nationally (through the use of incentive-based instruments) and internationally (through the opportunity for joint implementation). Such actions are readily responsive to new information generated by robust research. The opportunity for international flexibility via joint implementation is estimated to reduce the global costs of emission limits substantially, while offering developing countries an opportunity to earn needed income. • Integrated. The Action Plan is designed to be part of a global effort, engaging all nations while dynamically reflecting each nation's unique circumstances. These concepts are reflected in the actions enumerated in the following chapters on adaptation, mitigation, research, and international activities. MITIGATION The United States is pursuing numerous actions to mitigate the risk of potential climate change by limiting net greenhouse gas emissions. The sum total of the effects of these measures cannot be accurately quantified because of uncertainties about technology, policy effects, prices, and baseline economic growth rates. The United States estimates that by the year 2000, these actions will reduce domestic emissions by 125-200 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (in terms of contribution to radiative forcing), or between 7 and 11 percent of 1990 levels, implying a projected net emission of carbon equivalent in 2000 of only 1.4 to 6 percent above 1990 levels. ADAPTATION The United States is engaged in a variety of efforts to facilitate natural and societal adjustment to the environmental, social, and economic implications of potential climate change and response strategies. While many of these programs are still being developed, several are already under way. Areas of particular focus include sec tors of the economy that deal with water resources, natural systems, forests, and agriculture. RESEARCH The United States is extremely active in promoting research essential to the understanding of the science, social dynamics, and economic implications of climate change and response strategies. Toward this end, the United States will have spent more than $2.7 billion for global change research for the three fiscal years 1990-92, and the enacted fiscal year 1993 budget provides $9.3 billion for global climate change research— an increase of $226 million (20 percent) over the fiscal year 1992 level. INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES During the next century, developing countries and other countries with economies in transition to market economies will be the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions. The United States strongly supports technology cooperation with these countries. Such cooperation should address technology needs both for hardware and for technical knowledge and capability. It includes in addition to "technology transfer" in the traditional sense of the phrase-such priority concerns as technology needs assessment, technology and practices development, technical assistance, training, and institution or capacity building. In calling for a cooperative process, the United States recognizes that the successful transfer of knowledge, know-how, or equipment depends on a two-way relationship based on mutual interests and benefits. Such a process also recognizes and relies heavily on the creativity and dynamism of the private sector. However, it is not possible yet to assess the net effect of this international effort either on greenhouse gas emission reductions or on improvements in the capacity of other nations to adapt to the potential impacts of climate change. Scientific Background As the actions described in this Plan ultimately depend on our understanding of the science of climate and climate change, it is useful to review this fundamental information. For some time, the scientific community has warned of the potential for human activities to contribute to global climate change, while recognizing that there is still much uncertainty surrounding this issue. However, in spite of the uncertainties, a broad international consensus regarding the science of the climate system and climate change has been developed over the past several years. As shown in Figure 1, solar radiation, trapped by gases in the atmosphere, acts to warm the earth. These Figure 1 gases, known as greenhouse gases, include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH), nitrous oxide (N,O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and ozone (O). While water vapor has the largest "greenhouse effect," on a global scale its concentrations are not directly affected by human activities. Although, with the exception of CFCs, all of these gases occur naturally, human activities have contributed significantly to increases in these atmospheric concentrations. Generally accepted theory indicates that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases most likely will ultimately raise atmospheric and ocean temperatures and will alter their associated circulation and weather pat terns. Climate models predict that equilibrium change in the average temperature of the globe's atmosphere as a consequence of a doubling of CO, or its equivalent is unlikely to lie outside of the range of 1.5°-4.5°C (2.7°-8.1°F), with a best estimate, based on model results and taking into account the observed climate record, of 2.5°C (4.5°F). It is expected that actual realized temperatures would lag by several years behind the equilibrium value. Sea level rise associated with such doubling has been estimated to range between a few centimeters and one meter (several inches to approximately three feet), with a best estimate of approximately 20 cm (7.9 in.) by 2030. These analyses are admittedly imprecise, with no adjustments yet made for known compounding factors, such as the cooling effects of aerosols, changes in stratospheric ozone, or the cooling and warming effects of changing concentrations of CFCs. A further complicating factor in interpreting the data is that the warm ing predicted by the models over recent years, while within the range of that observed, is also about the same magnitude as that of natural variability, making it impossible to definitively determine whether humaninduced climate change is yet occurring. Indeed, most of the observed warming of the past hundred years occurred in the first half of this century-before increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would have taken effect. The best scientific information indicates that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase as a result of human activities, global climate will eventually change. However, current analyses are unable to predict with confidence the timing, magnitude, or regional distribution of such change. Therefore, evaluating the specific costs of potential actions, as well as the possible benefits of taking steps to control atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Framework Convention on Climate Change The issue of climate change has moved steadily from the purely scientific realm into the policy arena over the last several years. In 1988, the United Nations General Assembly began to take a significant interest in the issue, adopting a resolution that recognized climate change as "a common concern of mankind." Also, in 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the science, impacts, and potential response options to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The IPCC's First Assessment Report (1990) set the stage for the Second World Climate Conference in November 1990, whose ministerial declaration called for negotiations on a framework convention. The United Nations took up the climate issue again in 1989, and in 1990, when it formally established the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) to develop a framework convention on climate change, and set its first meeting to be in Chantilly, Virginia, in February 1991. The Convention, negotiated over a period of nearly two years, was opened for signature in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. As of December 1992, it had been signed by 157 countries (including the United States) and one regional economic integration organization, and was ratified by six countries (of which the United States was the fourth). The Convention represents a delicate balance of many interests. It embodies a comprehensive approach embracing all greenhouse gases and their sources and