The CHAIRMAN. Did you say, "reporting stations"? Mrs. SMITH. Yes. Also line 4, after "in cooperation", the words: with the State Department and other United States Government departments and agencies.

The CHAIRMAN. Then beginning on line 4 it would read:

and maintenance of such reporting stations in cooperation with the State Department and other United States Government departments and agencies.

Is that correct?

Mrs. SMITH. Yes, "with the meteorological services of foreign countries and with persons engaged in air commerce."

I would like to call your attention, Mr. Chairman, in the Senate report on page 4, it was requested that "it is cooperating with Commerce, War, Navy, and Air," but not a part of the Department of Commerce.

Mr. PHILLIPS. Has this passed the Senate, Mr. Chairman?
The CHAIRMAN. Yes, with those amendments.

Mr. PHILLIPS. This bill is necessary in order to provide an authorization for funds, or is it necessary to give us the authority to join into the investigation?

Mrs. SMITH. This is for authority only, Mr. Phillips.

Mr. PHILLIPS. We also would have to have the authority to cooperate. We would have to pass a law. We don't have it now.

The CHAIRMAN. I think that is right.

Mrs. SMITH. This takes care of that. This authorizes the cooperation by the changes made.

Mr. PHILLIPS. We do not have it now.

Mrs. SMITH. No.

Mr. GRANGER. You are agreeable to the Senate amendments?
Mrs. SMITH. Yes, sir.

The CHAIRMAN. Thank you, Mrs. Smith.
Doctor, we would like to hear from you.

STATEMENT OF DR. FRANCIS W. REICHELDERFER, CHIEF OF THE
WEATHER BUREAU

Dr. REICHELDERFER. I would like to take a minute or two to indicate roughly the economic or financial value of reports from the polar regions and then to discuss very briefly some charts which illustrate the use of reports from the Arctic in our daily weather forecasts.

The CHAIRMAN. Before you get into that, Doctor, I would like to ask you a question or two. You do not have authority now to establish weather-bureau stations in the Arctic in cooperation with other foreign countries. Is that right?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. The authority is not covered specifically in our legislation. This bill would make it definite. Our basic law is fairly broad, and we could establish stations in the Arctic, but it is quite an undertaking, and we would like to have specific authority. The CHAIRMAN. You would like specific authority to establish stations in cooperation with other foreign powers. Is that right?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. We know they are very much interested and we have reason to believe they will cooperate. I was in Moscow on an official trip last summer at the request of the State Department.

I talked with the Director of the Soviet Meteorological Service, and he indicated they were very much interested and hoped that some collaborative arrangements for international cooperation in maintaining stations could be set up.

We have had similar informal expressions of interest from the British.

The CHAIRMAN. How many stations would you establish?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. Originally we would not plan to establish many. I think the whole project would have to be developed slowly, perhaps only five or six in the beginning.

The CHAIRMAN. After you have established these stations, could they be under the management of the United States, or under international management?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. We have not gone so far as to work that out yet. Originally we would plan to set up stations wholly under the United States in the hope we could get other countries to do their share by establishing stations under their flags in their own parts of the Arctic. That is the way we visualize it now.

The CHAIRMAN. You would have separate stations?
Dr. REICHELDERFER. That is the present plan.

The CHAIRMAN. Is that what you have in mind?
Dr. REICHELDERFER. Yes.

The CHAIRMAN. The United States would have a station, and some of the other foreign powers would also have them?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. That is the present plan. Eventually it might work out in future years that stations in the Arctic Basin would be cooperative and might be under some international organization. But that is not in the immediate plan. That all depends upon how the international

The CHAIRMAN. What you have in mind is to establish stations that would be under the management of the United States Government?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. That is it.

Mr. HOPE. These stations would be within the territorial limits of other countries, some of them. You might have some in Alaska, but there would be some in the territorial limits of other countries. Even in the beginning, you would have to have an international agreement, I assume, with those countries to permit you to go in there.

Dr. REICHELDERFER. Principally Canada.

