Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000–2050: Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000–2050 Madrid, Spain 2–5 October 2002This book collects most of the contributions prepared for the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) on Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000-2050. The ARW took place in Madrid from 2 to 5ofOctober 2002. Scholars and researchers from North and South ofthe Mediterranean and other countries from NATO gathered in Madrid for discussing several important factors that could affect Mediterranean security in the next 50 years. In this regard the first chapter presents the different debates regarding environmental security that took place in the last decade. This chapter is an introductory chapter and takes into account the possible audience in the Southern Mediterranean and the wishes ofsome contributors. For this reason the chapter deals in extenso with the question ofhuman security and the different approaches. The ARW dealt with issues that may affect the supply of fundamental goods for human living. To this end the complex question ofclimate change, its impact in the Mediterranean, the predicted increase in temperatures and predictions about rainfall are analysed. As part of this approach a chapter about solar variability and climate change is also added. |
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Contents
Environmental Security and Human Security | 5 |
Solar Variability and Climate Change | 29 |
Qualitativequantitative scenarios as a means to support sustainabilityoriented regional planning | 47 |
Climate change and the occurrence of extremes some implications for the Mediterranean Basin | 61 |
Regional IPCC Projections untill 2100 in the Mediterranean Area | 75 |
Desertification in the Maghreb A Case Study of an Algerian HighPlain Steppe | 93 |
Prospects for Desertification Impacts for Egypt and Libya1 | 109 |
Prospective Desertification Trends In The Negev Implications For Urban And Regional Development | 123 |
In the long term will there be water shortage in Mediterranean Europe? | 233 |
Implications of Population Decline for the European Union 20002050 | 247 |
Population Growth in The EuroMediterranean Region | 265 |
Food Trade of the Mediterranean Countries in a World Context Prospects to 2030 | 283 |
Food Security Prospects in the Maghreb | 301 |
EU Agriculture and Common Agricultural Policy Prospects for the 21st Century and Implications for Mediterranean Countries | 319 |
Urban change in Cairo | 331 |
Implications of Urbanisation for Turkey The Case of Istanbul | 345 |
139 | |
Prospects for desertification impacts in Southern Europe | 155 |
From Water Scarcity to Water Security in the Maghreb Region The Moroccan Case | 175 |
Water Scarcity Prospects in Egypt 2000 2050 | 187 |
Water worries in Jordan and Israel What may the future hold? | 205 |
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activities agricultural amount annual areas assessment average Cairo causes century cereals climate change concept considered consumption continue countries crops decrease definition degradation demand demographic desalination desertification East economic effects Egypt environment environmental estimated Europe European example expected factors fertility Figure forcing future global higher human security impact implementation important increase indicators industrial Institute International irrigation Israel issues Istanbul Italy Jordan land less major MCM/y means measures Mediterranean million Morocco natural percent period planning plant policies pollution population growth possible potential precipitation present problems production rainfall reduced reference region Report requirements Research result rivers rural scenarios sector significant social soil solar Source Southern Spain supply sustainable Table temperature trade trends Turkey United University urban values variability vegetation water resources