its history, a situation traceable in, large part to the immense amount of steel required for the completion of war orders. The volume and profitableness of the business are indicated by the record of unfilled orders and the net earnings of the U. S. Steel Corporation. Unfilled orders of the Corporation, usually considered an excellent index of trade, show an average of 9,334,119 tons for the first nine months of 1916, compared with 4,567,705 tons for the corre sponding period in 1915 and 4,306,846 tons in 1914. In November unfilled orders exceeded the ten-million ton mark, compared with 7,806,000 tons during December, 1915, 4,928,000 tons during July, 1915, and only 3,836,000 tons during December, 1914. The totals of unfilled orders by months for the last three years are as follows: 84,660,000 Commercial and Financial Chronicle concludes that present conditions are unique and grow entirely out of the great conflict in Europe. We have the twin advantages of a large output combined with extremely high prices for all classes of iron, and steel products, finished and unfinished, and in some instances, with prices without a parallel in recent times. Net earnings, after allowing for expenses and for interest on the bonds of subsidiary companies, amounted to $85,815,067, compared with $81,126,048 in the June quarter of 1916, with $38,710,644 in the September quarter of 1915, and with only $22,706,002 in the September quarter of 1914. The September quarter's earnings of $85,000,000 exceeded the total earnings for all of 1914 ($71,663,615) by over $11,000,000. September earnings of $30,420,150 exceeded those of any preceding month, while in January, 1915, earnings amounted to only $1,687,150. Even allowing for the quarterly dividend of 24 per 4,613,680 4,248,571 7,922,767 cent. on the common stock and 14 5,026,440 4,345,371 8,568,966 4,653,825 4,255,749 9,331,001 per cent. on the preferred, surplus 4,277,068 4,162,244 9,829,551 earnings for the September quarter 3,998,160 4,264,598 9,937,798 amounted to the unprecedented total 4,158,589 4,928,540 9,593,592 of $51,859,450. But despite these 1914 1915 1916 4,032,857 4,678,196 9,640,458 4,213,331 4,908,455 9,660,357 large profits of the Steel Corpora- All accounts indicate also that the industry is thriving on rapidly improving prices as well as from heavy orders. Referring to the financial statement of the U. S. Steel Corporation for the September quarter, the whole, prices of steel are still rising and the end of the movement is not yet in sight. As is pointed out by the Iron Age in its issue of Nov. 9: The rise in finished steel products goes on. On black sheets the leading up for the first half, has made adinterest, which is now practically sold vances of $2 to $3 a ton. It has fol lowed independent tin plate makers in putting its price at $6 per base box, or 25 cents above its first sales for the first half. Wire nails were advanced $3 on Nov. 6, or to $2.85, while fence wire has gone from $2.65 to $2.80, and woven wire fencing is up $6 a ton. On the leading finished steel products -plates, structural shapes and barssome mills are refusing to quote for next year except on specific amounts to cover contracts in the hands of manufacturing consumers. In plates the inability of the mills to cope with the demand is more pronounced and prices are telling the story. COPPER TRADE The prosperity noted in the iron and steel business has been fully duplicated in the copper industry also, but unfortunately no reliable figures of production are available for the year (see also XVIII, Copper). It is certain, however, that the domestic and foreign demand for the metal, owing largely to the increased needs of the belligerent nations, has been very much larger than during 1915, when, according to the statistics of the U. S. Geological Survey, the production of primary copper by the refining plants of the country was 1,634,204,448 lb. Statistics recently issued by Secretary Mayer of the New York Metal Exchange show that exports of copper for the first eight months of 1916 (not including those to British North America and Mexico) amounted to 215,199 long tons, as compared with only 171,786 tons for the corresponding months of 1915. These figures are noteworthy also in that they show that four of the belligerent nations, Great Britain, France, Italy and Russia, received 200,557 tons, or over 93 per cent. of the total exports for the first eight months of the year. France received over 105,000 tons, while Great Britain and Italy took respectively 51,738 and 31,143 tons. To livery to begin in January, 1917, at the rate of 75 million pounds monthly, and, according to reports, at a price somewhat in excess of 27 cents per pound, or approximately $125,000,000 for the entire contract. This is the largest order for copper ever concluded anywhere and amounts to more than two-thirds of the total copper exports for the entire year 1915, and more than one-half of annual exports in any previous year. Press accounts indicate also that domestic production is reaching unprecedented figures. The American Brass Co., for example, is reported as requiring 40 million pounds of copper a month, or at the rate of 480 million pounds a year. Other American concerns, particularly those engaged in turning out war munitions, are consuming the metal on a proportionately larger scale. Despite the greatly enlarged output, the metal has shown a sensational advance in price, namely, to 28.75 cents (electrolytic copper at New York) for October, 1916, compared with 17.98 cents a year before and 11.32 cents in 1914. În turn the heavy demand for the metal at greatly increased prices has had a material effect upon the quotations of leading copper shares. At the beginning of October the purchase