late in 1999 in that regard. And I would say, Mr. Chairman, that we really need a significant increase in research, development, and the deployment of clean energy technologies. And I'll leave that to my colleague, Dr. Moniz, to address.

So, I think we have to remember this, Mr. Chairman, businessas-usual projections already assume steady improvements toward lower carbon intensiveness in our economy. They're already in there. We already assume a significant improvement in that efficiency year by year. But maintaining that kind of innovation is not going to be enough. We have to amplify it, or to accelerate that.

The second thing is-in my conclusions is-that the longer we have to transform our energy system to a less carbon intensive one, the easier it is going to be. That's a fundamental point that is both economic and technological. The longer-as we pace our way into this business, the longer-we have to effect this action, the less traumatic it is going to be. And, I think, if you look at the least cost path to get us to a point that is deemed an appropriate target for us, it means that we have to begin this action, not in the middle of the next century, but by about 2015. And, I think it is figure 3 of my testimony, indicates the reasons for that.

Mr. Chairman, I will stop my remarks at this point. I thank you for inviting me, and I'd be happy to take questions later.

[Dr. Gibbons' prepared statement and biography follow:]

TESTIMONY OF

JOHN H. GIBBONS

ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

BEFORE THE

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE

UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

HEARING ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
FEBRUARY 12, 1998

Introduction

Thank you for providing the opportunity to talk to you today about the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) current and planned activities. The best way to describe how these activities relate to the Kyoto Protocol is to describe the current state of scientific knowledge of climate change, a significant portion of which is the product of our Nation's strong support for the USGCRP since its inception.

The USGCRP began as a Presidential Initiative in 1989, and was codified by the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The program has been strongly backed by every Administration and Congress since its inception. The FY 1999 Budget Request demonstrates President Clinton's ongoing commitment to the program, with an overall request of approximately $1.86 billion dollars. The President and the Vice President believe that global change research is one of the foundations of a sustainable future. The Administration looks forward to working with the Congress to carry on this bipartisan tradition of support for sound science.

I want to emphasize that the planning of the USGCRP budget and research programs for this year, or any year, were not directly impacted by the Kyoto negotiations. The USGCRP is not a policy-driven program, but rather is driven by critical science questions and the need to develop a long term understanding of the scientific information that is of most relevance to U.S. policy makers. The results obtained through the sustained USGCRP research effort over the past decade have been very helpful in U.S. government climate change policy deliberations. As we look ahead to the next decade of global change research, it is apparent that much of the USGCRP research effort is addressing questions of ecological impacts and rates of change, both of which are relevant to the decisions the world must make about long term emissions trajectories beyond 2010.

The USGCRP, along with the global change research efforts supported by other countries such as Japan and the European nations, has provided the knowledge base for national and international decision making on climate change issues, both by providing research results directly to national governments and to the international process of the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC draws upon the best science from around the world to produce state-of-the-art syntheses of information required by policy makers. The IPCC involves more than 2000 scientists from more than 50 countries. The IPCC process has provided compelling evidence of changes in atmospheric composition that are occurring now, the future changes we can expect if we don't take action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and the implications of these changes for socio-economic and ecological systems.

Over the past decade, a series of global environmental changes have been documented in increasing detail. We have demonstrated that climate change, the loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, alteration of the land surface, and changes in the nitrogen balance of the Earth's soils and waters are all occurring and changing the environment on a global-scale. We have also established beyond reasonable doubt that human activities are among, and in some cases are the dominant, driving forces of such change. We recognize that these changes are interrelated, and that they form a suite of multiple stresses affecting people and the Earth's ecosystems.

The USGCRP addresses the broad suite of global change issues. The USGCRP has four priority areas: short term climate variability -- such as El Niño; climate change over decades to centuries; changes in atmospheric chemistry; and changes in land cover and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Components of these four research priorities are directly relevant to increasing our understanding of climate change and its effects. The USGCRP has also made and continues to make a very large investment in the creation of new observing and data management systems (primarily in the NASA Earth Science Program) that hold the promise of achieving a new level of understanding of the Earth system and the relationships of its components. I have included attachments that summarize the USGCRP's major achievements in FY1997 and the level of investment proposed for each participating agency for FY1999 (attachments).

