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RESPECT

Objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Q12. As you note on page 8 of your testimony, the Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change states that "The ultimate objective of this Convention... is to achieve... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

Q12.1 How is this level to be determined?

A12.1. There is no prescribed method for determining the stabilization level of greenhouse gas concentrations that would avoid dangerous "anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” However, it is clear that research and scientific information must inform our efforts to establish a stabilization target, but they alone cannot determine what levels would be "dangerous." Your question does not cite several additional points in Article 2, which state that stabilization should be achieved within a timeframe that allows ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and ensures that food production is not threatened. Both points emphasize the importance of the rate of change, as well as the ultimate concentration of greenhouse gases. If temperature changes too quickly, we may lose the ability to cope or adapt. Concerns about rate of change make early action more important. Subjective judgments must also be made by society regarding what attributes of the current climate are most important to preserve, and what levels of risk society is willing to take. These collective value judgments must be reached in our country through open political debate and discussion.

Once these attributes have been identified, scientific information must play a critical role by objectively describing the ways in which different concentrations of greenhouse gases, and hence different rates and magnitudes of climate change, would affect the values that have been collectively agreed are important to protect. To some degree, science can describe and quantify the ways in which many environmental systems (e.g., forests, grasslands, mountain ecosystems, and wetlands) and socioeconomic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources, insurance/ financial services, and human health) will be affected when exposed to different rates and magnitudes of climate change. Perhaps we can also identify thresholds of climate change, which if exceeded, would disrupt environmental systems and render them unable to provide needed environmental goods and services. This scientific information is critical to determining whether the climate change associated with different

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Given the long time scales involved in reversing damage decades to centuries -- the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) clearly and, in my view, appropriately, notes that taking precautions is important, because some of the consequences we face are irreversible. Article 3 of the FCCC states that:

"The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost."

Different countries clearly have identified different stabilization levels, which, according to their own criteria, meet the objectives of the FCCC. This leads to the need for international negotiations to establish agreement on a common greenhouse gas level that should not be exceeded. Clearly, such international negotiation is a political process, and its outcome cannot be determined through a scientific research, although again, scientific research and information are a critical component of the process.

Q12.2 What is the scientific justification for setting greenhouse-gas stabilization at this level?

A12.2 As stated above, research and scientific information are a central component of the process of determining what the appropriate stabilization level should be. We have not yet determined a long-term stabilization target. We will take the precautions described in the FCCC into account when considering such a target.

Q12.3 How is the phrase “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" defined?

A12.3 There is no internationally agreed definition of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The FCCC does not itself define "dangerous anthropogenic interference," nor does it specify a level of greenhouse gas concentrations that would avoid such interference. The FCCC does spell out a timeframe in which an acceptable level should be reached. The objective of the FCCC (Article 2) states that “Such a level should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable

Q12.4 Will any of the emission reduction proposals currently under consideration achieve this goal of stabilization?

A12.4 The emissions reduction targets in the Kyoto Protocol will not, alone, achieve the goal of stabilization of the atmosphere, but the Kyoto Protocol constitutes an important first step in the process of beginning to reduce the growth in emissions by signaling to decision-makers in the private and public sectors the need to increase energy efficiency and shift to low carbon energy forms. Without these early steps, eventual reductions may be both more difficult and expensive to attain, as enterprises will continue to invest in inefficient capital equipment that will then need to be retired prematurely to meet future emissions reductions targets. Indeed, with unrestrained growth in emissions over the next decades, it will be impossible to reach low stabilization targets in the future, should these be determined to be necessary. And, of course, meeting a low stabilization target will require the meaningful participation of developing countries.

Impacts on Global Agricultural Activity

Q13. On page 9 of your written testimony you state that “a series of projections that includes carbon dioxide increases, temperature change, and precipitation changes now indicate that while there might be no “net” effect on global agricultural productivity, significant regional dislocations are expected, with the poorest countries experiencing the greatest losses.”

Please document this statement.

A13. In a 1995 document entitled As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Martin Parry, and Gunther Fisher reported on a study by 18 agricultural scientists that estimated the potential change in crop yield under three different climate change scenarios. The crops modeled were wheat, rice, and maize, which together account for 85 percent of world cereal exports, and soybean, which accounts for about 67 percent of world trade in protein cake equivalent. The key findings of this study were that:

"Assuming a minor level of farm-level adaptation (e.g., minor shifts in planting dates and minor changes in crop variety), the net effect of climate change would be to reduce global cereal production by up to 5 percent. This modest reduction could be largely overcome by more major forms of adaptation, such as the installation of irrigation.

Climate change would increase the disparities between developed and developing countries. Production in the developed world may well benefit from climate change, whereas production in developing nations may decline. Adaptation at the farm level would do little to reduce the disparities, with the

Cereal prices and thus the population at risk of hunger in developing countries could increase despite adaptation. Even a high level of farmer adaptation in the agricultural sector would not entirely prevent such adverse effects."

A copy of the chapter (Chapter 2) in which these study results were reported is attached.

In addition, Chapter 13 of the IPCC document Climate Change 1995 – Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses reports that crop yield and productivity changes will vary considerably across regions. Lower latitude and lower income countries will be more negatively affected. Low income populations depending on isolated agricultural systems, particularly dryland systems in semi-arid and arid regions, are particularly vulnerable to hunger and severe hardship. A copy of this chapter of the document is attached.