ALL-VOLUNTEER ARMED FORCES:
PROGRESS, PROBLEMS, AND PROSPECTS

A Report Prepared for

The Committee on Armed Services

United States Senate

by

Martin Binkin

and

John D. Johnston

Brookings Institution*

May 1973

*The views expressed herein are those of the authors alone and should not be ascribed to the trustees, officers, or other staff members of the Brookings Institution.

(VII)

CONTENTS

Page

157

Summary

Introduction_.

1. The Transition Years..

Factors Affecting the Transition_

The Profiles of Enlisted Personnel, 1960-74_

A Successful Transition: Rationale_

Conclusion.......

2. Remaining Transition Problems: Short-Term Solutions_

Critical Skill Shortages-The "Quality" Issue_-

The Reserve Forces Problem_.

Doctor Supply Problem..

Conclusions..

3. Long-Term Prospects -

The Demand for Volunteers_

Supply of Volunteers_

4. Some Options___

To Decrease the Demand for Male Enlisted Personnel

To Increase the Supply of Male Enlisted Volunteers.

Conclusions.

5. Next Steps.

Appendix A: Supply Methodology –

ii

Appendix B: Regression Analyses of Volunteerism in Relation to Employ-

ment..

FIGURES

CHAPTER 1: THE TRANSITION YEARS

10

21

25

27

27

29

34

36

37

38

40

45

46

51

55

57

59

63

1. Draft Inductions, All Services, Fiscal Years 1960-74_

2. Active Military Manpower, All Services, Fiscal years 1960-74..

3. Total Male Enlistments and True Volunteers, All Services, Fiscal

Years 1971-74..

4. True Volunteers, Ground Combat Arms, Selected Monthly Averages,

1970-72____

5. Percent Share of Male Initial Accessions Identified by AFQT Mental

Group, All Services, Fiscal Years 1960-73-

6. Percentage Distribution of New Accessions, by Service and AFQT

Mental Group, Fiscal Years 1970-73-

12

7. Percentage Distribution for "True" Volunteers, by Service and AFQT

Mental Group, Fiscal Years 1970-73.

13

8. Average Mental Abilities Based on AFQT Test Results for Male True

Volunteers, by Service, and for the Total U.S. Male Population,

Fiscal Years 1970-73_

14

9. High School Graduates: Comparison of Initial Accessions, and of

Čivilian Labor Force, by Service, Fiscal Years 1970-73_.

10. High School Graduates: Comparison of True Volunteers, and of Civil-

ian Labor Force, by Service, Fiscal Years 1970-73_.

15

16

11. Nonwhites as Percentage of Active Duty Enlisted Forces, All Services,

and of Total Population, Calendar Years 1960-72-

17

12. Nonwhites as Percentage of Active Duty Enlisted Forces, by Service,

Calendar Years 1970-72__

17

13. Nonwhites as Percentage of Initial Accessions, All Services, Fiscal

Years 1960–72_.

18

14. Percentage of Nonwhites by AFQT Mental Groups I-V.

19

15. Nonwhites as Percentage of Initial Accessions, by Service, Fiscal Years

1970-73___

19

(IX)

95-825 0-73- -2

16. A Comparison of Median Weekly Earnings of Civilian Full Time Wage

and Salary Workers (Ages 18, 19, and 20) and Weekly Earnings of

Enlisted Males During the First Year of Military Service, Fiscal Page

Years 1967-73_.

17. Comparison of Median Weekly Earnings of Civilian Full-time Wage

and Salary Workers and Military Enlisted Personnel on Active Duty,

by Age and Sex, May 1972_

18. Trends in Department of Defense Recruiting Resources for Active

Duty Forces, Fiscal Years 1970-73_.

CHAPTER 3: LONG-TERM PROSPECTS

19. True Volunteers and Unemployment Rates, by State for the Fifty

States and the District of Columbia, Calendar Year 1970_

TABLES

CHAPTER 1: THE TRANSITION YEARS

1-1 Enlistment of Male True Volunteers, by Service, Fiscal Years 1971-74-

1-2 Percentage of Male Enlistees Discharged by the Army as "Unsuitable"

in Fiscal Years 1971-72, by AFQT Mental Group and Educational

Level___

1-3 Percentage Distribution of Earnings, Parents of Recruits and Appli-

cants U.S. Air Force Compared with U.S. Family Income, Calendar

Years 1970-73__

1-4 Annual Cost of the All-Volunteer Force, by Category, Fiscal Years

1972-74__

1-5 Components of Military Pay Increase, Fiscal Years 1968-74-

CHAPTER 2: REMAINING TRANSITION PROBLEMS: SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS

2-1 Reserve Forces: Authorized Strength, Fiscal 1973, and Manpower

Shortage or Surplus, by Reserve Component, March 1973___

2-2 Estimates of Gains and Losses for Reserve Enlisted Manpower, by

Service, Fiscal 1974__.

2-3 Recruits Scoring in Mental Category IV as a Percentage of Accessions

with No Prior Service, Reserve and Active Forces, Fiscal Year 1972

2-4 Women Enlisted Personnel as a Percentage of Accessions with No

Prior Service, Reserve and Active Forces, Fiscal Year 1972-

2-5 Black Enlisted Men as a Percentage of Accessions with No Prior Serv-

ice, Active and Reserve Forces, Fiscal Year 1972__

21

22 23

CHAPTER 3: LONG-TERM PROSPECTS

3-1 Total Active Force Military Manpower Requirements, by Service,

Fiscal Years 1971-74__ __

38

3-2 Average Annual Demand for Male Enlisted Volunteers, by Service,

Fiscal Years 1973-79_.

3-3 Percentage Distribution of New Accessions by Service, AFQT Mental

Group and Service Quality Goals, Fiscal Years 1960-69, 1972-73--

3-4 Average Demand for Male Enlisted Volunteers, by Service and AFQT

Mental Group, Fiscal Years 1975–79___.

3-5 Male Candidates for Military Services, Ages 17-22, Selected Calendar

Years 1960–79_.

3-6 Proportions of Qualfied and Available Manpower Required to Meet

Enlisted Accession Requirements, by Age, Average for Fiscal Years

1975-79---

3-7 Comparison of Projected Supply of and Demand for Male Enlisted

Accessions, by Service and AFQT Mental Groups, Average for

Fiscal Years 1975-79_

39

40

40

41

41

43