price of Babson's list of 20 active and representative copper stocks was 57.1, compared with 28.6 late in 1907, 60.8 in August, 1909, and 31.9 in December, 1914. It is the consensus of opinion also that the pressure of demand at remarkably high prices has led to a material enlargement of copper-refining facilities, as well as the opening of many mines whose operation had been discontinued as unprofitable some years before the war. Recent estimates place the present annual copper-refining capacity of the United States at approximately 2,225,000,000 lb. FOREIGN TRADE That American production and exportation of copper are materially larger now than in 1915 or during the first half of 1916 is clearly indicated by recent press accounts. ward the close of September an- The discussion of the country's fornouncement was made that the En-eign trade in the last issue of the tente Allies had arranged a contract YEAR BOOK (p. 329) emphasized the through J. P. Morgan & Co. for the fact that we were dealing with an delivery of 200,000 long tons (448 abnormal situation. The same conmillion pounds) of copper, the de-dition has prevailed during the year 1916, and the country's exports, due | lions, or over 2.6 times that of Auto the same causes, vastly exceeded gust, 1915, when the balance was even the remarkable record of 1915. slightly less than 119 millions. Prior Again, as was stated last year, "whol- to the war, 278 millions represented ly as a result of the European War, the greatest value of merchandise excertain of the belligerents have made ports for any month (November, such demands upon us for supplies 1912); then followed in succession the and materials necessary for the prose-records of February, 1915 (300 milcution of the conflict as to create a lions); October, 1915 (336 millions); most extraordinary balance of trade December, 1915 (359 millions); in our favor, this balance, however, March, 1916 (410 millions); May, being confined to a comparatively lim- 1916 (474 millions); August, 1916 ited number of commodities." Ex- (510 millions); September, 1916 (515 ports of merchandise in the calendar millions); and November, 1916, with year 1915 amounted to $3,546,560,018, nearly 517 millions. As pointed out against $2,113,624,050 in 1914 and by the Commercial and Financial $2,484,018,292 in 1913. Imports of Chronicle in connection with the Aumerchandise, on the other hand, re- gust record: mained practically constant during the three years, being respectively $1,778,596,695, $1,789,276,001 and $1,792,596,480. The net balance of American exports for 1915 therefore reached the huge total of $1,767,963,323, as compared with only $324,348,049 in 1914 and $691,421,812 in 1913. This 510-million aggregate is not merely a high record of monthly exports for the United States; it stands as a high of the world by a considerable amount, water mark for any country or empire as do all the totals beginning with February, but in lesser degree. . . . The August exports of 510 millions is at a ratio that meantime would show the outward trade of the United States to be about one-third of that of the whole world in normal times. Such a ratio, of course, no one expects to continue following the return of peace, and the discontinuance of the extraordinary demands upon us by the Entente Allies. The United States is just now the beneficiary of large war orders at extraordinary prices and the high totals of our exports are the result of a purely temporary condition entirely inapplicable to the future. Yet, while they last, these large war orders serve as a re Foreign trade returns for 1916, however, far exceed the fondest expectations and show, as does no other business barometer, the large part played by war orders in our present prosperity. Exports of merchandise during the first eight months of the year amounted to the unprecedented total of $3,435,872,580, and exceeded the imports by $1,768,805,615. Although our foreign-trade balance of $1,080,028,442 for the first nine months of 1915 was the subject of endless comment, being considerably more than twice that for the corre-markable impetus to all industries sponding period of any previous year, it is noteworthy that the balance for the first nine months of 1916 is larger by nearly 689 millions. For purposes of comparison it may be stated that the record balance of trade in former years was $666,431,554 in the fiscal year 1907-1908. Yet impetus towards even greater imports seems to be gaining strength. For the month of September exports reached the unprecedented total of $515,007,408, and while they receded in October, in November they reached the new high record of $516,976,359. The September record exceeded any previous month of the present banner foreign trade year by 40 millions, and represents a balance of trade of 350 mil engaged directly or indirectly in filling and delivering them. To a very large extent, it should be stated, our large export figures are due to exceptionally high prices, as compared with the years preceding the war, and this is especially true of explosives, metals and other war materials, which are now leaving our shores in unusual quantities. A further analysis of our foreigntrade returns shows two important features, both emphasizing the importance of war conditions. The first relates to the great increase in exports to Great Britain, France, and Russia. On the one hand Great Britain alone, between Jan. 1 and the end of September, has contributed nearly $183,350,942 $122,148,317 $330,036,410 $267,879,313 $145,685,468 $145,730,996 one-half our balance of trade. In strong contrast to this situation stands the fact that, excluding blockaded Germany, Austria and Belgium, no less than 17 out of 21 important countries have sent larger imports to the United States during the first half of 1916 than they did during the corresponding period of 1915. The second feature to bear in mind is the greatly increased importance which certain articles, many of them very unimportant before the war, play in our export trade. The following tabulation published in August (Babson's report of Aug. 29) shows that exports of 14 groups of articles during the preceding ten months amounted to nearly $1,796,300,000, as compared with only $497,823,000 for the ten months preceding the war: Exports Mules and horses. Automobiles Ten Months Ten Months $73,000,000 155,000,000 and parts. 