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Mean Seasonal and Spatial Variability in Global Surface Air Temperature

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Fig. 1. Locations of the 17986 terrestrial air temperature stations contained in the edited and merged data set. Twelve mean monthly surface air temperatures are available for each station

Fig. 2. Locations of the 6955 oceanic grid boxes for which median monthly air temperature was evaluated. Mapped gridpoint locations are associated with the center of each 2o of latitude by 2o of longitude box

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where is the projected latitude. A relatively dense station network exists in the industrialized countries of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In arid, mountainous, and polar regions, however, low station densities are apparent.

2.2 Oceanic Estimates

Oceanic measurements of surface air temperature were taken from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmospheric Data Set (COADS) for the period 1950-1979 (Fletcher et al., 1983; Slutz et al., 1985; Woodruff, 1985; Woodruff et al., 1987). Within COADS, nearly fifty-million shipboard reports were condensed into 6955 median monthly estimates for 2° of latitude by 2° of longitude boxes (Fig. 2). After a compatibility evaluation (discussed below), these gridded median records were combined with the terrestrial station records. Even coverage is apparent for most of the world's oceans except for much of the Southern and Arctic Oceans.

Median air temperature, such as contained in COADS, can be used as an unbiased estimate of the mean air temperature. Legates (1987), for instance, has demonstrated that, for a global network of stations, median monthly air temperature differed from the mean by less than 0.1°C fifty percent of the time and by less than 0.5 °C ninetyfive percent of the time. Over the oceans, median air temperature, therefore, was assumed to be compatible with the terrestrial mean data and was used as a surrogate for that field.

2.3 Reliability Problems

Calculation of means from the daily minimum and maximum measurements often introduces a bias because of asymmetry in the diurnal variation of air temperature. Schaal and Dale (1977), for example, have demonstrated that mean daily air temperature computed from a single maximum and a single minimum (common practice for much of the world) may produce estimates that are different from the true (time-integrated) daily mean by as much as 1°C. This error also can be accentuated by variations in the time of observation from place to place (Mitchell, 1958: Baker, 1975).

Jones et al. (1986) indicate that many non-firstorder weather stations in the United States take more morning observations than evening obser

vations. This translates into a decrease in the mean daily air temperature below the true value. Mean monthly estimates (averages of the daily means), therefore, will not adequately represent the true values. Jones et al. (1986) suggest transforming monthly averages "to anomaly values [calculated] from a common reference period” (p. 162). While this does not address the problem of removing bias from the reference period, it underscores this inadequacy in the mean field.

Changes in instrumentation, exposure, and station location are additional problems associated with long-term air temperature records (Jones et al., 1986). Many station moves, for instance, were documented in the NCAR data (Spangler and Jenne, 1984)-stations which moved more than 0.1° of latitude or longitude were in fact treated as different stations. Mitchell (1953) determined, however, that instrument and exposure changes have only a small effect on decadal averages at least within the United States. Environmental effects such as urbanization may have a more significant impact although their effects may be considered representative of actual changes in the ambient temperature field.

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Variable thermometer heights are a potential source of discrepancy between the land and ocean measurements. On land, surface air temperature is usually measured shelterheight-approximately four feet (1.22 meters) above the ground. Oceanic measurements of surface air temperature, however, are taken at a shipboard height of twelve meters (Woodruff, 1987). Since the lapse rate usually is small over the oceans (cf., Fleagle et al., 1958), differences between measurements taken at twelve meters and 1.22 meters should be rather small.

No viable means of correcting these biases on a global scale was apparent and, therefore, no correction was made. The existence of such biases in this and other large-scale data sets should be recognized, however, and this presentation of these data should be interpreted accordingly.

3. Grid-Point Interpolation

Station data and oceanic box averages then were interpolated to the nodes of a 0.5° of latitude by 0.5° of longitude lattice. Many procedures have been developed for interpolating grid-point values from irregularly-spaced data (cf., Lam, 1983; Ben

Mean Seasonal and Spatial Variability in Global Surface Air Temperature

nett et al., 1984) although most were designed for interpolation at small spatial scales. At such scales, a flat or planar earth is a reasonable approximation. At large or global scales, however, this assumption is generally inappropriate. Willmott et al. (1985b) have shown, for example, that nontrivial interpolation errors can arise when these cartesian-based (planar) methods are used to interpolate large-scale climate fields. Here then the interpolation procedure must account for the sphericity of the earth.

