the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Telephone orders may be directed to: Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office (202) 512-1800 FAX: (202) 512-2250 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., eastern time, M-F All mail orders should be directed to: U.S. Government Printing Office Pittsburgh, PA 15250-7954 Complimentary subscriptions and single issues are available to certain groups of subscribers, such as public and academic libraries, Federal, State, local and foreign governments, EIA survey respondents, and the media. For further information and for answers to questions on energy statistics, please contact EIA's National Energy Information Center. Address, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows: National Energy Information Center, EI-231 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building, Room 1F-048 Washington, DC 20585 (202)586-8800 Internet E-Mail: INFOCTR@EIA.DOE.GOV TTY: For people who are deaf or hard of hearing: (202)586-1181 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., eastern time, M-F INTERNET ADDRESSES: E-mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov World Wide Web Site://http://www.eia.doe.gov Gopher Site: gopher://gopher.eia.doe.gov Released for Printing: February 1, 1996 Printed with soy ink on recycled paper Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections First Quarter 1996 February 1996 Energy Information Administration Distribution Category UC-950 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the The Short-Term Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use (EMEU). General questions concerning the content of the report may be referred to W. Calvin Kilgore (202-586-1617), Director of EMEU; Mark Rodekohr (202-586-1441), Director of Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division; or Derriel Cato (202-586-6574), Chief of the Short-Term Forecasting and Contingency Branch. Detailed questions may be addressed to David Costello (202-586-1468) or the following analysts: Domestic crude oil production figures are provided by the EIA Dallas Field Office, under the supervision of John H. Wood (214-767-2200). Nuclear electricity generation forecasts are provided by Kenneth Wade (202-426-1248); projections for hydroelectric generation, electricity imports, and nonutility generation are provided by Robin Reichenbach (202-426-1189); and coal production, imports, and exports are provided by Byung Doo Hong (202-426-1126)—all of the EIA Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels. Energy Information Administration The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. Energy Information Administration |