Page images
PDF
EPUB
[merged small][graphic][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed]

• Over the entire period, energy efficiency and renewable energy provided more than four-fifths (83.5 percent) of all new energy needs.

• Actual additional energy supply since 1973 has been almost exclusively provided by electricity generated by coal and nuclear.

• Petroleum consumption declined throughout most of the period, returning only to its 1973 consumption levels in 1996.

Figure 3 shows the impacts on carbon emissions of the changes in energy supply from 1973 through 1996. From 1973 through 1996, declines in oil use, combined with investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy, more than offset increases in greenhouse gas emissions from the increased use of coal to generate electricity.

In Figure 3, each bar shows the net additions (above 0.0) or subtractions (below 0.0) to carbon emissions each year from 1973 levels for coal, natural gas, oil, and energy efficiency plus renewable energy. Coal use, since it has increased each year except 1974 and 1975, has added to carbon emissions. Oil and natural gas consumption declined most years, which resulted in lower emissions. Energy efficiency and renewable energy resulted in the majority of avoided carbon emissions. Without the contributions from energy efficiency and renewable energy, carbon emissions today would be significantly higher.

The investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy by themselves

Past Contributions

[graphic]

saved 7,533 million metric tons of carbon (MMTC) over the 23-year period. This compares to 933 MMtC and 466 MMTC saved by cumulative reductions in natural gas and oil use, respectively. Over the same period, however, increased use of coal in electric generation resulted in 2,284 additional MMTC released into the atmosphere.

The net cumulative effect is that carbon emissions from additional economic growth-while higher by 885 MMTC-were 6,678 MMtC less than they would have been over the period had the United States not invested in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

[merged small][ocr errors][merged small][ocr errors][merged small]

These studies, using different methodologies and different scenarios (see next page), reach the same conclusion-substantial reductions in energy use and carbon emissions can be achieved by 2010 and 2025 at low cost and with positive benefits to the economy.

Figure 4 shows
the projected en-
ergy savings (in
quads) of the
three studies. By
2010, 12 to 16

quads of energy
could be saved,
which is 12 to
15 percent of the
energy that
would otherwise
be consumed."
By 2025, 36 to
45 quads could

be saved, or 33

[merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small]
[graphic]

It Doesn't Have to Hurt

SUMMARIES OF RECENT STUDIES ON REDUCING CARBON EMISSIONS

Scenarios of U.

Carbon ReductionsU.S. Department of Energy Scenarios quantifies the potential for energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies to reduce U.S. carbon emissions by 2010. Contributions from four sectors-buildings, transportation, industry, and electric power--are presented for three scenarios: (1) response to direct programs and polices to encourage adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies, (2) an increase in the relative price of carbon-emitting fuels by $25 or $50 per ton carbon, and (3) an aggressive program of targeted research and development.

The study uses a technology-by-technology and economic-engineering modeling approach. Energy-efficiency options are modeled in the buildings, transportation, and industry sectors. Conversion of coal plants to nature! gos, dispatching plants under $25 and $50 per ton carbon prices', and accelerating investment in biomass cofiring and wind are modeled for the electric sector. Additional options considered include advanced gas turbines in industry, transportation biofuels, and fuel cells in buildings.

The study's major conclusions are: (1) a vigorous national commitment to use energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies can reduce energy use sufficiently to lower carbon emissions to their 1990 level by 2010, (2) substantial additional savings in carbon emissions can be achieved if carbon is taxed or permit prices-under a cap and permit trading system-rise above $50 per ton carbon, (3) the energy and carbon emissions reductions can be achieved at savings nearly equal to or greater than costs, and (4) next generation technologies can continue the pace of carbon reductions over the next 15 years. Energy Innovations—Alliance, ACEEL,

HRDC, Tellus institute, and UCS Energy Innovations analyzes a balanced strategy for an economically and sustainable U.S. energy future. The strateg-called the Innovative Path comprises a set of pro

grams and policies of performance standards, incentives, information, and transaction cost reductions applied through 2030. Policy approaches include renewables content standards of electric supply, emissions performance standards through caps and an emissions trading system, advanced vehicles programs featuring higher fuel economy and emissions standards, an investment tax credit for industry investment in new manufacturing equipment, and market introduction incentives for new technology demonstration and adoption. Key technologies analyzed include fuel cells in vehicles and buildings, advanced gas turbines in industry, integrated green building designs, membrane technology in industrial processes, fuels and electricity from biomass, advanced wind turbines, and photovoltaic modules for homes and businesses.