As I will describe below, the scientific evidence that climate change is occurring, and that human activities are playing a significant role in causing such change, is clear and compelling. Without the USGCRP and its companion programs in other nations, we would not have the objective information we need to recognize and deal with this issue. This evidence has led the nations of the world to begin working together in the Framework Convention on Climate Change to mitigate the effects of climate disruption. The United States has led the world in addressing this global environmental issue by supporting the scientific research that continues to increase our understanding of climate change and its effects, by negotiating an agreement at the Third Conference of Parties to the Framework Convention, in Kyoto, Japan. This Convention features market mechanisms and flexibility to assure cost effective mitigation, and the development of the clean energy technologies that will benefit the economy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. President Clinton's leadership has been instrumental to U.S. achievements in each of these areas. The President's 1999 budget request, which strongly supports climate change research and technology development and deployment, demonstrates the ongoing commitment of the Administration to confront the challenge of climate disruption.

The Science of Climate Change

We've known for about a century that a natural greenhouse effect keeps the Earth's temperature about 60 degrees F warmer than it otherwise would be. Water vapor, CO,, and other trace gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), trap heat, and keep it from being re-radiated from the Earth back to space. Without this natural warming effect, life as we know it would not be possible.

The problem is that over the past century, human activities have added to the natural greenhouse effect by releasing enormous quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These emissions have led to a steady increase in the atmospheric concentrations of such gases.

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by about 30 percent. Methane concentration has more than doubled.

Nitrous oxide concentration has risen by 15 percent.

The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) for energy is the primary source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Emissions of other greenhouse gases from a variety of industrial and agricultural processes effectively add about 20 percent to the U.S. CO2 total. On a global scale, burning of fossil fuels now releases about 6 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year. Changing land use patterns, such as agriculture and deforestation, also contributes a significant share, amounting to about another 1-2 billion metric tons per year. The rate at which atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are now increasing is unprecedented.

The increased concentrations of greenhouse gases trap more heat at the Earth's surface. This means that there is more energy available to the climate system. This extra energy can do two things. It can increase the temperature of the atmosphere, which increases the atmosphere's water holding capacity. Or, where water is available, the heat energy can evaporate water, which is, in fact, where much of the extra energy goes. The result is that the water content of the atmosphere is also increased. The increased water vapor in the atmosphere, in general, not only enhances the greenhouse effect but also produces enhanced amounts and rates of precipitation. In addition, because storms feed on energy and atmospheric moisture, storm duration and size is increased. On the ground, there is likely to be increased runoff and flooding. All of this is based on simple physics.

So, what does this all mean? Here is some of what we know:

Without changing the way we operate, the level of emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to increase, resulting in a variety of global, regional and local effects.

Global average temperature will rise, although there will be considerable variation in how much temperature changes in specific regions.

The Earth's water cycle will intensify, with an overall increase in evaporation and transpiration (water loss from plants), as well as precipitation -- both rain and snow. More precipitation is likely to occur in "extreme" downpours, where large amounts of rain fall in a short period. Some areas will be threatened by increased flooding, while others will suffer through an increased incidence of drought, as continental interiors become warmer and drier.

Over time, sea level will rise, due primarily to the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting and retreating of glaciers.

It is very important for you to understand that the changes I am discussing are already taking place. The Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes a series of changes that have already been observed:

Over the last century, the global mean (average) surface temperature increased by about 0.5 -1° F.

Over the same period, global mean sea level has already risen 4 to 10 inches, and further rise is inevitable.

Mountain glaciers have retreated worldwide this century.

The surface temperature this century is as warm or warmer than any century since at least 1400 AD.

When the IPCC report was written, 1995 was the warmest year on record, but new results from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that 1995 has been surpassed by 1997, and that nine of the last eleven years are among the warmest ever recorded (Figure 1). 1997 also shows up as the warmest year in data records maintained by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office and the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies, meaning that the three most comprehensive and accurate long-term surface data records all indicate continued warming of our planet.

In addition, the Earth's ecosystems may already be reacting to these changes. A paper published in the April 17, 1997 issue of Nature presented compelling evidence for significant regional ecosystem response to warming experienced during the period 1981-1991:

Over that 10 year period, high latitudes (between 45° and 70° North) sustained a longer growing season, and an advance of up to seven days in "greening" in spring and summer, These latitudes appear to be experiencing an increase of approximately 10 percent in photosynthetic activity, possibly due to the longer growing season, as well as increased CO, fertilization.

Rainfall data for the last century show that global precipitation has increased. Change can also be seen in United States precipitation trends. NOAA's Tom Karl has reviewed the records of total rainfall and extreme rainfall for the United States over the last century and reached some very interesting conclusions.