Legates (1987) evaluated several spectral filtering and local-search procedures for use in interpolating global air temperature and precipitation. He concluded that the spherical adaptation of Shepard's (1968; 1984) numerical approximation method (discussed by Willmott et al., 1985b) was a reliable technique. This procedure, therefore, was used in the interpolations presented here.

An estimate of the temperature field, Í, at any point can be calculated using weighted averages (Willmott et al., 1985b) according to

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where W, is a weight, T, is the observed average air temperature at latitude 0, and longitude, and ▲ T, is a term that accounts for the local spatial gradient. It (AT) also allows for the extrapolation of peaks and valleys beyond the range of the N nearby values of T. A selected number of "nearest neighbors" or closest points, N, is chosen to lessen the calculations. Following Shepard (1968), N ranges from a minimum of four to a maximum of ten- the actual number depends on the spatial distribution of these nearest neighbors.

Shepard's weight, W, can be written W1 = S; (1 + D1)

(3)

where S, is the distance component and D, is the directional component. All geometric calculations (e.g., of the distance and directional components) are made in spherical coordinates to account for the curvature of the earth. While Shepard used a value of 2.0 for ", Legates (1987) determined that 0.95 is optimal for these air temperature data and, therefore, it is used here. Inclusion of the directional weight assures that clusters of nearest neigh

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bors are not given an undue influence. Willmott et al. (1985b) give a more complete discussion of the spherical version of Shepard's algorithm and additional modifications are outlined by Legates (1987).

Using this algorithm, grid-point values of mean monthly surface air temperature were interpolated to the 0.5° by 0.5° lattice. Isotherms then were laced among the gridded temperatures and projected onto the same equal-area projection used for the station locations. Shading between the isotherms is used to enhance pattern recognition.

4. Global Surface Air Temperature
4.1 Annual Mean

Mean annual surface air temperature, as expected,
is generally highest in low latitudes and decreases
toward the poles (Fig. 3). Large regions having
air temperatures greater than 27.5 °C are found in
southern portions of the Sahara Desert and are
especially pronounced over the oceans of Mon-
soon Asia. Over the southern Sahara, clear skies
and small solar zenith angles combine with neg-
ligible evapotranspiration to produce very high
surface air temperatures. High temperatures also
are common in the western equatorial Pacific and
the eastern Indian Oceans; in this instance, due
to solar heating of already warm equatorial waters
(U.S. Navy, 1981). Terrestrial mean air temper-
atures within this region (greater than 27.5°C) are
often cooler than oceanic areas due partially to
relief - elevations commonly exceed 1000 meters.
Elevation also contributes to the south polar re-
gion being cooler than its northern counterpart.

Effects of warm and cold coastal currents can be seen in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Warm currents such as the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and Brazil Current increase the local surface air temperatures as well as the temperature gradients across coastlines. Marked average air temperature differences appear between offshore and onshore points that are just a few kilometers apart. Cold currents (mainly the California, Peru, Benguela, and Canaries Currents) decrease the local surface air temperatures and weaken north-south air temperature gradients.

Altitude also affects annual mean surface air temperature. Latitudinally anomalous low temperatures, for instance, are apparent over the

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Fig. 3. Mean annual surface air temperature. Isotherms are -20.0°C, 0.0 °C, 10.0 °C, 20.0 °C, 25.0°C, and 27.5°C. Areas with mean air temperatures below -20°C are unshaded while areas with mean air temperatures greater than 27.5°C cre dark grey (e.g., over much of the western equatorial Pacific)

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Fig. 4. Temporal standard deviations of the mean monthly surface air temperatures. Isotherms are 0.5 °C. 1.0 °C, 2.0 °C. 4.0 °C. 8.0°C, and 12.0°C. Areas with standard deviations less than 0.5°C are unshaded while areas with standard deviations greater than 12°C are dark grey (e.g., over Siberia)

