Chart 1-1 displays the country's age distribution in 1987 and gives a glimpse into the future. The "baby-boom" generation (age 22-40), which dominates the picture, is the result of increased fertility after World War II-from 1946 to 1964. This generation will dominate the age distribution of the country well into the next century. In fact, when this group begins to collect Social Security benefits in the early part of the 21st century, it will swell the ranks of the 65-plus generation to the point that at least one in five Americans will be in that age group.

Chart 1-1 also provides a graphic representation (by 5-year age intervals) of the size of the older population in relation to the younger population. In 1986, the population over 55 was 21 percent of the total U.S. population and the elderly population, age 65-plus, was 12 percent.

The common assumption is that today's large numbers and proportion of older persons are caused by increased longevity. In fact, longevity explains only part of the burgeoning of the elderly population. The primary cause is an increase in the annual number of births prior to 1920 and after World War II.1 The aging of the pre1920's group, along with a dramatic decline in the birth rate after the mid-1960's, has contributed to the rise in the median age of the U.S. population from 27.9 in 1970 to 32.8 in 1987. A 5-year rise in the median age in 17 years is an historic demographic event.

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0.2 4 6 8 10 12 14 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, NO. 1018

THE GRAYING OF AMERICA WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NEXT CENTURY WITH THE AGING OF THE BABY BOOM

The projected growth in the older population is expected to raise the median age of the U.S. population from 32.8 in 1987, to 36 by the year 2000, to age 42 by the year 2030, and to 46 years in 2050 (chart 1-2).2 Between 1985 and 2030 the 65-plus population is expected to more than double (table 1-2, chart 1-3). In fact, if current fertility and immigration levels remain stable, the older population will be the only age group to experience significant growth in the next century.

During the next 20 years, the elderly population (65 and older) is expected to grow more slowly than it has in many decades: from 1988 to 2010, it would grow only about 1.2 percent a year as compared with its average annual growth of 2.5 percent during the 1950-87 period. After 2010, however, the number and proportion of elderly would grow very rapidly. By 2020, the elderly population is expected to reach 52 million and by 2030 the full force of the graying of the "baby boom" will be 65.6 million elderly. During this period the proportion of elderly will grow from 13 percent in 2000 to 21.8 percent in 2030. After that time it is expected to slowly rise to 24.5 percent by 2080.

2 See population projections cited in this chapter and the U.S. Census Bureau's middle series.

Chart 1-2

MEDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION:
UNITED STATES, 1950-2050

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports,

Series P-25, No. 1018

One of the most dramatic examples of the changing age distribution of the American population is the shift in the proportion of elderly in relation to the proportion of young persons (chart 1-3). In 1900, 4 percent of the population was age 65 and over, while young persons, age zero to 17 years, made up 40 percent of the population.

By 1980, the proportion of 65-plus persons had increased to 11 percent and the proportion of young persons had decreased to 28 percent. U.S. Census Bureau projections indicate that by the year 2030 there will be proportionately more elderly than young persons in the population, with persons under 18 equaling 18 percent and the elderly equaling 23 percent of the population.

Chart 1-3

PERCENT OF CHILDREN AND ELDERLY
IN THE POPULATION, SELECTED YEARS

ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS USING MORE OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTIONS THAN THOSE USED BY THE CENSUS BUREAU PROJECT 86.8 MILLION ELDERLY IN 2040

Many variables such as the assumptions made about future death rates greatly affect population projections. A recent analysis by researchers at the National Institute on Aging and University of Southern California (NIA/USC) projects that in 2040 there will be 86.8 million persons over age 65 (table 1-3). This figure represents almost 19 million more elderly persons than projected by the Census Bureau. The analysis was based on a 2 percent annual mortality decline, a more optimistic assumption than that used by Census. According to the NIA/USC projections, the population 85 years and older is projected to number 23.5 million in 2040, twice as many as the standard U.S. Census projection and 10 times the current level.