sinks, and promotes action to modify net emission trends of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. It supports an action-oriented approach to net emission reductions that takes into account specific national circumstances. It provides the basis for assessing the impacts and effectiveness of different national responses in light of existing scientific and economic information and new developments. ARTICLE 4: COMMITMENTS 1. All parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives, and circumstances, shall: (a) Develop, periodically update, publish, and make available to the Conference of the Parties, in accordance with Article 12, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties; (b) Formulate, implement, publish, and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change; (c) Promote and cooperate in the development, application, and diffusion, including transfer, of technologies, practices, and processes that control, reduce, or prevent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol in all relevant sectors, including the energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry, and waste management sectors; (d) Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, including biomass, forests, and oceans, as well as other terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems; (e) Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources, and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods; (f) Take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic, and environmental policies and actions, and employ appropriate methods, for example, impact assessments, formulated and determined nationally, with a view to minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health, and on the quality of the environment, of projects or measures undertaken by them to mitigate or adapt to climate change; (g) Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, technical, socioeconomic, and other research, systematic observation and development of data archives related to the climate system and intended to further the understanding and to reduce or eliminate the remaining uncertainties regarding the causes, effects, magnitude, and timing of climate change and the economic and social consequences of various response strategies; (h) Promote and cooperate in the full, open, and prompt exchange of relevant scientific, technological, technical, socioeconomic, and legal information related to the climate system and climate change, and to the economic and social consequences of various response strategies; (i) Promote and cooperate in education, training, and public awareness related to climate change and encourage the widest participation in this process, including that of nongovernmental organizations; and (j) Communicate to the Conference of the Parties information related to implementation, in accordance with Article 12. 2. The developed country Parties and other Parties included in annex I commit themselves specifically as provided for in the following: (a) Each of these Parties shall adopt national' policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs. These policies and measures will demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead in modifying longer-term trends in anthropogenic emissions consistent with the objective of the Convention, recognizing that the return by the end of the present decade to earlier levels of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol would contribute to such modification, and taking into account the differences in these Parties' starting points and approaches, economic structures, and resource bases, the need to maintain strong and sustainable economic growth, available technologies and other individual circumstances, as well as the need for equitable and appropriate contributions by each of these Parties to the global effort regarding that objective. These Parties may implement such policies and measures jointly with other Parties and may assist other Parties in contributing to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and, in particular, that of this subparagraph; 'This includes policies and measures adopted by regional economic integration organizations. ARTICLE 4: COMMITMENTS (continued) (b) In order to promote progress to this end, each of these Parties shall communicate, within six months of the entry into force of the Convention for it and periodically thereafter, and in accordance with Article 12, detailed information on its policies and measures referred to in subparagraph (a), above, as well as on its resulting projected anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol for the period referred to in subparagraph (a), with the aim of returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels these anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. This information will be reviewed by the Conference of the Parties, at its first session and periodically thereafter, in accordance with Article 7; (c) Calculations of emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases for the purposes of subparagraph (b) above should take into account the best available scientific knowledge, including the effective capacity of sinks and the respective contributions of such gases to climate change. The Conference of the Parties shall consider and agree on methodologies for these calculations at its first session and review them regularly thereafter; (d) The Conference of the Parties shall, at its first session, review the adequacy of subparagraphs (a) and (b) above. Such review shall be carried out in the light of the best available scientific information and assessment on climate change and its impacts, as well as relevant technical, social, and economic information. Based on this review, the Conference of the Parties shall take appropriate action, which may include the adoption of amendments to the commitments in subparagraphs (a) and (b) above. The Conference of the Parties, at its first session, shall also take decisions regarding criteria for joint implementation, as indicated in subparagraph (a) above. A second review of subparagraphs (a) and (b) shall take place not later than 31 December 1998, and thereafter at regular intervals determined by the Conference of the Parties, until the objective of the Convention is met; (e) Each of these Parties shall: (i) coordinate as appropriate with other such Parties, relevant economic and administrative instruments developed to achieve the objective of the Convention; and (ii) identify and periodically review its own policies and practices which encourage activities that lead to greater levels of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol than would otherwise occur; The Conference of the Parties shall review, not later than 31 December 1998, available information with a view to taking decisions regarding such amendments to the lists in Annexes I and II as may be appropriate, with the approval of the Party concerned.... ARTICLE 12: COMMUNICATION OF INFORMATION RELATED TO IMPLEMENTATION 1. In accordance with Article 4, paragraph 1, each Party shall communicate to the Conference of the Parties, through the secretariat, the following elements of information: (a) A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, to the extent its capacities permit, using comparable methodologies to be promoted and agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties; (b) A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention; and (c) Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication, including, if feasible, material relevant for calculations of global emission trends. 2. Each developed country Party and each other Party included in annex I shall incorporate in its communication the following elements of information: (a) A detailed description of the policies and measures that it has adopted to implement its commitment under Article 4, paragraphs 2 (a) and 2 (b); and (b) A specific estimate of the effects that the policies and measures referred to in subparagraph (a) immediately above will have on anthropogenic emissions by its sources and removal by its sinks of greenhouse gases during the period referred to in Article 4, paragraph 2 (a). 3. In addition, each developed country Party and each other developed Party included in annex II shall incorporate details of measures taken in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 3, 4, and 5. |