States heavily dependent on exports of manufactured products suffer the loss of sales due to the experience by all developed countries. States with High Concentrations of Export Intensive Industries States heavily dependent on exports of manufactured products are California has a high share of output that is exported. This contributes to the 3.2% decline in California manufacturing employment from the baseline in 2010. Other states with exports representing a large share of output include: Washington, Illinois, Michigan, Texas, and New Jersey. GLOBAL WARMING: THE ECONOMIC COST OF EARLY ACTION Manufacturing Employment: Percent Difference from Baseline in 2010 GLOBAL WARMING: THE ECONOMIC COST OF EARLY ACTION Mining employment in heavy coal producing states plummets, led by West Virginia with a loss of 4.7 thousand jobs. Mining and Extraction Employment The carbon permit fee has a severe impact on mining and extraction industries. Nationally, employment in mining and extraction declines 7.4% by the year 2010 and 10.7% by the year 2020. Coal mining is particularly hard hit as the demand for coal declines precipitously from the base case by 2010. Mining employment in heavy coal producing states plummets. Mining job losses from the baseline in 2010 include: 4.7 thousand in West Virginia, 3.7 thousand in Wyoming and Ohio, 3.2 thousand in Kentucky, and 1.9 thousand in Montana. The regions with the largest concentration of employment in coal mining are hit the hardest. Employment in the oil and gas extraction industry is concentrated in the West South Central region. Mining job losses from the baseline in 2010 in the oil and gas extraction states include: 11.3 thousand in Texas, 5.7 thousand in Louisiana, and 4.3 thousand in Oklahoma. The regions that have a disproportionate share of employment in these industries are Mountain, West South Central, and East South Central. The table below shows the difference in employment for coal mining and oil & gas extraction from the base case in 2005, 2010, and 2020. Employment in coal mining declines the most in the Mountain region. Employment in oil and gas extraction declines the most in West South Central. Employment in Mining Employment Under a Carbon Stabilization Case (Difference from Baseline in Thousands) The industrial mix of the state is important as losses of high-paying manufacturing jobs in states such as Illinois reduce incomes by larger magnitudes The loss in personal Personal Income Under the Carbon Stabilization Case the impact on personal income across the nation would be similar to that on employment. This is because the levels of wage and salary incomes are directly affected by job losses. Thus, states that have both a large share of energy intensive manufacturing industries and are heavily dependent on exports of manufactured products will feel the brunt of the declines. The industrial mix of the state is important as losses of high-paying manufacturing jobs in states such as Illinois reduce incomes by larger magnitudes. States with mining and extraction industries are also affected by declines in the income of proprietors who eam profits from oil, gas, and coal. The accompanying table shows the percentage difference in manufacturing employment from the base case in 2005, 2010, and 2020. The most significant deviations in personal income from baseline projections in 2010 would be in Wyoming (2.3%), Arizona (2.2%) and Illinois (2.2%); the average national decline would be 1.5%. The loss in personal income in Illinois compared to the base case, would be $8.3 billion in the year 2010. State tax revenues would be severely impacted under the greenhouse gas abatement policy. The income declines that result under the Carbon Stabilization Case directly reduce the taxable income base upon which many state governments rely. In addition, declines in output and spending on goods and services reduce the sales tax base. GLOBAL WARMING: THE ECONOMIC COST OF EARLY ACTION |