TABLE 1.-Physical accomplishment on Works Progress Administration projects through Oct. 1, 1937-Continued

TABLE 1.-Physical accomplishment on Works Progress Administration projects through Oct. 1, 1937-Continued

When the $1,500,000,000 appropriation was made it was hoped that private employment would continue as a fairly high level, but the sharp increase in unemployment and the rise in relief needs in recent months has changed the picture. Before the present slump, the

country experienced one of its most rapid recovery movements. During the closing months of 1936 and extending through the middle of 1937 business activity surged ahead rapidly. From the early part of 1936 industrial production increased 30 percent to the end of the year. These gains were well sustained during the first half of 1937. Employment rose during this period, with an increase of 3,047,000 workers from March 1936 to September 1937.

Senator ADAMS. Do you mind an interruption there?

Mr. WILLIAMS. No, sir.

Senator ADAMS. Do you have in mind an approximation as to the employment conditions during this period from what it was back in 1928 and 1929?

Mr. WILLIAMS. I don't quite understand the question, Senator. Senator ADAMS. You had an increase in employment of some 3,000,000 people during this period and at the peak of that how did the employment situation compare with the condition we had in 1928 and 1929?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Well, I couldn't give you exact figures on that, Mr. Ross, do you want to answer that specifically?

Mr. Ross. Estimating, of course, in terms of employment, I believe there has been an increase in excess of 9,000,000 from the low point of the depression to the peak of this current recovery. It never, however, came back to the high point in 1929.

Senator HALE. At what figure do you estimate unemployment at the present time?

Mr. Ross. Practically 11,000,000 at the present time.

Senator HALE. Practically 11,000,000 at the present time. And it was 8,000,000 in November, is that correct?

Mr. Ross. Well, the estimates vary, of course. Mr. Biggers' census showed 11,000,000.

Senator HALE. Yes; but you say 3,000,000 have gone out of work since November 1. Therefore, if there were 8,000,000 then, now there must be 11,000,000, a substantial increase.

Mr. WILLIAMS. They are estimates of course.

Senator HALE. Are not those figures lower than those generally given out?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Well, the American Federation of Labor and others have estimated approximately that number.

Senator HALE. Practically what number at that time?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Around 8,000,000 in October and November. Senator TOWNSEND. Mr. Biggers' estimate, however, was larger than that, was it not?

Mr. Ross. Yes; after he corrected for the number who had not registered; it was approximately 11,000,000 in November.

Mr. WILLIAMS. Senator Adams, did we get the import of your question?

Senator ADAMS. To invert it in terms of unemployment, what was the relative proportion of the American working population unemployed after this 3,000,000 increase with the proportion of unemployment in 1928 and 1929?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Well, a more valid basis for comparing years is to take the year 1937 as compared with 1932 ör 1933. That is a more valid basis of comparison.

Now, early in 1933, we estimate there were between fifteen and sixteen million unemployed people. That was reduced by 1937 to something around 8,000,000. The important thing for us here, however, is that last summer we were anticipating a continued rise in employment and had felt that we could get along on $1,500,000,000 during the past year.

Senator ADAMS. Do you have an estimate as to the number of unemployed in 1928 and 1929?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Well, we have varying estimates.

Senator ADAMS. Of course, you have that as to every unit?

Mr. Ross. In 1929, the estimate was roughly 2,000,000 average for

the year.

Senator HAYDEN. I remember some testimony, Mr. Chairman, by Mr. Green in 1929 when he asserted then that there were two and a half million unemployed in the United States.

Senator GLASS. Is it not all conjecture? We don't know a thing in the world about it; it is simply all conjecture.

Mr. WILLIAMS. At that time, Senator, that is very true. The only accurate studies that were made at that time were made out in Minneapolis by Mr. Hanson, and he estimated there were more unemployed people in Minneapolis at that time and also more employed people at that time, December 1, 1928, than at any other time in its history. That was an accurate count and it was one of the few accurate counts that was made with regard to unemployment.

Senator BYRNES. Before the unemployment committee we had considerable testimony from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from Mr. Biggars, from National Industrial Conference Board, and one or two other sources, and we could not get an agreement. Therefore, what the Senator from Virginia says is pretty nearly correct. There necessarily must be considerable guessing and it depends entirely upon whom you consider unemployed, the definition, and so forth, and it is a very difficult thing to arrive at.

Mr. WILLIAMS. If that is all on that point I shall resume my statement. Factory pay rolls reflected this improvement in business, increasing 41 percent. Dividend payments poured out to stock owners during 1936 and earnings remained at high levels throughout the first three quarters of 1937. National income increased through 1936 and continued rising during the first half of 1937. Price levels advanced rapidly through the first quarter of 1937, a fact which accounted in part for the general expansion. Recovery was stimulated by public expenditures during this period.

Senator HALE. What was your basis for dropping numbers at that time? You said there were 8,000,000 unemployed in the country. Mr. WILLIAMS. Not all of the unemployed workers are in need of public relief, the total number in need however tends to decline when unemployment decreases.

Senator HALE. That is, you do not expect then to give work relief to all the unemployed? You simply pick out certain ones.

Mr. WILLIAMS. We take the most needy; those people who come through the relief agencies and are in need; they are the ones that we have employed.

Senator BYRNES. Every unemployed man is not in need; every unemployed man does not ask for a job.

Mr. WILLIAMS. No, sir.

Senator HALE. But at the time this was done there were some of these employables who were unemployed-who were receiving relief help in the States?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Yes; the States and localities have provided for some employables.

Senator HALE. So you did not attempt to deal with them all? You simply picked out as many as you thought you could take care of? Mr. WILLIAMS. With the funds now available the W. P. A. has not been able to give employment to all eligible families in need.

Senator HALE. What?

Mr. WILLIAMS. The W. P. A. is not now able to give employment to all employable cases.

Senator HALE. But you give it to families who get assistance from other sources?

Mr. WILLIAMS. No; not if the assistance that they receive is equal to the minimum relief standard of the certifying agency in the community.

Senator HALE. But you give aid to families some of whom are in the C. C. C., do you not?

Mr. WILLIAMS. The employment of the head of the family on the W. P. A. does not preclude the enrollment of a member of the family in the C. C. C. The local relief agencies which certify as to the need of the families of W. P. A. workers take into account all the resources available to the families.

do

Senator HALE. And also some more in the Youth Administration, you not?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Yes, sir; in the Youth Administration.

Senator HALE. Now then, when you do give help to those people who have help from these two organizations, you give so much less help on account of their receiving help from the other organizations? Mr. WILLIAMS. No; W. P. A. workers are not paid on a budgetary basis, they are paid on a monthly security wage basis.

Senator HALE. So some of your people may be getting help from you and help from their families from the C. C. C. and also the National Youth Administration?

Mr. WILLIAMS. It would be very seldom that a family would get aid from the three sources. They might get it from two; they might get it from the N. Y. A. and W. P. A., but only if they were in need. Senator HALE. You mean you have specifically a rule that they can get help from two?

Mr. WILLIAMS. They are not supposed

Senator HALE. I know they are not supposed, but you might inquire and find out if they do not. Do you say that in no case they get help from both of these other agencies when they get help from the W. P. A.?

Mr. WILLIAMS. If a young person in a family is getting C. C. C. aid, we don't take any person out of that family for N. Y. A. work. It would be against our rules to do that.

Senator HALE. If they were getting help from the C. C. C.?

Mr. WILLIAMS. Yes.

Senator HALE. And so you have many cases where they do get help from the C. C. C.?

Mr. WILLIAMS. That might happen in the high school aid program. That would be the only possible place where a student could get