Sammartino, Frank, "Institutional Factors and the Demand for Older Workers in the Labor Market," paper presented at the workshop on work, income and retirement, Washington, D.C., March 1979. Samuelson, R. J., "Aging America-Who Will Shoulder the Growing Burdens?" National Journal, vol. 10, No. 43, October 28, 1978. Sander, Kenneth G., "The Retirement Test: Its Effect on Older Workers' Earnings," Social Security Bulletin, June 1968, vol. 31, No. 6, pp. 3-6. Schmitt, Ray, "Major Issues Facing the Private Pension System," Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Washington, January 27, 1978. Schulz, James H., "The Economics of Aging," Belmont, Calif., Wadsworth, 1976. Schulz, James H., "The Economics of Mandatory Retirement," Industrial Gerontology, winter 1974, pp. 1-10. Schwab, D. P.; and Heneman, H. G.; "Effects of Age and Experience on Productivity," Industrial Gerontology, spring 1977. 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Smith, Ralph E., "Women in the Labor Force in 1990," The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C., March 1979. Spengler, Joseph J., "Declining Population Growth: Economic Effects," in Economic Aspects of Population Change, the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, vol. 2. U.S. GPO, Washington, D.C., 1972. Spengler, Joseph J., "Declining Population Growth Revisited," Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1971. Spengler, Joseph J., "Population Aging and Security of the Aged," Atlantic Economic Journal, March 1978. Stafford, Frank, "Unemployment and Labor Force Participation of Older Workers," paper presented at the workshop on work, income and retirement, Washington, D.C., March 1979. Stone, James M., Discussion of "Funding Government Pensions: State-Local, Civil Service and Military," by Alicia H. Munnell and Ann M. 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Warlick, Jennifer, "Income Distribution, The Elderly and Public Policy." Unpublished paper, dated February 23, 1979. Wertheimer, Richard F. II; and Zedlewski, Sheila, "The Aging of America: A Portrait of the Elderly in 1990." Urban Institute Working Paper No. 1224-01, December 1978. Chapter 3 PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH ON THE INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT OF OLDER AMERICANS The purpose of this chapter is to suggest an agenda of priority research topics that constitute the most important areas where an advancement in knowledge can enhance consideration of new policies relevant to the income and employment of the aged. The research agenda is structured along the lines of the organization of policy issues set out earlier in chapter 1. The content of the agenda relates to the issues singled out in that chapter, and the specific research topics are designed to be incremental to the knowledge base cataloged in the appendix to this report and discussed in chapter 2. This chapter concerns itself solely with research areas relevant to major policy issues. Thus, research topics not directly relevant to the analysis of major policy issues and proposals are excluded from the discussion. Analyses of specific policy proposals that will be required eventually for legislative debate are not described here either. Rather, this agenda deals with the underlying research necessary to the performance of such legislative analysis. The context from which this agenda springs-i.e., the current state of the art-is discussed only briefly in this chapter, but such descriptions are available from a number of sources. I. DATA AVAILABILITY A. RELEVANT DATA BASES If a research agenda is to be of immediate value, it must be compiled within the bounds of feasibility. An agenda which does not pay heed to data availability may be useful as a guide for long-run research planning but may be nothing more than a wish list for the short run. Research issues presented in this chapter can be undertaken with the use of existing data sources or with the aid of data sets currently under development. Several general types of data are required to perform research concerning issues of retirement and employment of older Americans: (1) Demographic data such as age, sex, race, and household composition; (2) financial data such as income by source, assets by type, retirement plan coverage, vesting and benefit receipt, and savings behavior; and The following are selected descriptions of the state of the art in various research areas: Louis Esposito, "Effect of Social Security on Saving: Review of Studies Using U.S. Time Series Data," Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 41, No. 5, May 1978, pp. 9-17. Thomas A. Gustafson, "Labor Supply of the Elderly," unpublished paper, February 1979. Alicia H. Munnell, "Research on Macro Effects of Retirement Income Programs," unpublished paper, Feb. 15, 1979. James R. Storey and Gary Hendricks, "Retirement Income in an Aging Society: The Need for Better Information for Public and Private Decisions," Urban Institute paper, December 1979. The Urban Institute, "Income Adequacy and the Elderly: Priority Research Issues," Mar. 31, 1977. (3) employment data such as labor force status, occupation, wage rate, hours of work, work histories, and coverage by mandatory retirement rules. Several major data bases are available which contain some or all of the data items required in order to analyze the policy issues of interest here. In addition, several data sets currently under development provide much of the requisite data. The following sections describe the data sets (other than the regular census data collections) that are universal in nature. (Additional data files are available on both individuals and pension systems which, although narrower in scope, are useful in specific research projects.) 1. THE LONGITUDINAL RETIREMENT HISTORY SURVEY (LRHS) The LRHS is a 10-year longitudinal survey conducted by the Social Security Administration to study the attitudes, plans, resources, and activities of Americans as they pass through the usual retirement period of the life cycle. The first survey was taken in 1969 and included individuals aged 58 to 63. The panel was reinterviewed every 2 years on questions of: Labor force status, retirement and retirement plans; health; household, family and social activities; and income, assets, and debt.2 Data from the first four surveys are currently available. Numerous research projects have utilized the LRHS to examine issues relating to the retirement and employment of older Americans. 2. THE 1973 CPS-SSA EXACT MATCH FILE The exact match file is the result of a joint effort between the Bureau of the Census and the Social Security Administration. The file is an exact match of the census' March 1973 current population survey households with data from social security benefit and earnings files. The current population survey March file is an annually recurring household survey which contains questions on employment, unemployment, and income in addition to demographic questions. The social security benefit and earnings files contain data on all social security beneficiaries and earnings histories of all workers with covered employment. While the usefulness of this exact match file has somewhat diminished as the data become outdated, another file will be available soon which will match the social security earnings file with the March 1978 CPS. The exact match file has been used to examine issues surrounding social security benefit receipt. It is also a useful data base for simulating existing or proposed pension plans. 3. PENSIONS AND SAVINGS SURVEY This is an ongoing survey sponsored by the President's Commission on Pension Policy. It has been designed to permit an analysis of the effects of social security, pensions, and other retirement plans on private savings behavior. It will contain detailed data on family composition, a recent earnings history, work history, income and workrelated expenses, net worth, retirement plans, pension plan coverage, and pension assets. 2 For a more detailed description see: Bennie A. Clemmer and D. Bruce Pell, "Technical Note," Social |