Kammen – Testimony for the United States House Committee on Government Reform, September 21, 2006

a

Renewable Portfolio Standard (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass)
Table 1. Description of scenario strategies and key findings for 2050 in the US electricity
market.

The US currently uses 17 quads of primary energy for light duty fleet transportation. This figure is expected to grow to 24 quads in 2025 and 39 quads in 2050 under the current projected growth rate of 1.9% per year. Present emissions from light duty fleet transportation are 1,560 MMTCE and are projected to grow to 2,229 MMTCE by 2025 and 3,604 MMTCE by 2050. We examined potential reductions in CO2 emissions from a business-as-usual approach by improving CAFÉ standards, increasing the market share of hybrid vehicles and meeting a larger portion of fuel demands with ethanol. We analyzed four scenarios based on moderate or aggressive paths of CAFÉ increases, hybrid market share increases and ethanol market share increases (Table 2).

By 2025, light duty fleet carbon emissions can be reduced by approximately 29-45% from BAU and by 2050, carbon emissions can be reduced by approximately 58-72%.

Kammen - Testimony for the United States House Committee on Government Reform, September 21, 2006

Substantial savings from both the electricity and light vehicle sectors, which combined account for 65% of US emissions today, can be realized through a set of scenarios in both of these sectors (Figure 2). Nearly 75% from today's 4000 MMTCE can be saved under the most aggressive scenario.

Figure 2. Carbon emissions from combined electricity and transportation sectors.

Kammen - Testimony for the United States House Committee on Government Reform, September 21, 2006

References and further reading

Augustine, N. R. (2005) Rising Above The Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. Washington, DC, National Academies Press.

Bailis, R., Ezzati, M. and Kammen, D. M. (2005) "Mortality and greenhouse gas impacts of biomass and petroleum energy futures in Africa", 308, Science, 98 - 103.

David, P. A., B. H. Hall, et al. (2000). "Is public R&D a complement or substitute for private R&D? A review of the econometric evidence." Research Policy, 29(4-5): 497-529.

Duke, R. D., and Kammen, D. M. (1999) "The economics of energy market transformation initiatives", The Energy Journal, 20 (4), 15-64.

EPA (2005). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2003. Washington, D.C., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) The Scientific Basis (Cambridge University
Press; Cambridge, UK).

Jacobson, A. and Kammen, D. M. (2005) "Science and engineering research to value the planet", The Bridge: the Journal of the National Academy of Engineering, Winter, 11 - 17. Kammen, D. M. (2005) “Lack of vision on policy clouds energy future", The San Francisco Chronicle, B9, May 13.

Kammen, D. M., Kapadia, K. and Fripp, M. (2004) Putting Renewables to Work: How Many
Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate? A Report of the Renewable and
Appropriate Energy Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley. Available at:
http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html#econdev

Kammen, D. M. and G. F. Nemet (2005) "Reversing the Incredible Shrinking Energy R&D
Budget" Issues in Science and Technology, 22: 84 - 88.

Margolis, R. and Kammen, D. M. (1999) “Underinvestment: The energy technology and R&D policy challenge", Science, 285, 690 - 692.

Nakicenovic, N., J. Alcamo, et al. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A Special
Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press.

PCAST (1997) Report to the President on Federal Energy Research and Development for the
Challenges of the Twenty-First Century. Washington, Office of the President.

PCAST (1999) Powerful Partnerships: The Federal Role in International Energy Cooperation on Energy Innovation. Washington, Office of the President.

Kammen - Testimony for the United States House Committee on Government Reform, September 21, 2006

Schock, R. N., W. Fulkerson, et al. (1999 "How much is Energy Research and Development Worth as Insurance?" Annual Review of Energy and Environment 24: 487 - 512.

Wigley, T. M. L., R. Richels, et al. (1996) "Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations." Nature, 379: 240 - 243.

All materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu

Hearing: