Alley, Richard, Ph.D., Professor of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University Prepared statement Graedel, Thomas E., Ph.D., Professor of Industrial Ecology, Yale University 12 Janetos, Dr. Anthony C., Director, H. John Heinz III Center for Science, 15 Liverman, Dr. Diana M., Director, Latin American Studies Program, University of Arizona 16 Solow, Dr. Andrew, Associate Scientist and Director, Marine Policy Center, 16 2392 4 99 APPENDIX Lautenberg, Hon. Frank, U.S. Senator from New Jersey, prepared statement. Response to Written Questions Submitted by Hon. John F. Kerry to Response to written questions submitted by Hon. John McCain to Dr. Thomas Response to written questions submitted by Hon. Olympia J. Snowe to Dr. Snowe, Hon. Olympia J., U.S. Senator from Maine, prepared statement NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES' REVIEW OF THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM STRATEGIC PLAN WEDNESDAY, MAY 7, 2003 U.S. SENATE, COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION, Washington, DC. The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m. in room SR253, Russell Senate Office Building, Hon. John McCain, Chairman of the Committee, presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JOHN MCCAIN, U.S. SENATOR FROM ARIZONA The CHAIRMAN. It is reported that greenhouse gases are accumulating in the earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we would not rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Clearly, it is time for the Nation to demonstrate real leadership and make some notable progress on this critical issue. Earlier this year Senator Lieberman and I introduced S. 139, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, which would establish a mandatory carbon dioxide reduction program, along with an emission trading system. A market-based approach offers the best chance for the Nation to respond to a growing global environmental threat. We requested the Energy Information Administration to conduct an analysis of our climate change proposal. When the results are available, we will review and make appropriate changes and the latest inclusions on the emission levels and their associated costs. Yesterday the Senate began considering the energy legislation that if enacted, is expected to have an enormous impact on the Nation's future. However, I do not believe any energy legislation can be truly meaningful unless it seeks to address climate change. Therefore, it is my intention to offer a modified version of the Climate Stewardship Act as an amendment during the Senate's deliberations on the energy legislation. I suspect part of the amendment will be the beginning of a long congressional battle to bring about meaningful climate change policy. Today's hearing is a continuation of the Committee's ongoing consideration of climate change issues. Earlier this year we heard testimony from the Administration concerning its draft strategy plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Since that hearing, the National Academy of Sciences, at the request of the Administration, completed its review of the plan, which will be the main topic during this hearing. Also, we will consider the Academy's review of abrupt climate change. Abrupt climate change has been defined as taking place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it. The Academy's review also requested by the Administration, highlights the uncertainty associated with abrupt climate change. This is an interesting area of concern, because so many have concluded that the response to the climate systems of the increased levels of carbon dioxide is linear, therefore affording the world plenty of time to respond to it. I look forward to a frank discussion of the logic behind such assumptions. I welcome our witnesses here today and look forward to their testimony. Our witnesses today are Dr. Richard Alley, Professor of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, Earth System Science Center, at University Park, Pennsylvania; Dr. Thomas E. Graedel, Professor of Industrial Ecology at Yale University; Dr. Anthony C. Janetos, Director of the H. John Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment; Dr. Diana M. Liverman, Director of Latin American Studies Program, University of Arizona; and Dr. Andrew Solow, Associate Scientist and Director of the Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. Dr. Alley, we will begin with you. Thank you. I understand that maybe there is one statement for all, or does each choose to make a statement? STATEMENT OF RICHARD ALLEY PH.D., PROFESSOR OF GEOSCIENCES, PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY Dr. ALLEY. Two statements, and then additional words. I thank you for the opportunity to testify. I was chair of the committee at the National Academy of Sciences that released the report, Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. I am also teaching my elder daughter to drive right now. She spends most of her time trying to keep the car between the lines, left turns and parking, and things she must deal with every day. In addition, she is worried about issues such as, what happens if a drunk driver comes across the center line, things that are possible, things that could happen but may not happen, but would be so important that she should know about them. In exactly the same way, Professor Graedel will be discussing issues that are highly likely, and we will have to deal with these issues. The report from our committee was looking at things that have happened, that are possible, but that may not happen in my lifetime, or in my daughter's lifetime, but that will be so important that the committee believes that it would be useful for our society to understand them. The records of climate change are very clear. The climate acts as if it is controlled by a dial. You change the carbon dioxide a little bit, you change the sun a little bit, and the climate changes a little in a reasonably predictable way. Occasionally at various times in history, the climate acted as if it were controlled by a switch. A small pressure does not do anything; a slightly larger pressure and the climate jumps into a new state. These changes have been very large locally, as much as 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit. They have occurred very rapidly over a couple of years or fewer. They have affected regions of continents scaled to the whole world. And they have been very persistent once the climate gets into a new state, once the switch is flipped. It may remain that way for decades or centuries. It is clear from what we see that the big changes have occurred when the climate was being forced to change by slower processes, and so that at least raises the possibility that humans are increasing the likelihood of an abrupt climate change, not because there is anything inherently wrong with humans, but simply because we are pushing the climate system to change. The research program that is examined by the committee that I chaired in many ways overlaps that research program that Professor Graedel will be discussing. It is distinct from it in certain ways, it includes a look at natural as well as human causes of climate change. It includes focus on looking for the switches in the climate system, the ones that would affect drought and its persistence in the grain belts, and the possibility of droughts much bigger than the dust bowl, the ones that would affect the stability of the Gulf Stream and its effect on climate. There is a focus on snow and ice, their changes. And there is also a focus on the history of climate, and something which has occurred must be possible. The committee also noted that while it is highly likely that we can say much better what is possible. What is likely, we cannot put forward from the research community something that is useful to policymakers. Predicting a switch is always difficult, when exactly will it flip, and so some uncertainty for climate change will persist. For that reason, the committee recommended research into possible ways to increase the bendability of society. Our history shows that when challenged by climate change or other factors, some societies have bent and others have broken. And the committee believes that bendability would be a good thing. There is more detail in my written testimony and in the report that we issued, and after the other statements I would be most happy to answer questions. [The prepared statement of Dr. Alley follows:] PREPARED STATEMENT OF RICHARD ALLEY, PH.D., PROFESSOR OF GEOSCIENCES, PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY Good morning. Thank you very much for this opportunity to testify. I am Richard Alley, a professor of geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and I served as chair of a recent committee of the National Academies that produced the report, "Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises." Most of the other testimony this morning focuses on climate change in the broad sense and how we as a nation can improve our understanding of change and our resiliency in responding to its impacts. My role is to focus on a piece of this puzzle: Abrupt climate change. What is Abrupt Climate Change? Just what do I mean by abrupt climate change? If you read the evidence hidden in ice cores and other records of what the climate was in the past, you will learn that the Earth has at times undergone large, abrupt, widespread and persistent changes in climate (see Figure 1, page 4). I'm talking about a change of as much |