Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems

Front Cover
Janos J. Bogardi, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Cambridge University Press, 2002 M01 28
Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems is based on the Third George Kovacs Colloquium organized by the International Hydrological Programme (UNESCO) and the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. Thirty-five leading scientists with international reputations provide reviews of topical areas of research on water resource systems, including aspects of extreme hydrological events: floods and droughts; water quantity and quality dams; reservoirs and hydraulic structures; evaluating sustainability and climate change impacts. As well as discussing essential challenges and research directions, the book will assist in applying theoretical methods to the solution of practical problems in water resources. The authors are multi-disciplinary, stemming from such areas as: hydrology, geography, civil, environmental and agricultural engineering, forestry, systems sciences, operations research, mathematics, physics and geophysics, ecology and atmospheric sciences. This review volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers.

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Contents

1 Introduction
1
Challenge from Agenda 21
4
The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
22
4 Aspects of uncertainty reliability and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
30
5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
41
Risk cartography for objective negotiations
47
7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
54
8 Developing an indicator of a communitys disaster risk awareness
62
13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
111
14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
122
15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
133
Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
143
17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
153
theory and practice
162
19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
169
20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
181

9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
70
10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
76
11 Stochastic precipitationrunoff modeling for water yield from a semiarid forested watershed
86
12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
101
21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
190
22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
199
23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
209
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