Chart 1-5 GROWTH IN THE ELDERLY BLACK Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, SEX RATIOS OLDER WOMEN OUTNUMBER OLDER MEN The ratio of females to males varies dramatically with age. In the under-20 age group, there were 35 million females versus 36 million males in 1987. The 30-to-34 year age group was evenly balanced at about 11 million each. But in the 65-plus age group, there were 18 million women and 12 million men. Elderly women now outnumber elderly men three to two, a considerable change from 1960 when the ratio of elderly females to elderly males was six to five. This disparity becomes more marked in the upper age ranges. In 1987, there were 83 men between 65 and 69 years for every 100 women in that same age group. Among those 85 and over, there were only 39 men for every 100 women (chart 1-6). These statistics reflect the fact that, on the average, women live longer than men and, therefore, are more likely to end up living alone. Because of these factors, elderly women also average a longer period of retirement than elderly men. AGE Chart 1-6 NUMBER OF MEN PER 100 WOMEN BY ELDERLY Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, SUPPORT RATIOS THE RATIO OF ELDERLY TO WORKING AGE PERSONS IS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY The fact that people are living longer and families are having fewer children is changing the shape of the "elderly support ratio" (the number of 65-plus persons to persons of working age, 18 to 64 years). The average family with children in the early 1900's had four children. Today the average has fewer than two children. This factor, combined with a 27-year increase in life expectancy since 1900 has increased the ratio of elderly persons compared to persons of working age. In 1900, there were about 7 elderly persons for every 100 persons of working age. In 1990, the ratio will be about 20 elderly persons per 100 of working age. By 2020, the ratio will rise to about 29 per 100 and is expected to increase rapidly to 38 per 100 by 2030 (chart 1-7 and table 1-5). 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, TABLE 1-5.-YOUNG, ELDERLY, AND TOTAL SUPPORT RATIOS: 1900-2080 Source: Taueber, Cynthia M., U.S. Bureau of the Census. "America in Transition: An Aging Society." Current Population Reports Series P-23, No. 128 (September 1983). Spencer, Gregory, Ú.S. Bureau of the Census. "Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1988 to 2080." Current Population Reports Series P-25, No. 1018 (January 1989). The support ratio is important in economic terms because the working population can be thought of as supporting nonworking age groups. However, a "support" or dependency ratio is a crude measure since many younger and older persons are in the labor force and not dependent while many persons of labor force age may not be working. In addition, dramatic changes in fertility rates could shift projections. Although the total support ratio (young and old combined) is expected to increase in the next century, it has declined substantially since 1900. This suggests that fewer economic demands are currently placed on working age Americans for supporting the young and the old. From a public policy standpoint, however, the decline in the total support ratio, caused by a large decline in the number of children, masks the rise in the elderly support ratio. This is an important distinction because it is primarily publicly funded programs which serve the elderly while mostly private (i.e., family) funds are directed toward support of the young. Nonetheless, the increasing demands on public programs caused by a burgeoning elderly population are, in large part, offset by declining demands on private funds for supporting children. LIFE EXPECTANCY THE UPWARD TREND IN LIFE EXPECTANCY IS CONTINUING The average expectation of life at birth was at a record high in 1987 (chart 1-8). This increase continues a remarkable upward trend in life expectancy since the beginning of the century. The greatest gains occurred during the first half of the century largely due to dramatic reductions in deaths from infectious disease. A baby born in 1900 could expect to live an average of 47.3 years, while a baby born in 1987 could expect to live 74.7 years (table 1-6). Although in the early part of this century, increases in life expectancy were due to decreases in deaths of infants and children, most of the increasing life expectancy since 1970 has been due to decreased mortality among the middle-aged and elderly population. Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Monthly Vital TABLE 1-6.-LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH AND AGE 65 BY RACE AND SEX: 1900-87 Source: 1987 data: National Center for Health Statistics. "Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: United States, 1987." Monthly Vital Statistics Report, vol. 36, No. 13 (July 23, 1988) and unpublished data. 1900-80 data: National Center for Health Statistics, Health, United States, 1987. DHHS Pub. No. (PHS) 88-1232, Washington: Department of Health and Human Services. March 1988. |