Senator CRANSTON. What I am really asking about is the prediction as to when one is going to happen. I presume there is no easy way to know when a forest fire is coming.

Mr. TRENT. I can defer to Mr. Chandler on that. I think maybe it is one of the hardest predictions to make.

Senator CRANSTON. Could you just say yes or no? I am trying to save Mr. Trent's time now. There is another vote, and I have about 5 more minutes here.

Mr. CHANDLER. It is hard.

Senator CRANSTON. Given the unpredictable nature, Mr. Trent, of so-called acts of God, do you think it is reasonable to have a rigid definition of the immediacy of the disaster threat? Except, perhaps, in the case of hurricanes?

Mr. TRENT. I am not sure that I understand the question.

Senator CRANSTON. Well, if it is very difficult to know and to predict when a disaster is coming, except in the case of a hurricane, do you think it is reasonable to have a rigid definition of the immediacy of a threat?

Mr. TRENT. No, sir. In fact, I don't believe the definitions that we have that pertain to any of these areas are established in such a rigid way as to hinder our flexibility.

Senator CRANSTON. Would you repeat that?

Mr. TRENT. I don't think any of the definitions that we have that pertain to the occurrence of disasters are such as to reduce the flexibility of the agency in being able to respond to situations that seem apparent.

Senator CRANSTON. The question, then, is whether the agency isn't being somewhat rigid in regard to this one, where predictions are difficult.

Mr. TRENT. I think I would refer back to the technical advice that we have introduced and the technical information that was available both from the State and the Forest Service at the time the earlier decision was made not to recommend the declaration or commitment of Federal funds for imminent disaster in this case.

Senator CRANSTON. If the disaster law were amended to require the President to consider the time it would take to remove the conditions which threaten to cause a disaster, might your decision be different about how imminent this particular disaster is?

Mr. TRENT. I would have to look at the proposed amendment. It would definitely change the situation.

Senator CRANSTON. I will try to submit a draft of the proposed amendment at once and see what your reaction is.

I understood you to say in your earlier testimony at the very outset that the Governor's report indicated the State and local agencies could bring fire hazard conditions within the previous year's level. Do you still maintain that in light of what Mr. Meese has said?

Mr. TRENT. I think the report, Mr. Chairman, would stand on its own merits. We have submitted that for the record. The sections I have quoted from are part of the report.

Senator CRANSTON. Apparently the Governor has had some change of the facts available to him which have led to a somewhat different view by him of the circumstances.

Mr. TRENT. My understanding is that the assessment that the Governor has made which led to his May 4 letter to the President is based on changes in the ability of State and local governments to commit funds to reduce the fire hazard that was part of the earlier analytical report.

Senator CRANSTON. Except for that one factor, a reassessment of local government's abilities, has anything happened since the application was first made to you for declaration of a disaster that changes the situation? Has anything happened that wasn't predictable at that time, and isn't the fact that the only thing that has happened is that more time has gone by?

Mr. TRENT. I believe on the basis of the statements made earlier by Mr. Meese and the meeting that we had, together with the communication from the Governor to the President that there is representation that additional facts are available, and one of the reasons for my trip to California and sitting down with the Governor's people to assess the situation is to look at the additional information that has been compiled. I couldn't comment in detail on that until I have a chance to review it.

Senator CRANSTON. Can you give any indication of how long this reappraisal of investigation would take?

Mr. TRENT. I plan to be in California early next week. I think on the basis of the information we have there, we will try to move as quickly as possible, understanding the absolute necessity of taking steps if they are in order to give assistance. Much will depend on the additional information and the evaluation of the technical people that we bring to bear on the case at this time.

Senator CRANSTON. I have no more questions. I want to again thank you for your patience and cooperation with us in regard to this hearing. While we are not at present in full agreement on all aspects of this, you have been most helpful, and I am delighted that you are reconsidering the matter and that you are going out there, and I hope we are going to wind up with aid.

We now have to recess briefly. I will be back as soon as I can, and we will proceed with the East Bay panel, and then we will get back to Mr. Chandler.

Thanks to each and all of you.

[Recess.]

Senator CRANSTON. The hearing will please come to order. At this point, I want to place in the record a statement by Congressman Jerome R. Waldie regarding this legislation and the threatened disaster in the East Bay. He wanted very much to be with us, but could not. He has a very fine statement which is a very good addition to our record.

[The complete statement of Congressman Waldie follows:]

STATEMENT OF JEROME R. WALDIE, REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS FROM THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA

Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, I appreciate the opportunity to add my full support to Senator Cranston's bill, S. 1697, to require the President

to furnish pre-disaster assistance in order to avert or lessen the effects of a major disaster in the counties of Alameda and Contra Costa in California.

