II. BIRTH RATES

The number of children born each year has varied considerably during the first half of this century. Birth rates declined during the first four decades, reaching an alltime low during the 1930's.

Between 1930 and 1939 fewer than 25 million babies were born in the United States.

During the 1940's nearly 32 million children were added to the population. In the last 6 years (1950-56) more than 23 million births have been recorded. Since 1930, when immigration became negligible, the birth rate has become the major factor in population growth.

If births continue at recent rates, our total population will rise to 190 million by 1965.

These changes in the national birth rate are having, and will continue to have, a significant impact upon the age composition of our population, the size of our available labor force and the volume and characteristics of the products and services which will be required by our growing population.

III. SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION

Fluctuations in the birth rate over the past 25 years largely determine the size of the various age groups within our total population-at the present time and for years to come.

Today most of our children begin their formal schooling at age 5 or 6. Most continue through high school (age 14-17). An increasing number go on to college (age 18-21). Many follow college with graduate work (up to age 24).

In 1945 1 out of every 4 persons was between 5 and 24 years of age. Today the ratio is nearly 1 out of 3. In 1965 almost 37 out of every 100 will be in these age groups.

The number of children between 5 and 13 years increased from 19.4 million in 1945 to 28.1 million in 1955; by 1965 they will rise to 35.7 million.

In 1945 there were 9.1 million boys and girls between the ages of 14 and 17 years. There was practically no increase in this age group over the past 10 years. But between 1955 and 1965 their number will increase by more than 5 million-from 9.2 to 14.3 million.

The number of young men and women between 18 and 24 actually declined over the past decade from 16.8 million to 15.1 million. In the next 10 years, however, this age group will expand by nearly 5 million.

These changes in the size and age composition of our youth population have important implications for our educational system.

The size of our school age population will change radically
during the next decade.

SCHOOL AGE POPULATION

Percent change in size of age groups

IV. THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

Nearly all children in this country between the ages of 5 and 13 years attend school.

Enrollments in the elementary grades totaled 23.7 million in 1930. By 1945 they had fallen to 20 million because of the low birth rates in the 1930's.

Between 1945 and 1955 elementary enrollments increased 38 percent to 27.7 million. By 1965 they are expected to soar to 35.7 million.

The elementary schools have already felt the impact of this rapidly growing number of students. We lack sufficient classrooms to house them. This is evidenced by overcrowded classes and double sessions in many of the lower grades. There is a shortage of qualified teachers. The demand for elementaryschool teachers in 1956 exceeds the supply of fully qualified teachers by an estimated 141,000.

During the next decade elementary and secondary schools will need 460,000 more teachers for additional enrollments--and 1,440,000 to replace those who leave the profession.

V. THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR HIGH SCHOOLS

Although the proportion of young people attending our high schools has risen during the past 25 years, the number enrolled in 1945 (6.2 million) was actually smaller than in 1940 (7.1million).

By 1955 high-school enrollments had climbed back to 7.4 million, but the secondary schools are only beginning to feel the impact of population growth which has already engulfed our elementary schools.

During the next 10 years high-school enrollments are expected to rise to 11.9 million-a whopping 60 percent increase.

It is vital to the future of our Nation that these boys and girls receive a good, sound basic education. The intelligence of our electorate and the quality of our labor force depend upon it. For basic education is the foundation upon which future creativeness, capacity, and skills are built.

VI. THE IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION

The need for college-trained people has increased greatly during recent years. Colleges and universities produce the scientists, engineers, teachers, physicians, and many other professional people upon whom depend the future technological development and the health and welfare of our population.

Enrollments in colleges and universities have increased steadily from 1.1 million in 1930 to nearly 2.8 million in 1955.

Despite this increase in enrollment, only 4 out of every 11 high school graduates who are qualified go to college. They either lack the necessary motivation to continue their education or are financially unable to pay for it.

By 1965 enrollments in institutions of higher education are expected to rise to 4.9 million-a 75-percent increase over 1955.

Colleges will be confronted with the same problems of increasing shortages of qualified instructors and inadequate facilities.