Mr. HOPE. Have you discussed the matter with the Canadians to the extent where you would feel sure of their cooperation in something of that kind?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. The United States, with the concurrence of Canada and collaboration of Canada, established and maintained stations in the far North during the war as a military measure. We have every reason to believe that the Canadians would agree to any reasonable arrangement for us to establish and maintain stations at points that would be of benefit to them but which they cannot establish and maintain under present circumstances.

We would get more benefit economically from it than the Canadians would. In cases like that, we have heretofore arranged to furnish certain facilities, in order to divide the cost equitably as well as we I think the same sort of an arrangement would be set up in connection with this proposed plan.

can.

We work very closely with the Canadian Meteorological Service. I feel quite sure Dr. Patterson, Director of that Service, would cooperate in the plan we would propose.

The CHAIRMAN. What do you think the cost of the station would be?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. It is difficult for me to say. I think one of the subsequent witnesses whom you intend to call can speak more directly on that subject than I can.

I might say the plans could be considered as being extensible. To cover the entire Arctic as we would like to have it covered would cost too much. It would cost several million dollars. If we cannot have that, if it is too costly, then whatever number of stations we can have and could support, in the opinion of Congress, would be helpful. I find it very difficult to give a definite answer to your question about the cost.

The CHAIRMAN. I see in the Senate report this statement:

Estimate of costs cannot be given without careful study and detailed planning It will be in the vicinity of $200,000 for stations and installations.

Dr. REICHELDERFER. I have heard that estimate. It probably is reasonable.

The CHAIRMAN. In the event some foreign power cooperated with the United States in the establishment of the station, some particular station, would that cost be shared between the two powers?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. It would probably have to be set up on some prorata basis, based on an estimate of the value to the nation concerned. We have done that in the International Ice Patrol supported by the maritime nations during the last 20 or 25 years. The contribution of each nation is based upon an estimate of the economic value to the shipping of that nation. This proposal is similar in many respects to the International Ice Patrol.

Mr. HOPE. As far as cost is concerned, assuming this $200,000 is as good an estimate as you can make now, you would not start in to establish a dozen stations all at once. You probably will start with one, two, or three, or something like that.

Dr. REICHElderfer. That is correct.

Mr. HOPE. Depending on the amount of the appropriations authorized by Congress as you went along with the idea. The project would develop progressively.

Dr. REICHELDERFER. Yes.

Mr. HOPE. You would gain more experience and a better idea of what you might be expected to learn, both as to the location of the station and what might be developed as to the activity.

Dr. REICHELDERFER. Moreover, we think the experience with the first few stations would lead the way to more efficient stations and perhaps economies in the establishment of the additional stations later on.

The CHAIRMAN. No further questions, Doctor; you may proceed with your general statement.

Dr. REICHELDERFER. I would like to indicate the economic and industrial significance of the proposed Arctic plan based upon the probable value in the improvement of weather forecasting.

The effects of weather and climate on farm products are too well known by this committee to need elaboration. If weather is favorable

81775-46- -2

for crops, there is record production. If weather is very unfavorable, then there may be crop failure. Meteorologists cannot manufacture weather to order.

At the present time, for all practical purposes, all we can do is attempt to tell you about the weather, and forecast what is to come. Farmers can do a great deal to protect their crops and take advantage of weather if they know in advance what to expect. For example, the value of ore 36-hour forecast to agriculture in one instance is illustrated by a letter we received recently from the Fresno Chamber of Chamber. We have attempted during the last season or two to forecast the amount of rainfall for raişin growers. In the process of drying raisins it is very important that they be protected from rainfall. But it also costs a great deal to protect them. It interrupts the drying process. Growers don't want to take protective measures unless necessary. If a shower is going to be very light and is not likely to affect a very large area, the growers usually do not take protective measures. On the other hand, if it is a general rain and of appreciable amount, then they must protect the raisins or there will be complete loss.

