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Table 2.-Allowances for miscellaneous items in the 1935 WPA budget, all cities combined, allocated to family members

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to the 4 persons in the family; each child was given an allowance for movies and incidentals, and the 13year-old boy was charged with a small amount for club memberships and one-fifth of the newspaper cost; the rest of the recreation allowance was divided equally between the parents, Medical expenses, contributions, and the household supplies were prorated on a per capita basis. Expenses for personal care were prorated as nearly as possible in accordance with allowances in the quantity budget published in connection with the study of intercity differences in cost of living.' Taxes were assumed to be chargeable in the same proportion as all other miscellaneous expenses combined.

Miscellaneous expenses of persons not members of the WPA family were budgeted for in accordance with their age, sex, and assumed activities, on a scale commensurate with allowances of a similar kind made for family members in the WPA budget. From this schedule of amounts, a requirement scale was constructed, using the amount for the employed man as 1.00. This scale was then adopted for the purpose of estimating the cost of requirements in the "miscellaneous" category for the different classes of persons at the time of the surveys.

In St. Louis on June 15, 1941, the WPA budget for "miscellaneous" items for the 4-person family was $326.60. The family's total number of requirement units of this category, according to the scale adopted, is 2.44.

Works Progress Administration, Quantity Budgets for Basic Maintenance and Emergency Standards of Living (Division of Social Research Bulletin No. 21), table III, parts 1 and 2, p. 26.

4.64 4.91

5.84

The value of 1.00 ($133.85) was obtained by dividing the WPA family "miscellaneous items" budget of $326.60 by 2.44. The amounts budgeted for miscellaneous items for each class of persons in St. Louis were obtained by multiplying $133.85 by the miscellaneous items requirement unit of the class. The relative for an unemployed man over age 65, for example, is 0.70; his budget in this category, therefore, was $133.85 multiplied by 0.70, or $93.70.

Joint expenses.-The categories designated as "joint expenses" are housing; ice, fuel, and electricity; and furniture and furnishings. The cost of requirements for "joint expenses" has been distributed on a per capita basis without regard to the age or sex of the family members.

To estimate the variation in per capita joint expenses for families larger or smaller than the WPA 4

person family, assumptions were made as to the number of persons per room and cost of the rooms. The point of reference was the WPA 4person family in a 4.5-room dwelling at the cost shown in the WPA maintenance budget for the survey area and date under consideration. Regardless of their use, the joint expense attributable to each of the various rooms in the dwelling was assumed to be the same (joint expense divided by 4.5 rooms for the WPA 4-person family).

10

With the addition or subtraction of one family member, half of the allowance per room for joint expense was added to or subtracted from the 4person allowance, except that the amount allowed for a person living alone was arbitrarily taken as twothirds of the 2-person budget. The cost per person in the 4-person family ($107.82 in St. Louis on June 15, 1941) was taken as 1.00 and a scale constructed (table 3). To obtain the amounts per person to be budgeted for joint expenses in families in the other three survey areas, the St. Louis scale was applied to the per capita joint expenses in the WPA budgets

10 The allowances for rent, fuel, electricity, furniture, and furnishings are all assumed to vary in the same ratio with addition or subtraction of rooms, but the same assumption cannot be made about ice. Its inclusion among joint expenses therefore constitutes an inconsistency. The amount involved, however, is small and does not significantly affect the results.

Table 3.-Joint expenses at the WPA maintenance level and relative per capita scale, by size of family, St. Louis, June 15, 1941

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Table 4.-Budgets for persons of differing age, sex, and activity, by size of household, St. Louis, June 15, 1941

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$302 340 377

for the other survey areas and dates under consideration.

Combining the amounts for the several categories according to family composition.-The expenses of each person living in families of 12 different sizes were obtained by adding the amounts budgeted for food, clothing, miscellaneous items, and joint expenses. For example, the budgets of an unemployed man over age 65 living with 1 other person and those of a similar individual living in a family of 5 are as follows:

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In a 2-per- In a 5-person family son family

Item

Total.

Food.

Clothing

Miscellaneous.

Joint expense..

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359

The total amounts of the budgets for persons in 40 different age, sex, and employment classifications, and in 12 different size-of-family classifications in St. Louis, June 15, 1941, are given in table 4. This table was used as a work sheet in making the budget estimate for each beneficiary group in St. Louis. Corresponding tables were prepared for each of the other three survey areas for use in budgeting for the beneficiary groups covered by the surveys in those areas.