There exists a grave and perilous problem in the East San Francisco Bay area, that of widespread threat of fire, which has resulted from the death of thousands of eucalyptus trees during December's freeze, and the President must come to the assistance of thousands of property owners who are now seriously threatened with destruction and possible death.

Governor Reagan's decision of April 4th to declare the area to be in a state of emergency came as a great relief to me. Because of this declaration, the Governor can make California Disaster Relief Funds available, release certain monies contained in the State Forester's budget, and make State coordination and planning resources available to the affected areas.

However, the problem cannot be totally solved at the State and local level, for sufficient funds are not available. Without Federal loans or other assistance, the cost of cutting and removing dead trees can run as much as $500 per tree, a figure which is exorbitant to private property owners. In some instances, the cost of removal represents more than the value of the land itself. And it appears that only the Office of Emergency Preparedness has enough funds within its budget to meet this need.

Title 42, Sec. 4431 (P.L. 91-606, Sec. 221) which relates to "pre-disaster" assistance, states:

"If the President determines that a major disaster is imminent, he is authorized to use Federal departments, agencies, and instrumentalities, and all other resources of the Federal Government to avert or lessen the effects of such disaster before its actual occurrence."

OEP is now interpreting this to mean that three conditions must be set before Federal funds and resources can be used. (1) The Governor of the State must request it. (2) The situation must have a high probability of becoming a "major disaster." (3) It must be reasonably certain to occur within one week of the formal request by the Governor.

Obviously, we can't meet the last criteria, since there is no way to determine when "one week before the disaster" will be. However, this doesn't mean that we don't have an imminent disaster on our hands.

The crux of the problem, then, is to have the interpretation of "imminent" changed so that aid can be immediately forthcoming. As far as I am concerned, all of the prerequisites have been met. There is no question but that the dead trees present a threat of a fire holocaust. The Governor has made a formal request to the President.

Clearly, the fire hazard posed is so great that a major disaster would be the only way to describe such an event once it had occurred. But the rigid interpretation by OEP requiring that such a disaster be only a week or less away is overly, and my view, unnecessarily restrictive in a situation such as this. It takes time to clear away 50 tons of highly combustible material. It is not done in a week. But a fire which destroys hundreds of homes and thousands of acres of property can take only a few hours, and can strike with little or no warning. OEP says that danger of a major fire in August or September does not meet the requirement of "imminent." But if the necessary measures will take up to six months to complete, how much more imminent can disaster be?

Federal assistance ought to be available right now to avert what could be a disaster of major proportions.

Senator CRANSTON. We will hear from the panel, consisting of William Hildebrand, chairman of the Inter-Agency Advisory Committee, assistant civil defense director, Alameda County, Calif.: Mr. Richard C. Trudeau, general manager, East Bay Regional Park District; Mr. Jay ver Lee, director, city of Oakland Park and Recreation Department; and Mrs. Marge Gibson, vice chairperson, Citizens Fire Hazard Committee, Oakland, Calif.

We are delighted to have each of you with us.

95-978-73-5

STATEMENT OF WILLIAM HILDEBRAND, CHAIRMAN OF THE INTER-AGENCY ADVISORY COMMITTEE, ASSISTANT CIVIL DEFENSE DIRECTOR, ALAMEDA COUNTY, CALIF.; RICHARD C. TRUDEAU, GENERAL MANAGER, EAST BAY REGIONAL PARK DISTRICT; JAY VER LEE, DIRECTOR, CITY OF OAKLAND PARK AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT; AND MARGE GIBSON, VICE CHAIRPERSON, CITIZENS FIRE HAZARD COMMITTEE, OAKLAND,

CALIF.

Mr. HILDEBRAND. Senator, I would like to defer to Mr. Trudeau. Mr. TRUDEAU. Senator Cranston, we are very, very pleased today that the committee has chosen to invite our testimony, and we hope that this and the other statements will be of assistance to you in securing the Federal assistance so urgently needed by the private citizens and public agencies alike in the calamity which has befallen us. I am Richard Trudeau, general manager, East Bay Regional Park District.

Senator CRANSTON. I want to now make a correction. Mrs. Marge Gibson is vice chairperson of the Citizens Fire Hazard Committee of Oakland.

Mr. TRUDEAU. We are here, I believe, to help you and others determine whether history will be permitted to repeat itself. As writer and philosopher George Santayana said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

Today in 1973, there exists a very ominous parallel with conditions which existed in 1922 and 1923, conditions which preceded the "great hill fire" of 1923 as indicated here from the Oakland Tribune, and which I would like to submit for the record.

