 1995. Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9(4): 407-437. Q20. On page 13 of your written testimony you state the following: A20. "New England: New England's economy is diverse, and many aspects are indirectly dependent on climate. Its natural areas are prized, and its fall foliage draws visitors from all over the world. The region is vulnerable to drought and severe storms, which modify its vegetation and impact production of forest and fisheries products. Warmer, drier climate could reduce ski tourism and shift optimal climatic conditions north into Canada for the tree species prized for their fall foliage and maple syrup. Coastal areas are likely to be affected by intensifying storms, sea level rise, and reduced freshwater input to estuaries. Air quality, already poor in the region's major urban areas, could decline even further as hot, humid weather increases, leading to increased incidences of respiratory illness." Please document these statements. As with the Alaska example (Q16), this example of regional vulnerability to climate change is based on the discussions from a workshop on the impacts of climate change. The Final Workshop Report has not yet been completed. The workshop on New England was held in Durham, New Hampshire, September 3-5, 1997. New England's natural resources draw many tourists to the region annually (Goss 1995; DOI and DOC reports). Currently severe storms modify the region's vegetation (Foster et al 1997; Foster and Boose 1992). Warmer and drier conditions would lead to shifts in forest species throughout New England (Davis and Zabinski, 1992). Coastal areas are likely to be affected by intensified storms and sea level rise (Smith and Tirpak 1989). Declines in air quality may lead to increased respiratory illnesses (Smith and Tirpak 1989). Davis, M.B. and C. Zabinski. 1992. Changes in geographical range resulting from Foster, D. R., J. D. Aber, J. M. Melillo, R. Bowden and F. Bazzaz. 1997. Foster, D. R. and E. Boose. 1992a. Patterns of forest damage resulting from Goss, L.E. 1995. Fiscal Year 1994 Travel economics report, The Institute for Smith, J.B. and D. Tirpak, eds. 1989. The potential effects of global climate Health Effects Q21. On page 13 of your written testimony you also state the following: "Health Effects: According to the World Health Organization, the vulnerability of human populations to climate change varies across populations depending on environmental circumstances, social resources, and preexisting health status. In general, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries because of their limited capital and their greater dependence on natural resources. Climate change increases the risk of heat-related mortality and the potential for the spread of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever, and encephalitis, and non-vector borne diseases such as cholera and salmonellosis. The incidence of infectious diseases, which are still the world's leading cause of fatalities, may also increase.” Please document these statements. A21. Increases in the risk of heat related mortality are documented in Climate Change and Human Health, A.J. McMichael, A. Haines, R. Slooff and S. Kovats editors, World Health Organization, Geneva, 1996, pages 55-62, and in Climate Change 1995 - Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific Technical Analyses, Chapter 18 (attached). See also the study requested in Q22. The potential spread of vector borne diseases and non-vector borne diseases is documented in the WHO report. See in particular Chapter 4, Effects on biological disease agents. That chapter discusses research on the likelihood of changes in the geographic distributions of vector borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fevers, and encephalitis; changes in transmission potential due to changes in the life-cycle dynamics of vectors and infectious parasites; and changes in the incidence of water and food borne infectious diseases such as cholera and salmonellosis. Research on these topics is also summarized in the IPCC Report 18 Human Population Health ANTHONY J. McMICHAEL, AUSTRALIA/UK Principal Lead Authors: M. Ando, Japan; R. Carcavallo, Argentina; P. Epstein, USA; A. Haines, UK; G. Jendritzky, Germany; L. Kalkstein, USA; R. Odongo, Kenya; J. Patz, USA; W. Piver, USA Contributing Authors: R. Anderson, UK; S. Curto de Casas, Argentina; I. Galindez Giron, Venezuela; S. Kovats, UK; W.J.M. Martens, The Netherlands; D. Mills, USA; A.R. Moreno, Mexico; W. Reisen, USA; R. Slooff, WHO; D. Waltner-Toews, Canada; A. Woodward, New Zealand |