Chart 1-2 MEDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION: 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018 One of the most dramatic examples of the changing age distribution of the American population is the shift in the proportion of elderly in relation to the proportion of young persons (chart 1-3). In 1900, 4 percent of the population was age 65 and over, while young persons, age zero to 17 years, made up 40 percent of the population. By 1980, the proportion of 65-plus persons had increased to 11 percent and the proportion of young persons had decreased to 28 percent. U.S. Census Bureau projections indicate that by the year 2030 there will be proportionately more elderly than young persons in the population, with persons under 18 equaling 18 percent and the elderly equaling 23 percent of the population. Chart 1-3 PERCENT OF CHILDREN AND ELDERLY ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS USING MORE OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTIONS THAN THOSE USED BY THE CENSUS BUREAU PROJECT 86.8 MILLION ELDERLY IN 2040 Many variables such as the assumptions made about future death rates greatly affect population projections. A recent analysis by researchers at the National Institute on Aging and University of Southern California (NIA/USC) projects that in 2040 there will be 86.8 million persons over age 65 (table 1-3). This figure represents almost 19 million more elderly persons than projected by the Census Bureau. The analysis was based on a 2 percent annual mortality decline, a more optimistic assumption than that used by Census. According to the NIA/USC projections, the population 85 years and older is projected to number 23.5 million in 2040, twice as many as the standard U.S. Census projection and 10 times the current level. TABLE 1-3.-ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF LIFE EXPECTANCY AND POPULATION AGED 65 AND Source: Guralnik, Jack M., Machiko Yanagishita and Edward L. Schneider. "Projecting the Older Population of the United States: Lessons From the Past and Prospects for the Future." The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, vol. 66, No. 2, 1988. THE 85-PLUS POPULATION IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING AGE GROUPS The 85-plus population is one of the fastest growing age groups in the country. Chart 1-4 displays the growth of this population as a proportion of the elderly population. The 85-plus population is expected to nearly triple in size between 1980 and 2030, and to be five times larger in 2050 than in 1980 (table 1-2). The increase in the 85 and older population is one of the major achievements of improved disease prevention and health care in this century. However, it also has far-reaching implications for public policy because of the high probability of health problems and need for health and social services for this age group. Chart 1-4 PERCENTAGE OF 85-PLUS PERSONS IN THE 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports Life expectancy at age 85 has increased 24 percent since 1960 and is projected to increase another 44 percent by 2040.3 Between 1986 and 2050, the population aged 85 and over is expected to jump from about 1 percent to 5 percent of the total population and from 10 percent to 19 percent of the 65-plus population. More people are also surviving into their 10th and 11th decades. The Bureau of the Census estimates that there were about 25,000 people 100 years or older in 1986 and that there will be over 100,000 by 2000. Because of the increase in the very old population, it is increasingly likely that older persons will themselves have at least one surviving parent. THE ELDERLY POPULATION IS GROWING OLDER With increases in the number of people surviving into the upper age ranges, the elderly population is growing older. In 1980, the young-old (age 65 to 74) outnumbered the oldest-old (age 75 or older) by three to two. By the turn of the century, half of the elder 3 Soldo, Beth and Kenneth G. Manton. "The Graying of America: Demographic Challenges for Socioeconomic Planning." The Journal of Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, vol. 19, No. 4 (1985), pages 227-247. ly population is expected to be age 65 to 74 and half will be age 75 or older (table 1-2). RACE AND ETHNICITY THE NONWHITE AND HISPANIC POPULATIONS HAVE SMALLER PROPORTIONS OF ELDERLY PERSONS THAN THE WHITE POPULATION Today, the nonwhite and Hispanic populations have a smaller proportion of elderly than the white population (table 1-4). In 1987, 13 percent of whites were age 65 and over compared to only 8 percent of nonwhites. The difference is a result of higher fertility for the nonwhite and Hispanic populations than the white population. These proportions are expected to remain relatively stable during the next couple of decades (chart 1-5). However, beginning in the early part of the next century, the proportion of elderly persons is expected to increase at a higher rate for the nonwhite populations than for the white population. Between 1990 and 2030, the white older population will almost double, while the older black population will almost triple. Nevertheless, the percentage of elderly among white non-Hispanics in 2030 (23 percent) will still be higher than the percentage for blacks (18 percent). (NOTE.-Hispanic may be of any race.) ELDERLY WHITES DISPROPORTIONATELY OUTNUMBER ELDERLY NONWHITES AND HISPANICS Whites are disproportionately represented in the elderly population. In 1987, 90 percent of the 65-plus population were white and 10 percent were nonwhite, while in the total population, 85 percent were white, and 15 percent were nonwhite (table 1-4). The minority portion of the elderly population is expected to grow from 10 percent in 1990 to 17 percent in 2030. The total column may differ slightly from the addition of the white, black and other races columns due to slight discrepancy in figures reported by the U.S. Bureau of Census. 2 Includes Asian and Native American persons, which are not shown here as separate population groups. Source: U.S. Bureau of Census. "United States Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and Race: 1980 to 1987." Current Population Reports Series P-25, No. 1020 (March 1988). |