To compute family or sub-family budgets, the appropriate size of family was selected from table 4, and the amounts budgeted for each individual in the family or sub-family were added. For example, an aged couple, both unemployed, living by themselves in St. Louis during the survey year ending October-November 1941, would presumably have lived at a maintenance level during the survey year if their living had cost approximately $842-$431 for the man and $411 for his wife. The same couple living in a 5-person household would have required only $649 for the same level of living, because of the saving in food and housing expenses. The budgets

for two sub-families of specified composition, living as a joint household,

were computed as follows:

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Unemployed man, aged 65 or over.

334

Housewife, aged 65 or over

315

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Conclusion

The employment of the techniques described has made possible a study of the economic security of old-age and survivors insurance beneficiaries interviewed in 1941-42. The findings will be published in a later issue of the BULLETIN. The techniques themselves are not new. Several studies have been made in which comparison of the level of living of families of varying composition has been made possible by the use of scales indicating the relative consumption requirements of persons of differing age, sex, and activity. So far as is known to the authors, however, at least some of the scales in such studies have been far less detailed. Miscellaneous expenditures generally have been prorated merely on a per capita basis. The scale for adjusting the amount of the rent allowance for families of varying size is probably one of many efforts in an area about which little has been published. As is the case with all research of this nature, however, the resulting scale is only tentatively

offered until a better one can be found
to take its place.

Family income has likewise been
compared with a standard budget to
evaluate the adequacy of income, par-
ticularly in connection with minimum
wage legislation and other wage
negotiations. The standard budgets
used in such cases, however, were for
families of a given composition, such
as an employed man, his wife at home,
a girl aged 8, and a boy aged 13. To
analyze the security of the 3,529
groups of old-age and survivors insur-
ance beneficiaries whose resources
were being evaluated, hundreds of dif-
ferent budgets were quickly con-
structed.

Thus by combining two tested pro-
cedures, incomes of families of varied
composition have been compared with
maintenance-level budgets con-

structed especially for each family.
The method used is practical at any
time, although advances in knowledge
may impel adoption of different scales
or a different basic budget. It should
be borne in mind that the scales
adopted for modifying the basic

Age Distribution of Workers in Industries
Under Old-Age and Survivors Insurance

By George H. Trafton *

IN RECENT NEGOTIATIONS with management, organized labor has increasingly stressed proposals for health, welfare, and retirement funds. By 1946, provisions of this kind were already in effect in a few industries, and in that year the creation of an industry-wide fund became a critical issue in the labor-management dispute in the coal industry. The agreement signed in May by the Secretary of the Interior and the president of the United Mine Workers provides for both a welfare and retirement fund and a medical and hospital fund for the entire bituminous industry. A similar agreement, setting up a health and welfare fund for workers in the anthracitemining industry, was signed in June. Labor organizations in other industries, including steel, have indicated that they will soon ask that similar funds be established for the protection of their members.

*Bureau of Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, Analysis Division.

In planning the benefit provisions and estimating the probable disbursements of an industry health and retirement fund, the age distribution of the workers employed in the industry will need to be considered. Some indication of the extent of industry differences in age composition is provided by tabulations of sample data derived from the wage records maintained by the Social Security Administration under old-age and survivors insurance. The most recent year for which such tabulated data are now available is 1944.

The industry data for 1944 have been obtained from a 1-percent sample of all workers receiving wages in that year in employments covered by the insurance system. Each worker in the sample was classified in the

1 Covered employment includes any services performed by a worker for an employer within the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, or on or in connection with an American vessel, with

budget in accordance with family composition should be appropriate to the level of living described by the budget.

New information on consumption habits or scientifically determined requirements may become available which will suggest that relationships different from those used for this analysis exist between the costs of requirements of one type of individual and those of another at a maintenance level. Moreover, information of this sort already available is being utilized in making new standard budgets which could be used as norms. Such changes would not affect the usefulness of the method described. If the budget has not been priced in the cities in which the families to be studied live, one or two steps not required in the present analysis would be necessary. The content of the budget might need adjusting to take into consideration differences in climate or market availability, and an index of intercity differences in the cost of living would have to be employed.

industry group, or one of the industry groups, in which he worked in his last calendar quarter with wage credits in 1944, as indicated by employer reports of taxable wage payments. Industry groups were determined on the basis of industry information obtained from employers between the fall of 1942 and the spring of 1945. In the tabulations, each worker has been classified in only one industry group even though he may have worked in more than one during the year. Usually, the industry group indicated represents the worker's last covered employment in 1944.

The basic punch cards contain industry codes permitting a much more detailed grouping by industry than that shown in the tables accompany

certain exceptions. The major exclusions are self-employment, agricultural labor, domestic service in a private home, employment by the Federal Government or a State or local government, railroad employment, employment in certain types of nonprofit organizations, family employment, and casual employment not in the course of the employer's trade or business.

