Federal Exercises Overall

Counterterrorist exercises generally focus on either crisis management or consequence management. While the number of both types of exercises increased, consequence management exercises rose dramatically. Crisis management exercises increased from 30 to 55 (83 percent), while consequence management exercises rose from 2 to 28 (1,400 percent) over the 3-year period. Initially, very few exercises focused on both crisis and consequence management as there were none in the first year and only two in the second year. In a major terrorist incident without adequate threat warning, crisis management and consequence management would need to occur simultaneously. By the third year, however, there were 33 exercises that included both crisis management and consequence management. Of these 33, most of them (26 exercises) were tabletop exercises sponsored by DOD under the Domestic Preparedness Program.

Crisis management exercises include both international and domestic scenarios. Each year, DOD and DOE sponsor several international interagency field exercises. The State Department uses these exercises to practice its leadership role in international terrorist incidents. Domestic crisis management exercises are led by law enforcement agencies and primarily provide training to prepare for crisis response. The FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF) have crisis management exercise programs that periodically test crisis response teams and include field office personnel. The USSS conducts many field exercises related to its mission to protect the President and other key officials and to ensure continuity of operations at the White House.

Consequence management exercises generally had domestic scenarios.2 FEMA sponsored a series of interagency tabletop exercises that focused on interagency and intergovernmental issues. Other federal agencies, such as DOD and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), have also sponsored consequence management exercises.

2While there have been some DOD and State Department sponsored consequence management exercises with international scenarios, we did not include them in our review.

Federal Exercises Overall

Federal counterterrorist exercises included both conventional and WMD scenarios to prepare their personnel for a wide variety of possible situations. Exercises with both conventional and WMD scenarios increased more than 250 percent over the 3-year period. The ratio of conventional scenarios to WMD scenarios was roughly the same (about 2.5) in the third year as in the first year." DOD, FEMA, FBI, and USSS led the most exercises that included WMD scenarios. All of the 26 Domestic Preparedness Program exercises that were conducted in the third year had WMD scenarios.

Although the number of exercises with WMD is more than double those with conventional scenarios, conventional terrorist incidents are more likely to occur. According to intelligence agencies, conventional explosives and firearms continue to be the weapons of choice for terrorists. Terrorists are less likely to use WMD agents, in part, because they are more difficult to obtain, develop, and weaponize or otherwise disseminate. However, the likelihood that terrorists may use chemical and biological materials may increase over the next decade, according to intelligence agencies. DOD led the most WMD exercises (89 exercises), and a high percentage (92 percent) of the exercises that it led had WMD scenarios. DOD officials said that they need to train against the most challenging threat (i.e., WMD) and that such training also prepares their personnel for less challenging conventional threats. Another factor in the relatively high number of exercises with WMD scenarios is the strong emphasis on WMD voiced by the President (in PDDs) and the Congress (in legislation and committee reports).

To some extent the number of WMD scenarios is overstated because we classified exercises that had both WMD and conventional scenarios as WMD exercises.

Federal Exercises Overall

Federal agencies had scenarios that used all three types of WMD (chemical, biological, and nuclear) in their counterterrorism exercieses during the 3-year period. Chemical agents, such as sarin, were the most common and were included in 59 (42 percent) of the WMD exercises. All of the 26 Domestic Preparedness Program exercises included chemical agents. Biological agents, such as anthrax, were less common and were included in 18 (13 percent) of the WMD exercises. Nuclear threats (including radiological), such as uranium bombs and plutonium, were included in 21 (15 percent) of the exercises.

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In addition, of the 139 WMD exercises, 41 (29 percent) including more than 1 type of WMD in the scenario.1 An example of a multiple WMD scenario was a DOD exercise where terrorists teams were at two locations, one team with a chemical weapon and one team with a biological weapon. While DOD officials acknowledged that such a multiple WMD scenario was not likely, they said each individual team in the exercise focused on its individual target, so the training they received at the tactical level was the same as in a single WMD scenario.

To some extent the number of multiple WMD scenarios is overstated because we included exercises in that category if the data indicated they were WMD, but we could not determine the exact type of agent in the scenario.