THE GAP IN FEMALE/MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING

Throughout this century, the increase in the number of years an individual can expect to live has been more significant for women than for men (chart 1-9 and tables 1-6 and 1-7). For instance, from 1950 to 1980 life expectancy at birth for the total population advanced by 5.5 years. For women, however, life expectancy at birth advanced by about 6.3 years; men advanced by only 4.4 years. Now, however, the gap in female/male life expectancy appears to be decreasing slightly. Between 1980 and 1987, life expectancy for males at birth increased by 1.5 years, slightly more than the nine-tenths of a year gain for females. The female/male differential in life expectancy at birth was 6.8 years in 1987, as compared to 7.4 years in 1980 and 7.7 years in 1970.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

YEAR

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports,

Series P-25, No. 1018

Year:

1990

2000

2010.

2020

2030

2040

2050

TABLE 1-7.-PROJECTED LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH AND AGE 65 BY SEX: 1990-2050

Source: Spencer, Gregory, U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1988 to 2080." Current Population Reports Series P-25, No. 1018 (January 1989).

Americans who reached their 65th birthdays in 1987 could expect, on average, to live another 16.9 years. Since 1900 life expectancy at age 65 has advanced significantly. Elderly men gained 3.3 years from 1900 to 1987 and elderly women gained 6.5 years. Projections for the future by the Bureau of the Census suggest that elderly men can expect to gain an additional 6.4 years from 1990 to 2050, while women can expect to gain an additional 7 years (table 1-7).

Although race and sex remain important factors in determining life expectancy, the relative importance of these factors has changed during this century. During the 1900-02 period, race was the dominant factor in life expectancy. The survival rates of females and males were about the same but the rates for whites were about twice as high as the rates for blacks and other races. About 4 of every 10 whites survived to age 65 compared to only 2 of every 10 blacks and other races. By 1987, survival rates had improved considerably for all race and sex groups, but the rate for nonwhite females (78 percent), had slightly surpassed that of white males (75 percent), making sex the dominant factor over race.

Less than 10 percent of people living in the 1900-02 period would have survived to age 85 if the mortality rates of that period remained constant. In 1987, survival rates to age 85 had increased enormously for all race-sex groups. For example, about 45 percent of white females born in 1987 were projected to survive to age 85 compared to only 7 percent in 1900-02.

LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR BLACKS IS GROWING

As mentioned above, life expectancy at birth differs according to race, with whites living longer than blacks. In 1987, life expectancy at birth for whites was 5.8 years longer than for blacks. From 1980 to 1987, the black population showed an increase of 1.6 years in life expectancy, compared to 1.2 years for the white population. Improvements in life expectancy at birth for blacks varied between 1980 and 1987. For example, a black child born in 1983 had a life expectancy of 69.6 years, but a black child born in 1986 had a life expectancy of 69.4 years. Life expectancy at birth for blacks in 1987 was 69.7 years. Differences in life expectancy by race at age 65 are smaller in terms of number of years and have been for decades. In 1987, at age 65, blacks could expect to live 15.6 more years, 1.3

years less than whites at that age. However, in relative terms, white life expectancy both at birth and at age 65 is about 8 percent higher than black life expectancy.

WHITE WOMEN LIVE THE LONGEST

A significant hierarchy is evident for life expectancy of males and females by race. White females have the highest life expectancy at birth, followed by black females, white males, then black males. The largest recent gain in life expectancy has been for black females. From 1970 to 1987, black females gained 5.5 years, black males 5.4 years, white males 4.1 years, and white females 3.2 years. (NOTE.-Statistics for life expectancy reported in this section may differ slightly depending on the data source used.)

VETERANS

TWO-THIRDS OF ALL ELDERLY MEN WILL BE VETERANS BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY

Although the total veteran population is expected to decrease over the next five decades, the number and proportion of older veterans is increasing. This will result in considerable strain on the Veterans' Administration health care system as large numbers of veterans age. In 1980, more than one in four of all American men 65 and over (27 percent) were veterans. By the year 2000, close to two-thirds (62 percent) of all elderly males will be veterans and eligible for benefits. This change is temporary, however. The proportion of veterans in the 65-plus male population will actually decrease after the turn of the century-by 2010 only half of elderly males will be veterans; by 2020 slightly over one-third will be vet

erans.

In 1988, there were 6.4 million veterans age 65-plus-23 percent of all veterans. The number of veterans correlates with periods of armed conflict. Chart 1-10 displays the "waves" of veterans according to their period of wartime service. (This chart does not include peacetime veterans.) By the year 2000, there are expected to be nearly 9 million elderly veterans. This number will drop back to 8.1 million in 2010 and 7.7 million in 2020.

Over 95 percent of all veterans are men, but due to the relatively large number of women serving in World War II and the Korean conflict, the number of aged female veterans is expected to grow, doubling by the year 2000 from 1980 levels. However, current projections estimate that only 4.4 percent of aged veterans will be females at the turn of the century. After the year 2000, the number of female veterans is expected to decrease temporarily only to increase steadily again after 2015 as women who served during the Vietnam war and post-Vietnam era reach older age.

The number and proportion of veterans age 75-plus are also expected to increase. Today, 20 percent of all elderly veterans are age 75 and over. By 2000, 43 percent will be in this age group. This proportion is expected to increase gradually so that by 2030, 62 percent of all older veterans and 25 percent of all veterans will be 75plus.

Source: Veterans Administration, "Veteran Population: September, 1988"

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION AND MOBILITY

ALMOST HALF OF THE COUNTRY'S ELDERLY LIVE IN EIGHT STATES In 1987, almost half of the country's older population, 14.6 million people, lived in eight States: California, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan. Each of these States had over 1 million persons age 65-plus (table 1-8). In comparison, some States had very small older populations. Alaska, for instance, had the smallest number of elderly persons in 1987 (19,000), about 4 percent of its total population. However, Alaska, along with Nevada, also experienced the largest percent increase— over 50 percent-in its elderly populations in the last decade.

Persons 65-plus constituted 13 percent or more of the total population in 18 States in 1987: Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Florida has the largest proportion of residents aged 65-plus. In fact, the proportion of elderly in Florida-17.8 percent-is close to the proportion expected nationally in the year 2020. Florida is also the Nation's oldest State, with a median age of 36.3 in 1987 as compared with the youngest State, Utah, with a median age of 25.5 (table 1-9).

TABLE 1-8.-RANK ORDER OF STATES BY SELECTED POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 65PLUS POPULATION: 1987

Note. All rankings in this table are derived from unrounded numbers and percentages.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. "State Population and Household Estimates, With Age, Sex and Components of Change: 1981-1987." Current Population Reports Series P-25, No. 1024 (May 1988).