STATE EXTENDED BENEFIT TRIGGER PERIODS UNDER H.R. 15119 INDICATORS A State extended benefit period under H. R. 15119 would have begun in any State when, for any 13 consecutive-week period, the insured unemployment rate in the State would have been at least 20 percent higher than the average for the corresponding period of the two preceding calendar years, provided the current rate equalled at least 3 percent of covered employment. The State trigger would continue to be "on" as long as both of these conditions would have been met. All States would have had trigger periods under H. R. 15119 State indicators some time during the 1957-68 period. The following three tables identify the State trigger periods under H. R. 15119 indicators, and the national trigger periods under H.R. 12625 indicators: Table A: States which only would have had trigger periods under These State trigger periods would have occurred only within the national trigger period which would have begun in February 1958 and ended in September 1959. Table Bi States which would have had trigger periods under H.R. 15119 1/ Information not available before 1961. Based on average annual insured unemployment rates for 1957-68, Alaska might have triggered in 1957; Hawaii might not have triggered outside of the national trigger periods; and Puerto Rico might have had trigger periods outside of the national trigger periods, during 1964 and 1965. 2/ These States are also listed in table C. * Extended benefit period continued to meet 13-week minimum requirement. Table C: States which would have had trigger periods under H.R. 15119 beginning before, and ending during, H. R. 12625 national trigger periods, 1957-68. 1/ Only one national trigger period (on, 2/58; off, 9/59) would have been involved. 2/ These States are also listed in table B. 3/ Information not available before 1961. Based on average annual insured unemployment rates for 1957-68, Alaska might have triggered in 1957, and Hawaii might have triggered approximately the same time as the national trigger periods. 4/ Information not available. Based on average annual insured unemployment rates for 1961-68, it is doubtful that Puerto Rico would have triggered during 1961-63. NOTE: No State would have had a trigger period under H. R. 15119 beginning during, and ending after, the H. R. 12625 national trigger periods, 1957-68. ESTIMATED BENEFIT COST OF FEDERAL-STATE EXTENDED UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION UNDER H. R. 12625 The Federal-State Extended Unemployment Compensation Program would cost about $1,440 million in benefits, if the program were triggered in July 1970 for 18 months. For each year that the national trigger period is postponed, the benefit cost of the program would increase by about 8-1/2 percent, higher when coverage would be expanded. If the program were to trigger in July 1978 the benefit cost would be about $2,840 million, or nearly double the cost for the period beginning July 1970. Table 1 contains dollar benefit cost of the Federal-State program for 18-month national trigger periods beginning each July. Table 2, contains the estimated FUTA total and taxable wages for CY's 1970-78. Cost rates of the program may be obtained by dividing the total of the benefit costs for selected trigger periods in table 1 by the aggregate FUTA wage figure under desired tax base or bases in table 2. For example, if the two national trigger periods beginning July 1970 and July 1975 are assumed, the benefit cost would total $3,670 million ($1,440 million plus $2,230 million). The average benefit cost rate under a $4,800 tax base throughout CY's 1970-78 would be the ratio of $3,670 million in benefits to the 9-year aggregate taxable wages of $2,745 billion, or .13 percent. At this rate the cost would be financed by about one-third of the .4 percent FUTA tax rate under the tax base of $4,800. Various ratios of benefit costs in table 1 to aggregate FUTA wages in table 2 may be selected to obtain benefit cost rates. It is reasonable to assume that the Federal-State program would trigger only once for an 18-month period during the CY 1970-76 period. This |