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D. R. Legates and C. J. Willmott: Mean Seasonal and Spatial Variability in Global Surface Air Temperature

Andes, Himalayas, Alps, and Rocky Mountains as well as over the high plateaus of Tibet, Iran, Ethiopia, and Brazil. Owing to the high-resolution of these data, even relatively small mountain ranges including the Pyrenees and the mountains of eastern Equatorial Africa exhibit their effects on surface air temperature. Mountainous islands such as New Zealand, Tasmania, New Guinea, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, and Sumatra also exhibit nontrivial decreases in average air temperature. Variations in mean annual air temperature are apparent even over small islands including St. Helena and the Cape Verde, Caroline, Fiji, Mariana, Marshall, and Solomon Island chains.

4.2 Average Intra-Annual Variation

Intra-annual variation in monthly surface air temperature is described by the temporal standard deviation of the twelve mean monthly values. The standard deviation field is inversely related to the annual mean field; that is, the largest values usually appear in high latitudes and the minimum is along the equator (Fig. 4). Within much of the intertropical convergence zone, deviations over the oceans are less than 0.5°C while they exceed 12.0°C poleward of the continental interiors of North America, Asia, and Antarctica. Intra-annual variations in surface air temperature generally are larger in the northern hemisphere owing to the greater land area.

The well-known moderating influence of the oceans on surface air temperature also is evident in the standard deviations. This effect is primarily a result of the oceans' 1) larger heat capacity, 2) lower albedo (except at high solar zenith angles), 3) increased latent heat exchange, 4) deeper penetration of sunlight, and 5) vertical mixing of heat. In addition to the large-scale manifestations of this effect (ocean-continent differences), it also is apparent at the small scale. Many small islands such as the Falkland, Canary and Mascarene Islands and New Caledonia, for example. exhibit greater temperature variations than the surrounding ocean.

In mid-latitudes, intra-annual variations in surface air temperature are smaller on the western side of each continent (e.g., Mediterranean Climate) than on the eastern side (e.g., Subtropical Humid Climate). Conversely, tropical climates exhibit smaller intra-annual variations on the eastern

side (e.g., Tropical Wet-and-Dry Climate) than on the western side (e.g., Tropical Desert Climate). Atmospheric circulation patterns and the timing of precipitation (winter maxima for Mediterranean Climate; high-sun maxima for Tropical Wetand-Dry) regulate the release of latent heat and establish these patterns.

While elevation plays an important role in decreasing the surface air temperature, its influence on the intra-annual variation appears to be minimal. The Alps, Atlas, Himalayas, Pyrenees, and the Great Dividing Range (Australia), for example, do not significantly alter the general poleward increase in intra-annual variation. A slight decrease is observed, however, along the frontrange of the Rocky Mountains and along the Sierra Nevada.

Anomalous regions of high intra-annual variation are observed in the southern portions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. These areas occur near the center of the counter-clockwise, oceanic gyres that are prevalent at approximately 30° S. Although these anomalies are intriguing, we have found no physical basis for the enhancement of the seasonal variance in these regions. A possible explanation may be that the mean air temperatures averages for these areas are based on a relatively small number of ship traverses and may not adequately represent the true mean field. Anomalously low intra-annual variations that appear farther south are probably attributable to interpolation since almost no data exist in these areas (Fig. 2).

4.3 Seasonality

Using a lower-resolution subset of the 0.5° by 0.5° field, monthly mean surface air temperature was decomposed into the annual mean (Fig. 3) and the first two annual harmonics (Figs. 5 and 6). This subset is associated with (approximately) a 4° of latitude by 5° of longitude grid in the projected (8) coordinates. All grid-point records were not evaluated because the spatial density of nodes is too high to effectively present in the form of a vector map (cf., Fig. 5).

Sabbagh and Bryson (1962) were among the first to use harmonic decomposition to evaluate a large-scale climate field (i.e., precipitation in Canada). Hsu and Wallace (1976) later used harmonic analysis to evaluate terrestrial precipita

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