Table 1.-Percentage distribution of men with wage credits in 1944 under old-age and survivors insurance, by age1 group for each industry

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24 Lumber and timber basic products..

25 Furniture and finished lumber products..

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43 Other transportation, except water transportation.. 44 Water transportation..

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26 Paper and allied products.

27 Printing, publishing, and allied industries.

28 Chemicals and allied products..

29 Products of petroleum and coal.

30 Rubber products....

32 Stone, clay, and glass products.

33 Iron and steel and their products...

34 Transportation equipment (except automobiles).

35 Nonferrous metals and their products..

36 Electrical machinery..

37 Machinery (except electrical).

38 Automobiles and automobile equipment.

39 Miscellaneous manufacturing industries...

Transportation, communication, and other public utili

ties...

41 Local railways and bus lines.

42 Trucking and warehousing for hire.

45 Services allied to transportation, not elsewhere classified..

46 Communication: telephone, telegraph, and related services.

48 Utilities: electric and gas.. Other....

Wholesale and retail trade...

50 Full-service and limited-function wholesalers.. 51 Wholesale distributors, other than full-service and limited-function wholesalers.

52 Wholesale and retail trade combined, not elsewhere classified...

53 Retail general merchandise..

54 Retail food and liquor stores..

55 Retail automotive.

56 Retail apparel and accessories..

57 Retail trade, not elsewhere classified.

58 Eating and drinking places....

59 Retail filling stations...

Finance, insurance, and real estate.

60 Banks and trust companies..

63 Insurance carriers.

64 Insurance agents, brokers, and services.

Real estate...

Service industries.

70 Hotels, rooming houses, camps, and other lodging

73 Business services, not elsewhere classified.

76 Miscellaneous repair services and hand trades.

21 78 Motion pictures..

79 Amusement and recreation and related services, not elsewhere classified..

80 Medical and other health services

86 Nonprofit membership organizations and institu

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772 100.0 11.7 9.1 404 100.0 13.3 6.9 327 100.0 14.3 6.3 9.0 10.5 420 100.0 17.6 3.7 5.3 688 100.0 7.1 7.1 11.0 14.3 220 100.0 6.4 5.8 9.3 184 100.0 10.4 7.5 12.1 12.6 198 100.0 13.4 44.9 6.6 8.3 370 100.0 13.2 7.0 9.0 10.7 10.0 11.3 9.9 1,635 100.0 7.5 6.2 10.5 12.9 12.8 11.9 10.2 10.0 8.3 5.7 2,661 100.0 5.6 8.4 14.6 16.0 13.6 12.0 10.0 7.7 5.7 3.8 444 100.0 7.4 7.5 11.6 13.3 13.1 11.2 10.1 9.6 7.2 4.8 4.1 38.9 664 100.0 9.3 7.5 12.1 14.6 13.6 11.3 9.2 8.4 7.2 3.9 3.0 37.4 1,240 100.0 7.6 6.7 11.1 12.7 12.5 11.5 9.8 322 100.0 5.6 6.5 13.7 13.9 13.2 11.4 330 100.0 11.6 7.2 11.7 10.6 10.2

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1,954 100.0 166 100.0

619 100.0

240 100.0

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47.5

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307 100.0 12.0 6.7 7.4 9.8 10.4 11.9 9.4 8.9 8.7 7.3 7.5 455 100.0 33.5 5.4 5.5 6.8 8.9 8.8 7.1 5.9 6.2 5.6 6.2 827 100.0 37.0 5.0 6.3 8.6 8.5 8.3 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.6 3.8 330 100.0 15.8 7.6 11.0 15.3 12.5 12.8 9.5 6.9 222 100.0 29.1 44.6 5.4 7.6 9.5 8.4 7.5 8.6 798 100.0 24.4 5.6 7.0 9.5 9.6 10. 2 9.4 7.6 6.5 750 100.0 16.7 5.3 6.5 8.4 9.5 11.2 11.2 10.1 8.9 185 100.0 32.1 9.9 12.5 10.6 9.9 8.4 5.2 44.1 42.9 8.1 11.8 13.7 13.4 11.9 10.4 6.6 12. 2 15.2 14.0 11.8 9.5 16.6 15.5 14.7 11.7 8.5 44.9 44.4 43.1 41.7 45.4 10.8 412. 9415.3 49.8 411.249.248.848.8 44.3

41.6

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31.0

45.8

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45.0

51.7

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40.0.

