TABLE 7-3.-AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF ELDERLY POPULATION BY AGE, FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES: 1985 TO 2005 AND 2005 TO 2025 Source: Torrey, Barbara Boyle, Kevin G. Kinsella, and Cynthia M. Taueber, U.S. Bureau of the Census. "An Aging World." SOURCE: Torrey, Barbara Boyle, Kevin G. Kinsella, and Cynthia M. Taueber, U.S. Bureau of the Census. "An Aging World" THE OLDEST-OLD ARE THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT OF THE ELDERLY POPULATION IN MANY COUNTRIES DURING THE NEXT 20 YEARS. THE U.S. GROWTH RATE IN THE 75 AND OVER POPULATION WILL BE AMONG THE MOST RAPID IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD During the next 40 years, the fastest growth rate in the 75 years and older population in the developed world will occur in Japan. The United States and Canada will also experience a rapid growth in the 75 and over population during this period. On the other hand, Western Europe will experience a relatively slow growth rate in the oldest-old population. As with the young-elderly, the average annual growth rates for the 75-plus populations in many developing countries will be well above the rates in developed countries (table 7-3 and chart 7-4). Chart 7-4 AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF POPULATION AGE 75 AND OLDER SOURCE: Torrey, Barbara Boyle, Kevin G. Kinsella, and Cynthia M. Taueber, U.S. Bureau of the Census. "An Aging World" LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH IN THE UNITED STATES IS ABOUT The iongest life expectancy at birth in 1985 was in Japan-77.1 years (table 7-4). Life expectancy in the United States-74.6 years-was about average for the developed world but was 2.5 years shorter than Japan. The difference in life expectancy between the United States and Japan has more to do with infant mortality than aging. Life expectancy at age 65 is about the same in Japan and the United States-6 months longer for Japanese males and 6 months shorter for Japanese females-but the infant mortality rate in Japan is only half the U.S. rate.2 In nearly all countries females live longer than males. The difference between male and female life expectancy in the United States is one of the most extreme in the world-second only to France. In developing countries, the gap between male and female life expectancies typically is smaller than in the developed world. TABLE 7-4.-LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH AND DIFFERENCES BY SEX FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES: Source: Torrey, Barbara Boyle, Kevin G. Kinsella, and Cynthia M. Taueber, U.S. Bureau of the Census. "An Aging World." THE TOTAL U.S. SUPPORT RATIO IN 1985 WAS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE DEVELOPED WORLD AND WAS LOWER THAN THE RATIO IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. BY 2025 THE TOTAL U.S. RATIO IS EXPECTED TO BE AMONG THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD The total support ratio is the ratio of children and older persons to working-age adults.3 In 1985, developing countries had the highest total support ratios because of high proportions of children in their populations (table 7-5). India and Mexico, for example, had more than one "dependent" person in the population for each working-age adult. În the developing world, 1985 total support ratios were low because of low birth rates in recent years and, as yet, relatively small elderly populations. By 2025, this pattern will be reversed. The developed nations will have higher total support ratios than developing countries, primarily because of the rise in the proportion of elderly in the populations of the developed countries and the large projected declines in birth rates in developing countries. Japan, Canada, and the United States will have the highest total support ratios. Changes in support ratios for developed countries between 1985 and 2025 will generally be modest, but the age composition in these countries will undergo dramatic changes. For example, there were 2 Population Reference Bureau, Inc. 1987 World Population Data Sheet. April 1987, 3 Haupt, Arthur and Thomas T. Kane, Population Reference Bureau, Inc. Population Handbook, 1978. Although the U.S. Bureau of the Census used ages 0-19 and 65+ to define youth and elderly populations for "An Aging World," alternative ages can be used. 21 elderly persons and 50 children in the United States for every 100 persons of working age (20-64) in 1985. By 2025, there will be an additional 14 elderly persons but 7 fewer children making up the support ratio (charts 7-5 and 7-6). TABLE 7-5.-SUPPORT RATIOS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES: 1985 AND 2025 Source: Torrey, Barbara Boyle, Kevin G. Kinsella, and Cynthia M. Taueber, U.S. Bureau of the Census. "An Aging World." Chart 7-5 ELDERLY SUPPORT RATIO (POPULATION AGE 65+/POPULATION 20-64) SOURCE: Torrey, Barbara Boyle, Kevin G. Kinsella, and Cynthia M. Taueber, U.S. Bureau of the Census. "An Aging World" Chart 7-6 CHANGE IN TOTAL, ELDERLY, AND YOUTH SUPPORT RATIOS BETWEEN 1985 AND 2025, SOURCE: Torrey, Barbara Boyle, Kevin G. Kinsella, and Cynthia M. Taueber, U.S. Bureau of the Census. "An Aging World" EXPLANATION OF CHART 7-6 Between 1985 and 2025, the elderly (65+) support ratio in Italy will increase by 12 persons (per 100 persons 20-64 years of age) while the youth (0-19 years) support ratio will decrease by 7 persons (per 100 persons 20-64 years of age). The resulting change in the total support ratio for Italy will be a net increase of 5 persons between 1985 and 2025. During the same period in Mexico, the elderly support ratio will increase by 5 persons, but the youth support ratio will decrease by 70 persons. Thus, the total support ratio in Mexico between 1985 and 2025 will decline by 65 persons (per 100 persons 20-64 years of age). All countries shown in chart 7-6 will experience relative increases in their elderly populations and decreases in their youth populations between 1985 and 2025. The net change in their total support ratio (increase or decrease) is determined by the size of change in their elderly and youth support ratios. THE UNITED STATES HAS ONE OF THE OLDEST ELDERLY POPULATIONS IN THE WORLD, A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 2025. BY CONTRAST, JAPAN NOW HAS ONE OF THE YOUNGEST ELDERLY POPULATIONS IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD BUT WILL HAVE ONE OF THE OLDEST BY 2025 The United States has an unusually high proportion of the very old in its elderly population, and this proportion is expected to increase by 2025 (chart 7-7). Today, West Germany and France have larger proportions of the very old in their elderly populations, but by 2025, the United States will have a higher proportion of very old than these countries. Today, Japan's older population is unusually |