CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AN ANALYSIS OF SOME KEY QUESTIONS Committee on the Science of Climate Change Division on Earth and Life Studies National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, DC NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose International Standard Book Number 0-309-07574-2 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Lockbox 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) hup://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use (or the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth L. Shinc is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agcacy of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scicatific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. COMMITTEE ON THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE RALPH J. CICERONE (Chair), University of California, Irvine INEZ Y. FUNG, University of California, Berkeley JAMES E. HANSEN, NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York THOMAS R. KARL, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina RICHARD S. LINDZEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMES C. McWILLIAMS, University of California, Los Angeles F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, University of California, Irvine EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle Consultant DANIEL L. ALBRITTON, NOAA/Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado Staff VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Study Director DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Senior Project Assistant ν Foreword This study originated from a White House request to help inform the Administration's ongoing review of U.S. climate change policy. In particular, the written request (Appendix A) asked for the National Academies" "assistance in identifying the areas in the science of climate change where there are the greatest certainties and uncertainties," and "views on whether there are any substantive differences between the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] Reports and the IPCC summaries.” In addition, based on discussions with the Administration, the following specific questions were incorporated into the statement of task for the study: • What is the range of natural variability in climate? • Are concentrations of greenhouse gases and other emissions that contribute to climate change increasing at an acceler· ating rate, and are different greenhouse gases and other emissions increasing at different rates? • How long does it take to reduce the buildup of greenhouse gases and other emissions that contribute to climate change? • What other emissions are contributing factors to climate change (e.g., aerosols, CO, black carbon soot), and what is their relative contribution to climate change? • Do different greenhouse gases and other emissions have different draw down periods? • Are greenhouse gases causing climate change? • Is climate change occurring? If so, how? • Is human activity the cause of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and other emissions that contribute to climate change? • How much of the expected climate change is the consequence of climate feedback processes (e.g., water vapor, clouds, snow packs)? By how much will temperatures change over the next 100 years and where? • What will be the consequences (e.g., extreme weather, health effects) of increases of various magnitudes? • Has science determined whether there is a "safe" level of concentration of greenhouse gases? • What are the substantive differences between the IPCC Reports and the Summaries? • What are the specific areas of science that need to be studied further, in order of priority, to advance our understanding of climate change? The White House asked for a response "as soon as possible" but no later than early Junc-less than one month after submitting its formal request. The National Academies has a mandate arising from its 1863 charter to respond to government requests when asked. In view of the critical nature of this issue, we agreed to undertake this study and to use our own funds to support it. A distinguished committee with broad expertise and diverse perspectives on the scientific issues of climate change was therefore appointed through the National Academies' National Research Council (see Appendix B for biographical information on committee members). In carly May, the committee held a conference call to discuss the specific questions and to prepare for its 2-day meeting (May 21-22, 2001) in Irvine, California. The committee reviewed the 14 questions and deter vii |