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ing this article. Moreover, they make available annual industry data showing not only number of workers but also amount of taxable wages classified by number of calendar quarters in covered employment and by annual wage-credit interval. From available punch cards it is also possible to tabulate data on number of workers in each industry by number of calendar years and quarters worked in covered employment since 1936, the cumulative amount of taxable wages received, and insurance status under the old-age and survivors insurance system. These data can be cross-classified, not only by age and industry, but also by sex, race, and State; and they can be still further classified to show the number of workers employed by only one employer, in only one industry, and in only one State. The detail with which significant break-downs can be made is limited chiefly by the size of the sample. The present article is confined to a discussion of the age distribution of workers classified by major industry group.

The data in tables 1 and 2 include persons whose period of covered employment was brief as well as those who received taxable wages in all 4 calendar quarters. For example, school children who worked only in their summer vacation, women whose employment was confined to the Christmas or Easter season, and persons who usually work in noncovered occupations but who had seasonal work in covered employment are all represented in addition to persons who regularly had covered jobs. It has been possible, however, to segregate the workers who received wage credits in all 4 quarters of the year; for the most part, they were full-time workers in covered employment. The 4quarter workers, of course, were classified in an industry in which they worked in the fourth quarter of the year.

In the regular annual tabulations from which the present data have been obtained, workers have been classified according to the first 2 digits of a 4-digit industry code punched in the tabulating cards. For a detailed description of the industry classifications, see Social Security Board, Industrial Classification Code: Vol. 1, Description of Industries, 1942.

The age distributions shown by the present data are substantially affected by the large proportion of the population aged 20-35 that was in the armed forces and the unusually large number of older men and middle-aged and older women who were working in covered employment in 1944. As a result of this wartime situation the proportion both of men and of women in age groups from 20 to 34 was considerably smaller in 1944 than in 1940, while the proportions under age 20 and in age groups over 35 were comparatively large. The greatest increase was in the relative number under age 20. In 1940, only 7 percent of the men and 12 percent of the women were under 20; in 1944, the corresponding proportions were 13 and 18 percent. In the older groups the increases were largest in the ages 50-64 for men and 45-59 for women. For men the proportion aged 65 and over was also substantially larger-4.5 percent as against 2.5 percent; the corresponding proportions for women were 1.0 percent and 0.7 percent.

Another factor to be considered in analyzing these data is the large wartime expansion of some industries and the contraction of others. The age distribution of workers in an industry that has expanded rapidly is substantially affected by the age composition of the newly recruited employees; the proportion of workers in the younger age groups is likely to be unusually large. On the other hand, an industry that has not expanded or has actually contracted is likely to have employees with an unusually high average age. Since the end of the war the shifting of workers from war production to peacetime employment probably has resulted in important changes in the age distribution in some industries. These effects of expansion and contraction are also significant in peacetime, and they have important consequences for retirement systems limited to single industries.

Because of the large difference between the age distributions of men and women in covered employment, the two sex groups will be discussed separately in the following analysis, which deals first with broad industry divisions and then with the major industry groups within each division.

Broad Industry Divisions

In the seven broad industry divisions, the men who received taxable wages in 1944 in finance, insurance, and real estate were oldest as a group (table 1). Half of them were over 47 years of age. Next oldest were the men working in mining and in contract construction; in each of these industry divisions the median age was 41. The industry divisions with the youngest median age for men37 years were transportation, communication, and other public utilities; wholesale and retail trade; and the service industries.

The extent to which workers in the various industry divisions were concentrated in the older age groups is indicated by the third-quartile agethe age exceeded by exactly onefourth of the workers in the industry. Twenty-five percent of all men employed in finance, insurance, and real estate in 1944 were over age 57; the corresponding age for contract construction was 52 years and for the mining industries, 51 years. The youngest third-quartile age for men in any of the industry divisions was 48 years, shown for transportation, communication, and other public utilities.

When the major industry divisions are arrayed according to the proportion of their male employees aged 65 and over in 1944, the highest in rank are finance, insurance, and real estate with 11 percent, and the service industries with 5.7 percent. Lowest in rank are transportation, communication, and other public utilities (2.9 percent) and mining (3.2 percent). In the proportion of men at ages 55-64, however, the mining industries (14 percent) and contract construction (14 percent) rank second only to finance, insurance, and real estate (19 percent). Men in this age group were relatively fewest in transportation, communication, and other public utilities (9.4 percent) and wholesale and retail trade (11 percent). There were notably large proportions of boys under age 20 in the service industries (23 percent) and in wholesale and retail trade (21 percent); manufacturing industries had the next highest proportion (10 percent).

Half of all men with wage credits in 1944 were employed in the manu

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