The study used the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) developed by the Energy Information Administration (U.S. DOE). The Long-Range Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model was used to model the industrial sector, Parts of the transportation sector and renewables were also modeled off-line and incorporated in NEMS. Because NEMS only projects impacts to 2010, impacts through 2030 were modeled separately with sector-specific models. Overall economy impacts were obtained using the IMPLAN macroeconomic model.

The study's main results are: (1) energy consumption is 15 percent lower than business-as-usual (BAU) by 2010 and 42 percent lower by 2030, (2) renewables supply 14 percent of U.S. energy needs by 2010 and 32 percent by 2030, (3) energy efficiency and fuel-mix changes reduce CO emissions 10 percent below the 1990 level by 2010 compared to a 21 percent increase for BAU, (4) consumers save $58 billion (the difference between levelized capital costs and energy savings) in 2010, or $530 per household, and (5) the GDP is $2.8 billion larger and 773,000 more jobs are created by 2010.

'Per ton carbon prices could be substantially lower taking into account potential international carbon trade, and joint implementation mechanisms.

Past Contributions

[graphic]

Growing the Economy While
Protecting the Environment

Allence to Save Energy
Growing the Economy analyzes the impacts
on energy use, energy intensity, carbon
emissions, GDP (and its components), in-
dustry output and prices, and household
wealth of shifting taxes from income and
savings to energy and consumption. First,
energy externalities (damages from air pol-
lution and climate change) are used to set
taxes on fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural
gas). The amount of these taxes are offset
by a revenue-neutral reduction in income
taxes. Second, remaining income taxes are
eliminated and replaced again in a rev-
enue-neutral manner-by a consumption
tax levied on final sales of goods and ser
vices. Income from capital or financial in-
vestments is not taxed.

The analyses were conducted using an intertemporal general equilibrium model of anx the economy developed by professor Dale W. Jorgenson, Harvard University. The

model finds an optimal solution to tax policy changes. Energy, environmental, and economic impacts were modeled through 2025 and to 2060 for households. The model tracks impacts for 25 industries and 1,334 household categories.

The study's main long-run findings (2025) compared to BAU are: (1) fossil energy use will be 37 percent lower, (2) carbon emissions will be 44 percent lower (and 16 per cent lower than the 1990 level), (3) GDP will be almost 7 percent higher (consumption up 5 percent and investment up 14 percent), (4) average non-energy industry output will be 16 percent higher and prices 25 percent lower, and (5) coal and petroleum sales will decline while electricity output grows slowly and natural gas substitutes for coal use. Finally, household wealth (measured through 2060) will increase by an average $106,000.

A 414 MMC reduction would reduce carbon emissions from carbon dioxide to 12 percent below the 1990 level (1,372 MMTC). By 2025, carbon emissions could decline by 914 to 976 MMtC (44 to 54 percent) compared to projected business-as-usual emissions. These reductions result in carbon emissions 29 to 33 percent below the 1990 emissions level."

Figure 6 shows the energy consumption from 1995 to 2030 under a business-as-usual (the present path)

scenario. It also shows the scenario of energy efficiency, natural gas substitution for coal in electric generation, and penetration of advanced technologies (the "innovative" path). Without

[merged small][merged small][graphic][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][merged small][merged small]
[blocks in formation]

CARBON EMISSIONS: PRESENT PATH VERSUS INNOVATIVE PATH

(1995-2030)

2018

20:30

investment in energy efficiency and re

newable energy, energy use would rise from 85 quads in 1995 to 119 quads in 2030. Investing in energy efficiency would provide 51 quads of energy savings by 2030 and renewables would provide 7 quads.

Carbon emissions would decline below the 1990 level by 2010, according to the innovative path in Energy Innovations as shown in Figure 7. This path relies on the vigorous pursuit of energy efficiency, renewables, and the almost complete substitution by 2030 of natural gas for coal in electric generation.

Notes: BAU Business-as-Usual

Source ASE. et al. Energy Innovations, 1997.

[ocr errors][ocr errors]
« PreviousContinue »