[The information follows:]

[Article from Oakland Tribune]

PERIL OF THE OAKLAND HILLS
(By Louis Allen)

FIRE WILL SWEEP AWAY ALL OUR TREES THIS SUMMER UNLESS QUICK ACTION IS TAKEN TO CLEAN DEBRIS

Thousands of acres of splendid eucalyptus groves, much of it crowning the range of hills at the rear of Berkeley and Oakland, await almost certain destruction this summer unless the cities of Oakland and Berkeley, or hiking or civic clubs come to the rescue.

Fire, that bugaboo of the Berkeley hills last summer, promises greater conquests than ever this summer. Never within the memory of early day residents of the Eastbay cities have the conditions in the hills been so propitious for disastrous fires.

Last January the heaviest snows in thirty years visited this region. Over the hills to the eastward Jack Frost draped a beautiful snow mantle, and the weather so conspired as to keep the hills snow clad for almost a week, causing tremendous damage.

At the summit of Grizzly Peak the snow law from one to three feet deep. The great groves of eucalyptus trees, all set out within the past thirty years, carried heavy loads of snow for days, the weight gradually bearing the young branches earthward and finally breaking them. In many cases the slender, fast-growing eucalyptus trees snapped off half way between root and top, but in the majority of instances the broken limbs were those near the ground.

The consequence has been that the ground surrounding these trees has been literally strewn with broken off or almost severed branches.

DEVASTATION WIDESPREAD.

Wherever the hiker penetrates the higher reaches of the Berkeley and Contra Costa hills there he finds evidence of devastation. Even in the grove just south of the Berkeley Country Club the destruction is noticeable and the need urgent to clear away the fallen branches. But the most destructive work of the snow occurred in the higher portions of the hills.

It makes the hiker who loves trees sick at heart to see the destruction wrought in the grove at the northwest base of Little Grizzly Peak, the trees in all stages of destruction lining the north side of the regular trail leading from the Big C to Grizzly Peak. Here a side trail to the north and leading down into Wildcat Canyon is so strewn with broken off branches as to be almost obliterated.

Farther south along Chaparral Peak, which is the slight hillock about a half mile southeast of Grizzly Peak, the same evidence of broken down eucalyptus trees prevails. Everywhere is the clutter of snapped-off dead limbs and drying leaves, all waiting the moment when a spark lands among them to precipitate a fire that will sweep acres of valuable timber.

BROKEN LIMBS A BARRIER

Here and there along the whole ridge from Grizzly southward past Round Top and on to Redwood Peak are scattering clusters of eucalyptus trees, all more or less damaged by the snow visitation of last January. Particularly have the groves suffered to the south of Shepard Creek and eastward to the edge of the ridge looking down into Redwood Canyon.

So broken down were portions of the groves through which the trail wound that lead down into Redwood canyon, the advance guard of the Contra Costa Hills club on April 9, during the hike to Redwood canyon, had to chop away heavy limbs that had fallen across the trail. In some instances the hikers cut away the whole upper portion of a trunk that had been broken off and formed a barrier across the only trail available in the vicinity that led down into the canyon opposite Redwood Inn.

Practically all the eucalyptus trees now gracing the Berkeley and Contra Costa hills were set out within the past thirty years. Hence none of these swift-growing and none too hardy trees ever underwent such a trial as that of last January. There have been, of course, in other years snows in our hills to the eastward, but never before such heavy and long-continuing snows as last winter's. So never before have our eucalyptus trees been forced to face such damaging weather conditions as during the past year. Because the eucalyptus is not built to stand the heavy weight of snow that bore many branches to the ground and even broke off slender trunks, we find tons of debris strewing the ground in all directions in these groves.

HEAVY FIRES PREDICTED

Unless these broken off or partly broken off limbs are cleared away before the active forest fire season of mid-summer arrives, there will be fire losses that will make the fires that devastated Claremont canyon and hillsides along the Tunnel road last year seem puny indeed.

Boy Scout organizations wherever they make camp in the hills almost invariably clear away the broken timber in the vicinity of camp. Hiking clubs may also be depended on to clear away broken limbs wherever their trails lead, but in the nature of things such aid to the cause of preserving our beautiful hill coverings can only be of a desultory and insufficient character.

SNOWS OF LAST WINTER LAID WASTE THOUSANDS OF EUCALYPTUS TREES; Now A REAL FIRE DANGER

So severe, indeed, was last winter's snow visitation that even the hardy pines, trees always pictured in connection with snow and potent defiers of wintry blasts, succumbed to the onslaught, as witness many a limb wrenched from evergreens on the slopes of the Berkeley Alps.

In all likelihood the appreciable rains have ceased for the summer. From now on the hills will assume their summer tan under the merciless rays of the sun. The forests similarly will feel the drought, the ground around the trees boles will dry out and crack open, the grass will yellow, the bark of the trees will become dry, and the leaves parched. When fire enters under such conditions there