16,000,000 Railway cars.. Aeroplanes. Chemicals. Motorcycles. Cotton goods. Iron and steel. Canned goods, meat and dairy products.. 21,000,000 120,000,000 $3,500,000 22,000,000 47,000,000 plosives, comprised a total of nearly $810,000,000 for the ten months ending July, 1916, against only $57,000,000 for the ten months preceding the beginning of hostilities, an increase of nearly 15 fold. The huge balance of trade already referred to should not cause us to lose sight of the fact that our imports of merchandise during the first eight months of 1916 are also the greatest on record, totaling $1,667,066,965. This compares with $1,150,858,760 for the corresponding months of 1915 and with a previous high record of $1,270,361,263 in 1914. The exceptional present showing is traceable chiefly to the increased purchasing power of the country, owing to the present wave of prosperity. (See also XX, External Commerce of the United States.) BUILDING OPERATIONS The figures of new building construction during 1916 reached exceed20,000,000 ingly high totals for every month and 10,000,000 stand in striking contrast to the poor 195,000 showing recorded during the preced900,000 ing two years (4. Y. B., 1915, p. 43,000,000 331). In fact, the year's operations 472,000,000 212,000,000 for the first eight months, the latest figures available, at the time of writing, for the country as a whole, ex231,000,000 124,000,000 ceeded those of any previous year. 3,900,000 New York City shows an increase of 328,000 nearly 54 millions for the first eight months of the year, or nearly 43 per cent., as compared with the corresponding period of 1915. This inThe comparison shows that exports crease, equal to nearly a third of that of six of these groups, mules, horses, recorded by the Commercial and Fibrass, bronze, etc., automobiles and nancial Chronicle for 159 cities, is in parts, chemicals, zinc, etc., and ex-part attributable to the desire to file January BUILDING CONSTRUCTION February. April. August. September. October. (20 Leading Cities) 1915 1916 BUSINESS FAILURES In the 1915 issue of the YEAR BOOK (p. 332) it was explained that while the record of business failures during $26,693,647 $34,688,631 30,057,773 33,495,089 1915, as contrasted with the poor fail46,430,160 54,938,059 ure situation during 1914, showed no 49,863,072 56,271,635 53,102,523 67,326,185 improvement in the number of fail40,206,351 63,612,337 ures, there was a distinct improve40,472,174 87,947,719 ment in the total liabilities involved. 42,971,076 39,988,938 44,764,018 39,292,235 In 1916, however, the failure situa43,472,626 56,307,117 tion is very favorable both as regards 43,031,947 43,367,261 number and total liabilities. During 44,874,679 47,120,433 the first nine months of 1914 and 1915 the number of failures totaled, respectively, 12,189 and 15,987, and the total liability of failures, $258,248,719 and $229,822,336. The showing of 1916 for the corresponding months, however, shows a decrease of 19.3 per cent. in the number (12,899) as compared with 1915, and of 38 per cent. in the liabilities involved ($141,975,460). plans before the going into effect of a prospective change in the building regulations placing restrictions upon the height of structures ( (see VII, City Planning). In various other sections of the country the large figures reflect in part the extension of plants engaged in the filling of war orders. In presenting the results (for August) of its compilation of building operations for which contracts were arranged at 159 cities of the country, the Commercial and Finess activity; manufactures (see XIX, nancial Chronicle says: For the eight months this year's operations in Greater New York have been much greater than in 1915 or 1914, $179,626,975, comparing with $125,177, 087 and $105.237,200, the Borough of Manhattan being responsible for the gain over last year. Outside of this city the increase over a year ago is 97 million dollars ($509,510,729 contrasting with $412,682.047) and for the country as a whole (159 cities) the projected expenditures involved, at $689,137,704, is the largest of any year in our history, comparing with $537,859,134 in 1915 and 666 millions in 1912-the previous high record. Needless to say, all the various groups into which our returns are segregated share in the current year's gain. A further analysis of the figures shows fewer and less serious failures in the three main divisions of busi Manufactures), commerce and finance. The comparative improvement for 1916 over 1915 is well summarized by the Commercial and Financial Chronicle in the following: The exhibit for the third quarter of the current year (July-September inclusive) is the best for the period since 1913 as regards number, and for an ag gregate of indebtedness less than now recorded-$43,345,286-we have to go back to 1911. The 1915 total was $52, 876,525, and that of 1914 no less than $86,818,291, important brokerage failures contributing largely to it. Here also a considerable decline from a year ago is shown in the liabilities in the trading and miscellaneous divisions Manufacturing defaults this year stand |