Our forecasts for amount of rainfall, as we have known from the start, have been based upon incomplete data. We do not always know how much moisture there is available in the air for the formation of rain. We may have to guess at that. We need additional measurements in order to determine the amount in a more scientific and quantitative manner.

The CHAIRMAN. If you had these Arctic stations-

Dr. REICHELDERFER. They would help. In this particular case, the raisin growers say they lost $12,000,000 because instead of getting the light shower we expected-I don't think the forecasters can be blamed too much, because they used the best information they had the shower was heavy.

Twelve million dollars loss in one 36-hour period in one region of the country! The total value of accurate forecasts for the entire country would undoubtedly run into many millions, perhaps more than a billion a year, if the forecast could be made more accurate.

I would now like to show how the reports from the Arctic will help in making forecasts more accurate. I want to be perfectly definite however and say that we cannot guarantee 100-percent accurate forecasts if we get stations in the Arctic, but we can guarantee, or we can be sure, that without the information from the Arctic we are lacking some of the data necessary to do weather forecasting in a more quantitative and scientific manner.

Mr. HOPE. It is your thought, is it, that if you had this Arctic station you could make your forecasts further in advance? Is that the main point?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. It would improve the range of the forecast, that is, we could make them further in advance. It would also improve the accuracy, we feel quite sure, Just how much, we cannot

say.

I am going to brief my next remarks and just hit the high spots. I think if I refer to these charts it will be much easier to see why we are confident that reports from the Arctic Basin would help very much in weather forecasting.

Our changes in weather and our rainfall and snowfall come primarily from the interaction of cold air masses, huge bodies of air from the Arctic, the interaction of those masses with warm, moist air masses from the south. That has been illustrated by this diagram, which is a well-known one among meteorologists. This is a view looking down, a plan view of a storm. Here is the center of the storm. The boundaries are shown by these lines in the form of a wave-it is in fact a wave in the atmosphere--all of the air to the north on each side is cold. This air up into this trough is warm. It is from the south. In this part of the country it is usually from the Caribbean or the Atlantic.

The change of weather from warm to cold or from cold to warm occurs along these boundaries between the air masses. The interaction of the two air masses along those boundaries causes rain.

The CHAIRMAN. What are the red line and green line? Dr. REICHELDERFER. The red line is a warm front. This whole system moves eastward, usually. That red line is the boundary where cold air is being replaced at the ground by warm air as it moves eastward. We call that a warm front.

The CHAIRMAN. What is the blue line?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. The cold front. That is where the warm air is displaced by the cold air arriving fresh from the north. This gives weather conditions which you will recognize at once. Over here along the warm front and in advance of it we have the steady rain, the high clouds.

Then there is the alto stratus and the stratus clouds, and finally the rain clouds. Usually the rain lasts several hours and is rather light. It is a steady rain. But over here along the cold front, where the cold air is relatively colder than in advance of the storm, and where there is an interaction between the unstable warm air in front and the cold air in the rear, we get showers and thunder storms. That is where we get the term "clearing showers." It is not the showers that clear the air but the cold, clear air coming behind which causes the showers. The folklore has it in reverse.

Mr. VOORHIS. What happens when you are in the middle?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. It depends on the character of the air. Sometimes it is hot and humid. Sometimes you get the showers within the warm air mass itself. Typically you get the steady rain out here, the showers here, fair and hot in the middle, cold and dry behind the cold front. It is the cold and dry air that is coming along this morning after the storm we had yesterday.

Looking at it vertically to show it a little more plainly--and then I will be through with this part-this is the vertical section through this line. This is the plan view and this section at the bottom is the vertical section into the atmosphere. Here you have the warm front and here you have the high clouds I mentioned. The steady rain runs through here, and a person on the ground is in cool air. As it moves. eastward he goes from the cool air into relatively warm, moist air, usually fair, and then he gets into the showers and cold air. It turns very much colder after the showers.

Mr. VOORHIS. Why doesn't that work in Washington in the summertime?

Dr. REICHELDERFER. These systems become very complex. If it were as simple as this, it would be easier to forecast. This is the